Buccaneers vs. Saints DFS Breakdown: Star WRs Return on Sunday Night Football (Nov. 8)

NFL Week 9 features a Sunday Night Football contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.

If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Alvin Kamara at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,800 as opposed to $11,200.

FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.

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Studs

We haven’t had the best stretch of primetime games recently, but this should be a good one. The Buccaneers currently lead the NFC South with a record of 6-2, but the Saints are just slightly behind at 5-2. The Saints won the first meeting between these two teams, so this is a big contest for both squads. If New Orleans wins again, not only it jump Tampa Bay in the standings, but it’ll also secure the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker.

From a fantasy perspective, there are a lot of studs to choose from. It starts with Kamara, who is the most expensive player on DraftKings. He has been a reliable fantasy option to start the year, scoring at least 19.9 DraftKings points in all seven games.

Where Kamara has really been making his money this season is in the passing game. He’s logged at least eight receptions in five of his past six games, and he currently ranks second in the league in terms of catches. Not too shabby for a running back.

Kamara leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of floor projection, but he could be a bit overpriced considering his ceiling. He’s a much stronger option today on FanDuel as the third-most expensive player on the slate.

The big reason for the ceiling concerns with Kamara is the return of Michael Thomas. His status hasn’t been officially confirmed, but it would be a shock if he was inactive for this contest. Thomas has missed every game since Week 1, and adding him back into the lineup means there will be fewer targets to go around for the rest of the roster.

Thomas has been nothing short of a target hog over the past three seasons. He’s seen at least 147 targets in each, and he’s led the league in receptions in each of the past two. Thomas’ targets don’t necessarily have to come at the expense of Kamara, but both players unsurprisingly have a negative correlation (-0.14). Pairing both players with Drew Brees as part of a Saints’ stack is an option, but I would probably choose one or the other in most instances.

Brees could be the big winner with Thomas back in the lineup. His numbers are down this season — his 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt is his lowest mark since 2016 — but he hasn’t exactly had a ton of help. Not only has Thomas been out of the lineup, but so have pass-catchers like Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook.

That could make Brees an interesting buy-low candidate this week, but keep in mind that he has some drastic home/road splits. He’s historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.49 when playing in New Orleans, but that mark drops to just -2.65 when playing on the road (per the Trends tool). The Bucs defense has also been an absolute buzzsaw this season, giving Brees an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.3.

On the Tampa Bay side, Tom Brady stands out as one of the top studs on the slate. He currently leads all players in terms of ceiling projection, and he also leads all players in terms of projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Brady didn’t look sharp last week against the Giants — he finished with just 19.06 DraftKings points — but I think we can give him a pass. That game was on the road in a clear “look ahead” spot, and Brady was also playing without one of his top receivers. Jaydon Mickens led the team with eight targets last week, so Brady will undoubtedly have better weapons at his disposal tonight.

Brady also has the best matchup among the stud group. The Saints’ defense is solid, but it’s been significantly better against the run than they have against the pass. It ranks 13th in Football Outsiders‘ pass defense DVOA, and Brady leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.7 on DraftKings.

Midrange

The big question on today’s slate is how to approach the Bucs’ trio of elite pass catchers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown are all expected to be active for the first time this season, so we have no real clue where they rank in the pecking order.

Evans is the most expensive option of the group on DraftKings, but he’s hard to trust at the moment. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of eight games this season, and both of those performances have come with Godwin out of the lineup. Evans has logged just 7.7 total DraftKings points in his past two games with Godwin active, and he’s seen just two targets in each of those contests.

That said, Evans might have the best individual matchup of the trio. He’s expected to run the majority of his routes against Marshon Lattimore, who has posted the worst Pro Football Focus grade among the Saints’ corners. Evans clearly has a bunch of downside with Godwin healthy, but he has some upside as well.

Godwin is next up on the pricing spectrum, and his $7,600 salary seems like a steal on DraftKings. He hasn’t been priced below $8,600 in the showdown format this season, and his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Godwin also owns a ridiculous +0.98 correlation with Tom Brady. That’s obviously over a small sample size, but both players have clearly found success in the same contests this season. That makes them an obvious stack choice.

