The Defenses and Special Teams Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
The Big Two
- Minnesota Vikings: $4,300 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
Let’s bull rush.
The Purple People Eaters
Only the Ravens have allowed more pressured dropbacks than the Bills through two weeks. Josh Allen, in particular, has been pressured on a whopping 44.3% of his dropbacks, and his 11.8 quarterback rating (QBR) in those situations is the worst in the league (25 or more dropbacks), per Pro Football Focus.
The Vikings are expensive, but as massive 17-point home favorites, it’s a smash spot for a defense that carries the highest-projected sacks (3.0) in our NFL Models.
It’s a small sample for the rookie, but Allen has taken a sack on a slate-high 14.3% of his passing snaps this season. Per our Trends tool, similarly priced defenses with comparable Vegas data and projected sacks, have historically provided a +2.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency Rating.
Sacksonville
The status of Marcus Mariota (elbow) is still up in the air, so we should probably be on Jacksonville for all the same reasons Houston turned into the chalk last week.
The Jaguars are considerably more expensive, of course. But if Blaine Gabbert is announced as the Titans starter this week, few units in the league carry the type of upside that you get from rostering the Jags defense. I really don’t care that Gabbert has only one interception and has taken just one sack through two games — he carries a poor 8.5% sack rate and a 3.1% interception rate over his eight-year career. If recency bias has the public thinking Gabbert isn’t a quarterback to aggressively target in fantasy, I’m all about that in tournaments.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest NFL conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Running the Arc
Attack the edge.
Chicago Bears ($3,500 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel): It might not be long before we see the Bears priced up with the Vikings and Jaguars, and Chicago arguably has just as good of a pass rush. Khalil Mack’s12 pressures are tied for the second-most in the league through two weeks, while this week’s opposing quarterback Sam Bradford’s 25.8 QBR in those situations trails only Allen for the worst in the league so far this season.
Baltimore Ravens ($2,800 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel): Broncos QB Case Keenum has seen pressure on only 19.5% of his dropbacks this season, but a lot of that could be due to his recent opponents. Seattle and Oakland sit 26th and 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate, respectively, through the first two weeks per Football Outsiders.
Keenum takes care of the football for the most part with a below-average 2.2% interception rate over the past year, but Baltimore could make him a bit more uncomfortable. The Ravens carry a top-five sack projection in Models with a top-three DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Denver Broncos ($2,400 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel): With a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, the Broncos are an intriguing pivot option in the same game, as five-point road underdogs against the Ravens.
It’s typically -EV to roster a defense on the road in this situation, but Joe Flacco has averaged the third-most pass attempts (36.0) on the slate over the past year. Furthermore, the Broncos had the NFL’s seventh-best pass rush entering the season according to PFF. Pass-attempt volume and pressure can certainly be a recipe for a cheap defensive touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles ($3,000 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel): The Eagles are firmly in play as 6.5-point home favorites against the Colts. The concern is that Andrew Luck has been reluctant to push the ball downfield this season with a bottom-three 5.9 yards per attempt. That said, Luck has shown the willingness to take sacks in the past, providing a well above-average 7.0% sack rate in his last full season (2016).
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured above: Khalil Mack (52)
Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
