NFL Week 9 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Aaron Rodgers at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,500 as opposed to $11,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
The big theme in this contest is injuries. The 49ers are dealing with a host of injuries at virtually every position, while the Packers are expected to be without Aaron Jones for the third straight game. Jones hasn’t been officially ruled out yet after getting in a limited practice on Tuesday, but the Packers are “pessimistic” that he’ll be able to suit up.
With that in mind, it’s going to be pretty easy to fit in virtually whoever you want on this slate. Keep that in mind when building your lineups, and don’t be afraid to leave more salary on the table than usual. If you do pay up for close to the full salary cap, there’s an increased chance of a duplicated lineup since there’s only so many combinations that will allow you to do that.
Davante Adams is the highest-priced player on this slate, and he’s been an absolute monster recently. He’s scored at least 30.3 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks, and he’s seen at least 12 targets in both contests. That continues to trend of Adams garnering one of the highest target market shares in football, and he’s seen double digit targets in each of his past nine full games dating back to last season.
Adams is highly involved all over the field, but his red zone usage is particularly encouraging. He’s seen at least three targets in the red zone in each of his past two games, and four of his five touchdowns over that time frame have come inside the 20. Overall, only two players have seen more targets inside the red zone than Adams this season despite the fact that he’s played in essentially just four games this season. That’s pretty ridiculous.
Adams will face one of his toughest tests of the year this week vs. Jason Varrett, who is expected to shadow him in this contest. That said, I wouldn’t be afraid to play Adams against any corner in the league at this point.
Rodgers is slightly cheaper than Adams across the industry, but he owns the highest median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models. There was talk heading into this season that Rodgers was on the decline, but he has silenced his critics in a big way to start the season. He’s posted an adjusted yards per attempt of 9.1 through his first seven games, which is his best mark since winning the MVP all the way back in 2014. He’s also racked up 20 touchdown passes compared to just two interceptions.
The injury to Jones has worked in his favor from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of the past two weeks, posting an average of 25.43 DraftKings points per game. His matchup vs. the 49ers isn’t as friendly as some of the others that he’s had recently, but this isn’t the same 49ers’ defense given all their injuries.
The Packers are also 7.5-point favorites despite being on the road, giving Rodgers an implied team total of 27.75 points. Rodgers hasn’t exactly crushed as a road favorite historically – he’s actually averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.55 in that situation (per the Trends tool) – but the Packers still seem like the clear team to target on today’s slate.
Pairing Rodgers and Adams together will likely be extremely chalky, but I’m not sure how to avoid it. Not only are they the two best fantasy options on the slate by a wide margin, but they are also highly correlated. They own a correlation of +0.62 on DraftKings, which is an excellent mark even by QB-WR standards.
On the 49ers side, the only player even in “stud” consideration is Nick Mullens, who will draw the start in place of Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is dealing with a high ankle sprain that is expected to keep him sidelined for at least the next four weeks.
Mullens has had some success in the past when given the opportunity to start, but he’s had two very different results so far in 2020. He was excellent in his first start of the year, racking up 343 passing yards and 20.72 DraftKings points, but he was so poor in his second start that he was actually benched for C.J. Beathard.
So which version of Mullens shows up today? It’s impossible to know for sure, but the Packers do represent an excellent matchup. They’ve struggled vs. the pass this season, ranking just 25th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. He’ll be throwing to a bunch of relatively unknown players in the passing game, but he does have a chance for success.
Mullens stands out in particular on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 89%.
Midrange
The stud plays are limited on today’s slate, but the midrange is even thinner. There are only five options priced between $5,200 and $8,000 on DraftKings, and one of those is the Packers’ defense. None of these plays are really popping in our NFL Models at the moment, and it makes sense when you think about it.
These players don’t possess nearly the same ceiling as the stud options, and they also aren’t as strong from a value perspective as the cheaper plays. That gives this slate the same feel as an NBA showdown contest, and stars and scrubs is almost always the preferred lineup construction in that format.
