Saints vs. Chargers DFS Breakdown: Can Kamara Be Stopped On Monday Night Football? (Oct. 12)

Week 5 features a Monday Night Football contest between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers, starting at 8:15 p.m. ET.

If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Alvin Kamara at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,000 as opposed to $12,000.

FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.

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Studs

Kamara is the most expensive player on the slate, leading all players in median and floor projection in our NFL Models. He has commanded an absolutely massive workload for the Saints with Michael Thomas out of the lineup for the fourth consecutive game. Thomas is apparently healthy enough to play following a high ankle sprain, but he’s been suspended after getting into an altercation during practice.

Thomas’ loss is undoubtedly Kamara’s gain. He’s garnered a whopping 35 targets through the first four weeks and racked up more yards as a receiver than he has a runner. That is extremely valuable from a fantasy perspective.

Kamara has also been one of the most productive players in the league around the goal line. He’s scored seven touchdowns, which is more than he racked up all of last season.

Kamara will almost certainly be the highest-owned player on the slate and likely be the highest owned Captain on DraftKings as well. With that in mind, I might look to utilize him more as a utility than a Captain simply for ownership purposes.

Drew Brees actually owns the top ceiling projection in our Models, and he has one of the best pure matchups on the slate. The Chargers have struggled on pass defense this season, ranking 18th in Football Outsiders‘ pass defense DVOA, which has translated into fantasy success for opposing quarterbacks. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.2 for Brees on DraftKings.

The Vegas data also points towards Brees being an appealing play. The Saints are currently implied for 28.25 points, and Brees has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.59 at home with a comparable implied team total (per the Trends tool).

Stacking Brees with Kamara will likely be the default strategy for most people in this contest — particularly with one in the Captain spot — so make sure to keep that in mind. If you choose to go that route, you’ll need to make sure you emphasize going with some contrarian options to round out your lineup.

Justin Herbert has gotten off to an excellent start to his career from a fantasy perspective. He’s averaged over 310 passing yards per game and displayed some ground ability. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first three games.

The Saints defense is a tough matchup — it currently ranks 11th in pass defense DVOA — but has actually been an above average fantasy matchup. Herbert owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.3 on DraftKings, which is the top mark on the slate.

Keenan Allen stands out as arguably my favorite target to pay up for tonight. He has been a hog with Herbert under center, logging at least 10 in each of his past three games. That includes a whopping 19 targets vs. the Panthers in Week 3, scoring at least 14.2 DraftKings points in all three contests.

He does the majority of his damage in the slot, which sets him up with a matchup vs. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. The Saints defender isn’t bad in coverage, but it’s definitely a matchup that Allen can win.

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Mid-range

The Saints aren’t the only team who will be without one of their top offensive weapons. The Chargers will miss Austin Ekeler, which leaves them without their starting running back.

That means Josh Kelley will likely be asked to fill that void. Kelley hasn’t been particularly effective to start his rookie season, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, but volume is king at the RB position. Kelley should see a solid handful of touches in this contest, which definitely gives him a path to fantasy relevance.

Hunter Henry has failed to return value in three of his first four games, but he remains highly involved in the Chargers offense. He’s logged at least seven targets in three of those contests.

The Saints have absolutely hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing TEs this season, giving Hunter an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6 on DraftKings. This is a potential breakout spot for him.

Henry would get a boost if Mike Williams is unable to suit up. He’s currently listed as questionable, but he was able to get in limited practice sessions on Friday and Saturday.

If he does return to the lineup, he has some appeal as a big-play threat at his current salary. Herbert has a huge arm, so he’s capable of taking advantage of Williams’ skill going deep.

The Saints have a trio of pass catchers in this range in Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook and Tre’Quan Smith. Cook is also listed as questionable and is considered a game-time decision, so make sure to monitor the inactives prior to setting your lineups.

Smith has emerged as the top WR in New Orleans sans Thomas. He is coming off a multiple touchdown game in Week 4 against the Lions. That said, Sanders looks like the better pure value at his current price tag. He’s also coming off his best game of the season in his last outing and draws a significantly easier matchup, according to Pro Football Focus.

Both WRs also have a positive correlation with each other, so you can definitely play them together in a stack with Brees.

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Values & Punts

• Kickers and Defenses: These options are always viable in the single-game format, and it should be noted the game total has decreased two points since opening. Lower-scoring games tend to favor kickers, who benefit when teams are unable to score touchdowns.
• Latavius Murray ($4,800 on DraftKings; $8,000 on FanDuel): He should be one of the most popular targets in this price range, especially coming off two TDs in his last game. Still, Murray’s production in that contest wasn’t all that flukey considering he’s logged at least 12 carries in three of his first four games. He’s an interesting pivot off Kamara, and you can theoretically play both guys together.
• Justin Jackson ($4,400 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel): Jackson looks like a better pure value today on FanDuel, and he could cut into Kelley’s workload a bit with Ekeler out of the lineup. Kelley has fumbled in back-to-back games, and nothing gets you benched in the NFL quicker than failing to hold on to the ball.
• Jalen Guyton ($4,200 on DraftKings; $7,000 on FanDuel): Guyton is an easy fade if Williams is active, but he played on 85% of the Chargers’ snaps last week. He only had one target in that contest, but he made it count with a 72-yard touchdown.
• Taysom Hill ($1,600 on DraftKings; $6,500 on FanDuel): I still can’t figure out why the Saints are so enamored with Hill, but it’s clear that he’s not going away. He saw the field for 20 snaps last week and logged two carries inside the red zone.
• Josh Hill ($800 on DraftKings; $5,500 on FanDuel): The TE spot for the Saints is interesting if Cook is ruled out. Most people flocked to Adam Trautman in that situation last week, but Hill saw a much larger share of the snaps (57% vs. 27%). Neither player was effective, but Hill looks like the better punt play if you want to go in that direction.