Brown is the wild card here. He was one of the best receivers in football during his time with the Steelers, but that feels like ages ago. Still, it’s clear that Brady absolutely loves this guy. Brown finished with four catches for 56 yards in a touchdown in his only game last season, and Brady desperately wanted Brown to end up in Tampa with him this year — he’s even letting the guy stay at his house! I’ve heard of the shower narrative, but never the home shower narrative.

Brown is clearly the biggest risk among the trio, and he owns one of the worst projected Plus/Minus marks on the slate, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him find success with Brady. He loves to throw the underneath passes, and Brown represents a clear upgrade over guys like Mickens and Scotty Miller.

The next big decision you have to make is how to approach the Bucs’ RBs. That said, it looks like Leonard Fournette has established himself as the clear top option.

Fournette played on 73% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps last week, and he led the team with 15 rushing attempts. He’s also become a fixture in the passing game over the past two weeks, logging at least six targets in each contest. The only thing he hasn’t done recently is find the end zone, but he’s still averaged 12.9 DraftKings points over his past two games. He has excellent upside if he can score this week.

The emergence of Fournette makes Ronald Jones a very risky option. He was banished to the bench after fumbling against the Giants last week and played on just 17 total snaps. He unsurprisingly struggled to find success given such a low snap share, finishing with just 7.6 DraftKings points.

That said, Jones was operating as the Bucs’ top RB prior to fumbling, so it’s possible that head coach Bruce Arians goes back to him this week. His price has come way down across the industry and he should command minimal ownership, which makes him an interesting contrarian play for tournaments.

Rounding out the Bucs’ offense is Rob Gronkowski, who has looked good over his past few games. He’s now scored a touchdown in three straight weeks and has scored at least 14.1 DraftKings points in all three of those contests. His role could shrink with Brown now in the rotation, but Gronk has been Brady’s guy for a long time. He should still be involved near the goal line at a minimum.

On the Saints side, Taysom Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jared Cook are all priced in this range on DraftKings.

Hill remains one of the most frustrating players in football. I have no idea why Sean Payton loves this guy so much, but it’s clear that he’s not going anywhere at this point. He’s way too expensive at $6,000 on DraftKings, but he’s a solid option at $6,500 on FanDuel. He should see some snaps as a wildcat QB near the goal line and has the potential to catch a pass or two as well.

Sanders and Cook make more sense in this price range, although both players have to be downgraded with Thomas back in the lineup. Thomas and Kamara should command most of the Saints’ opportunities, which leaves Sanders and Cook to fight over the scraps. That said, both players should still see plenty of snaps and have the potential to provide value if they find the end zone.

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Quick Hits

• Kickers and Defenses — These options are always in play in the single-game format. That said, they tend to have more viability on lower-scoring slates. You’ll also want to make sure that your lineups are still positively correlated if you choose to include a kicker or defense.
• Scotty Miller: $4,600 on DraftKings, $11,000 on FanDuel – Miller looks to be way down the list in terms of targets at the moment, but he should still see a handful of snaps this week.
• Tre’Quan Smith: $3,400 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel – Smith is another player who has had some viability this season but should take a backseat now that the Saints are healthier.
• Latavius Murray: $2,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – The value options are thin today, but Murray stands out as one of the best. He’s carved out a decent role as a runner, and he continues to receive looks in the red zone. He could be a cheap source of a touchdown on today’s slate.
• Cameron Brate: $1,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Brate played on just 12 snaps last week, but he still finished with two catches for 35 yards. His role should be largely unchanged with the addition of Godwin and Brown, so he still has the potential to post a positive Plus/Minus at his minimal salary.
• Deonte Harris: $1,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Harris will likely be headed to a reserve role this week, but he’s still the type of player who can turn any touch into a score. Expect the Saints to design at least one gadget play to get the ball into his hands in space.