NFL Week 12 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Davante Adams at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,900 as opposed to $12,600.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
The Packers should be the main attraction in this contest. They’re currently favored by eight points, which gives them a massive edge in terms of implied team total. They also have the three highest-priced players on the slate.
It starts with Adams, who has been playing as well as anyone in football. He’s commanded a monster target share since returning to the lineup in Week 6, logging at least nine targets in all six contests. Overall, he’s grabbed 32.5% of the Packers’ targets, 36.5% of the receiving yards and 46.7% of the receiving touchdowns over the past year. That makes him the most valuable wide receiver in the league from a fantasy perspective.
Adams has been particularly dominant over his past five tilts. He’s scored at least 26.6 DraftKings points in four of those games, going for 19.6 points in the lone exception. His 32.08 DraftKings points average over that time is ridiculous.
The Green Bay star faces a stiff test this week against Chicago, which ranks third in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. That said, Adams is as matchup-proof as they come. Even if the Bears can limit his damage between the 20s, Adams should be able to make up for it by finding the end zone at least once.
Of course, Adams isn’t doing it by himself. He benefits from playing with Aaron Rodgers, who is putting together a dominant season in his own right. He’s tossed 29 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions, and his adjusted yards per attempt of 9.3 is his highest mark since winning the MVP back in 2014. He was excellent last week against a tough Colts defense, finishing with 311 passing yards and three touchdowns en route to 26.74 DraftKings points.
Historically, Rodgers has thrived as a home favorite. Most quarterbacks tend to do well in that situation, but Rodgers in particular has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.45 on DraftKings when favored by at least four points at home (per the Trends tool).
That said, the Bears have been much tougher on opposing quarterbacks this season than wide receivers. Rodgers owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.6 on DraftKings, which is the second-worst mark on the slate.
You can certainly stack Adams and Rodgers together — they own an elite correlation of +0.56 — but I would rather have Adams if I can only choose one. He’s been a lock for close to 10 targets regardless of matchup even if Rodgers’ passing efficiency is slightly reduced.
Aaron Jones rounds out the Packers’ stud options, and he’s an interesting player on this slate. Plenty of people will likely roster Jones with Adams and/or Rodgers, but history suggests that isn’t the best idea. Jones owns a correlation of -0.36 with Rodgers, and that mark drops to just -0.49 with Adams. In other words, his best games typically come at the expensive of his superstar teammates.
That means Jones is best used as a pivot away from the Packers’ passing attack. Unfortunately, his matchup vs. the Bears isn’t great either, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.9.
Still, investing in big favorites is typically +EV in fantasy, and opting for Jones over Adams and Rodgers should result in a unique lineup construction. If you do go that route, locking Jones in at Captain makes a lot of sense.
On the Bears side, Allen Robinson and Mitchell Trubisky stand out as the highest-priced options.
Robinson remains one of the most talented WRs in football, and he’s logged at least nine targets in back-to-back games. However, his overall fantasy production has suffered thanks to some terrible QB play. Trubisky should be an upgrade over Nick Foles – who was one of the worst QBs in football this season – but he’s still a big question mark.
Robinson is also going to have to deal with one of the toughest possible matchups. Jaire Alexander is an elite cover corner, and he should see plenty of Robinson in this matchup. This doesn’t set up as a true “shadow” situation, but Alexander has been known to move around the field a bit more than some of the other top corners in football.
Trubisky is the more appealing option of the duo. Despite the presence of Alexander, the Packers defense ranks just 19th in pass defense DVOA. Trubisky is also capable of making some plays with his legs, which is always appealing for a fantasy quarterback.
Midrange
David Montgomery missed the Bears’ last contest, but he’s expected to be a full-go following their bye in Week 11.
Montgomery has been a true workhorse back for the Bears since the injury to Tarik Cohen. He played on at least 81% of their offensive snaps in five straight weeks prior to getting hurt in Week 9 vs. the Titans, and he averaged 14.8 carries and 5.8 targets per game over that time frame.
Unfortunately, that hasn’t exactly translated into meaningful fantasy production. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings just once in his past seven games thanks to a combination of poor efficiency and the Bears’ lack of scoring opportunities. He’s averaged just 3.6 yards per attempt this season while scoring just two touchdowns.
After Montgomery, the options for the Bears get shaky in a hurry. Jimmy Graham and Darnell Mooney stand out as the next two players on the pricing spectrum, but both players are tough to trust.
Graham is coming off zero fantasy points in his last contest after failing to catch either of his two targets. His snaps were also down in that game, playing on a season-low 58% of the Bears’ offensive snaps.
Still, he could be an interesting buy-low target. He’s been a red zone threat all season – he’s already scored five touchdowns – and his price has dropped approximately -$2,000 on DraftKings.
Mooney played on every single snap for the Bears last week, but he still finished with just two targets, two catches, and three yards. His price has also decreased, but he doesn’t appear to have nearly the same scoring upside as Graham. He’s found the end zone just once in his past eight contests, which gives him a lower ceiling overall.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be an important player to monitor heading into this contest. He hurt his Achilles’ tendon during Thursday’s practice, which forced him to sit out Friday’s session. If he’s unable to suit up, it will open up some potential value options for the Packers.
Allan Lazard stands out as one of the biggest potential beneficiaries. He was eased back into action last week, but he served as the Packers’ clear No. 2 WR before getting injured in Week 3. He scored at least 18.2 DraftKings points in two of his first three contests, so he has nice upside if he returns to his pre-injury workload.
Even if MVS is active, Lazard stands out as an elite value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Robert Tonyan would be another candidate to see a few additional targets. That said, he’s been priced up after finishing with 15.4 DraftKings points last week vs. the Colts. That was his best game since all the way back in Week 3, so this seems like a nice opportunity to sell high.
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Quick Hits
- Defenses and Kickers — These options are always in play on the single-game format, and they could carry more value than usual in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
- Cordarrelle Patterson: $4,400 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel — Patterson seems way too expensive with Montgomery back in the lineup, but he’s capable of catching a few passes out of the backfield or scoring a touchdown on special teams.
- Jamaal Williams: $3,400 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel — Williams simply won’t go away. He continues to play a healthy amount of snaps for the Packers despite being inferior to Jones in virtually every category. The Packers also like to utilize him in the passing game, which gives him a solid correlation with Rodgers in stacks.
- Anthony Miller: $3,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel — Miller has quietly reasserted his claim as the No. 2 option in the Bears passing attack. He played on just 24 snaps last week, but he still finished with at least seven targets for the third straight week. His projected Plus/Minus trails only Rodgers’ in our NFL Models.
- Jace Sternberger: $2,200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel — The aren’t many appealing punt plays this week, but Sternberger could have some value. He finished with three targets last week, including one in the red zone.
- Cole Kmet: $800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel — The decrease in snaps for Graham led to a huge increase in snaps for Kmet. The second-round rookie played on 70% of the Bears offensive snaps last week after failing to crack 47% in each of his previous nine games. He finished with just one catch for seven yards, but a big game could be coming if he continues to see that much playing time.
