Seahawks vs. Vikings DFS Breakdown: It’s a Stars-and-Scrubs Slate on Sunday Night Football (Oct. 11)

NFL Week 5 features a Sunday Night Football contest between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks at 8:20 p.m. ET.

If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Russell Wilson at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $19,500 as opposed to $13,000.

FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.

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Studs

You can’t talk about studs in 2020 without talking about Wilson. He’s the front-runner for the MVP after racking up 16 touchdowns through his first four games, and he leads the league in a variety of different categories (completion percentage, touchdown percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, quarterback rating). Not only has he managed to keep his elite efficiency numbers despite an increase in volume in 2020, but he has actually improved in virtually every category across the board.

That has unsurprisingly translated to fantasy success. Wilson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first four games, and he’s scored at least 34.42 DraftKings points in three of those contests.

Wilson is in a solid spot today against the Vikings, who have shown some vulnerability against the pass this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.9 on DraftKings.

Additionally, the Seahawks are playing at home and are currently implied for 31.25 points, and Wilson has historically thrived in that scenario. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.26 in five career games with an implied team total of at least 29.5 in Seattle (per the Trends tool).

Wilson will almost undoubtedly be the highest-owned player on the slate — particularly at the Captain position — but he’s a very tough fade at the moment. He leads all players in floor, ceiling, and median projection in our NFL Models.

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the top options if you’re looking to stack the Seattle passing game. Both players are highly correlated with Wilson — Metcalf owns a correlation of +0.70, Lockett is +0.67 — and both players are also highly correlated with each other (+0.46). With that in mind, you can definitely load up stacks with all three players using our new multi-lineup tool:

Both players also have excellent individual matchups against the Vikings. Metcalf is expected to match up with Holton Hill, who has struggled to a dismal Pro Football Focus grade of 42.8 to start the season. Lockett should see plenty of Jeff Gladney, who hasn’t been much better (54.6).

It’s hard to separate these two players at the moment, but I’d give the slightest of edges to Lockett if you can only fit one on DraftKings. He’s $1,400 cheaper, and his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Dalvin Cook is the priciest option on the Vikings side. They have an old-school coach in Mike Zimmer, so it makes sense that they prefer an old-school style of football. The Vikings run the ball on 57% of their offensive snaps in one-score games, which is the top mark in the league by a wide margin. The league average is just 43% during one-score contests, and the Browns have been the second-most run-heavy team in that situation at just 52%.

Cook has unsurprisingly thrived in this offense. He’s logged at least 22 carries in each of his past two games, and he’s finished with at least 130 rushing yards in each contest. He’s also found the end zone three times over that time frame, resulting in an average of 30.75 DraftKings points per game.

Cook is definitely capable of contributing as a receiving out of the backfield, but he’s elite in positive-game script situations. That means I’m likely choosing between Cook and the Seattle passing offense. If one thrives, I expect the other to struggle.

The Vikings pass attack is also viable in this matchup. That starts with Kirk Cousins, who might be the most overpaid player in the NFL. Still, he has shown the ability to put up stats in good matchups, and Seattle certainly qualifies. Cousins leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +12.1 on DraftKings.

As good as this matchup is for Cousins, it might be even better for Adam Thielen. The Seahawks haven’t been able to stop anyone at the WR position this season:

The Seahawks have allowed 1,345 yards to opposing WRs this season.

That is 500 yards more than the next-closest team (Cleveland).

The season is only four weeks old.

— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) October 9, 2020

Thielen is coming off one of his best games of the season in his last contest, finishing with 10 targets, eight catches, 114 yards, and a touchdown. There are a LOT of expensive players to pay up for today, but Thielen is near the top of the list.

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Midrange

The stud section for this game is as loaded as we’ve seen all year, so the midrange section is a bit thin. There aren’t a ton of viable options priced between $5,000 and $8,000 on DraftKings, so it feels like a good day for a stars-and-scrubs build.

Justin Jefferson stands out as the one big exception. He has burst onto the scene over the past two weeks and could very well find himself in “stud” consideration in the near future. He’s finished with at least 103 receiving yards in back-to-back weeks, and he’s averaged 25.4 DraftKings points over that time frame.

Jefferson still isn’t an every-down player — he’s played on 78% and 77% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps the past two weeks — but he’s clearly making the most out of his playing time. He entered the league with a lot of promise after an excellent college career at LSU, and Player Profiler lists his closest NFL comp as Reggie Wayne. That’s pretty elite company.

His individual matchup in this contest should be even better than Thielen’s. Jefferson is expected to see a lot of Tre Flowers, who has been Seattle’s worst corner by a wide margin, according to PFF.

The only real downside with Jefferson is that he figures to be very chalky. It’s just so much easier to fit him in your lineup that the higher-priced players on the slate, so he should challenge for the top ownership on the slate.

Chris Carson also makes sense in this price range, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s coming off his largest workload of the season in his last game, finishing with 16 carries and four targets. He found the end zone twice in that contest, which is not all that surprising given his six red-zone opportunities (five carries and one target).

His involvement as a receiver has been a pleasant addition to his game from a fantasy perspective. He averaged just 2.5 catches for 17.7 yards per game in 2019, but he’s upped those figures to 3.8 catches for 28.3 yards through his first four games this season. He’s also scored three touchdowns through the air, which is the same number that he logged in his first three seasons combined. If he can continue to produce like that as a receiver out of the backfield, Carson could be looking at a career fantasy year.

After those two options, the players in this price range are pretty unappealing. David Moore seems way overpriced following an 18.5-DraftKings point performance in his last game, but that was clearly fluky. He saw just four targets but managed to score and record a 57-yard reception. The odds of both happening in the same game again are pretty slim.

Greg Olsen seems like a slightly better bet at $5,000 after leading the team with seven targets last week. That said, he was only able to turn those targets into five catches for 35 yards. He’s a touchdown-dependent player without much upside.

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Values & Punts

This is the area that is going to decide the slate. Everyone is going to load up on some combination of the studs, Jefferson, and Carson, which means everyone is also going to have to go dumpster diving to fill out their lineups. I would emphasize ownership more than anything else when looking at these players.

• Kickers and Defenses —These options always have some viability in the single-game format, but this doesn’t seem like a great slate for them. Both teams are expected to put up points, which doesn’t typically lead to success for defenses or kickers.
• Kyle Rudolph: $4,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel — Rudolph has been largely uninvolved in the Vikings’ passing game to start the season, but he has played on 70.0% of their offensive snaps. He also has a touchdown on the season and remains a viable red-zone target for Cousins.
• Alexander Mattison: $2,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel — Cook being a good option today doesn’t necessarily mean Mattison can’t also be productive. He’s seen at least two red-zone rushing attempts in three of four games this season, so he’s a cheap threat to score a touchdown.
• Freddie Swain: $1,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel — Swain is Seattle’s No. 4 wide receiver, but Wilson has been so good this season that Swain can find some success in that role. He’s played on 33.7% of the Seahawks snaps this year and found the end zone back in Week 2.
• Travis Homer: $1,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel — Homer served as Carson’s primary backup last week with Carlos Hyde out of the lineup and finished with four carries, one target, and a touchdown.
• Irv Smith: $200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel — Smith has garnered just one total target over the past two weeks, but he’s still seen plenty of playing time. He’s played on 60.3% of the Vikings offensive snaps this season, and anyone who’s on the field that much has viability at $200 on DraftKings.