Jerick McKinnon and JaMychal Hasty are both options in this price range, and they’re expected to handle the bulk of the RB snaps for the 49ers. They do stand out from a matchup perspective – they lead the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.1 – and Dalvin Cook absolutely torched the Packers last week for nearly 200 total yards and four touchdowns.
Of course, neither of these players in the same ballpark as Cook. They split the RB snaps basically down the middle last week – McKinnon played on 35 snaps, Hasty 29 – but Hasty saw nine additional carries. McKinnon was able to make up some of the work in passing situations, but it seems like Hasty should get the majority of the rushing opportunities if this game stays competitive.
Allan Lazard is expected to come off IR this week, and he should step right back into his No. 2 WR role for the Packers. He was producing well prior to getting injured, but his best performance came with Adams out of the lineup. It will be interesting to see how big of a role he can carve out for himself with Adams back at full strength.
Robert Tonyan rounds out the Packers’ pass catching options in this price range, and he’s coming off a season-high seven targets last week vs. the Vikings. He finished with 12.9 DraftKings points thanks to five catches and 79 yards, and the only thing he did do was find the endzone. He has scored in three previous contests this season, so he has upside if he can put it all together.
Injury Values
This is a new category specifically for this contest because there are going to be a few “free squares” to choose from. You don’t necessarily have to play all of these guys, but there are three players that are popping as the clear best values on the slate in our NFL Models.
The first is Trent Taylor, who is priced at just $400 on DraftKings. He is basically the last man standing for the 49ers, who have lost George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kendrick Bourne to injuries or COVID-19 for this contest. They even released Dante Pettis, so Taylor has virtually no competition for snaps at the WR position. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him approach 100% of the snaps on today’s slate.
He leads all players on the slate with a projected Plus/Minus of +8.25 and has a good chance to be Mullens’ favorite target.
The Packers’ RB situation is another extreme source of value. If Jones is out, it will leave the team without their top three options at the position. Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon have already been ruled out for this contest, which leaves Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams as the remaining running backs on the roster.
Ervin has had a role as a gadget player this year and chipped in as a WR while the team was dealing with a bunch of injuries at the position. Williams is a practice squad player, but he’s more of a traditional running back. His athletic measurables and college production is decent – his closest comp according to Player Profiler is Knowshon Moreno – so I would expect him to serve as the Packers’ early-down running back.
It’s a close call between Ervin and Williams overall, but Ervin does own the superior projections in our Models. His role as a pass catcher means he has the potential to rack up more PPR points than Williams even if he finishes with less opportunities.
Values & Punts
These players should all command less ownership than usual today. Locking in Taylor and one of the Packers’ RBs means you can comfortably fit whoever else you want in the rest of your lineup. Even if you pay up for Adams at Captain, you can still surround him with the three highest-priced flex players.
That makes this area interesting from a game theory perspective. Ditching Taylor or one of the Packers’ RBs for one of these players will greatly increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup.
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. I would expect the Packers’ D to carry moderate ownership against Mullens, but none of these other options should be popular.
- Ross Dwelley: $4,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Dwelley should be a bit more contrarian than Taylor for the 49ers, but he has arguably just as good of a shot to lead the team in targets. If Jordan Reed is inactive – he’s currently listed as questionable – he should see a bunch of snaps as the 49ers’ top TE.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: $3,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – MVS was operating as the Packers clear No. 3 WR with both Adams and Lazard healthy, but he does have some appeal given his ability to catch a long touchdown. He finished with four catches for 96 yards and a touchdown in the only full game that Adams and Lazard have played together this season.
- Kevin White: $200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel – White is still in the NFL apparently and has a chance to play after getting called up from the 49ers’ practice squad. He was a major flameout during his time in Chicago, but any healthy body has a shot this week for the 49ers.
- Richie James: $200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel – He’s another potential pass catcher for Mullens tonight. That’s really all that needs to be said.
Pictured above: Nick Mullens #4
Photo Credit: Abbie Parr/Getty Images
