NFL Week 4 features a Sunday Night Football contest between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Carson Wentz at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $15,600 as opposed to $10,400.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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The Deebo Samuel Dilemma
For the first time all season, this piece will not start by focusing on the studs. Instead, we have to focus on Deebo Samuel.
Samuel is expected to make his debut after missing the first three games of the season. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said he will be eased into the offense, but he still figures to be the 49ers No. 1 wide receiver after an impressive rookie year.
A limited snap count might be an issue at his normal salary, but he’s been priced at just $200 on DraftKings. That is a salary typically reserved for guys like backup tight ends and fifth-string wide receivers. With that in mind, how can you avoid him on this slate?
He’s currently projected for a Plus/Minus of +9.41 on DraftKings in our NFL Models, which is the top mark on the slate by a ridiculous margin. Things get even crazier when looking at his points per dollar projection. He’s projected to score 5.67 DraftKings points for every $100 of salary, and no one else on DraftKings is above 0.81. Samuel is going to command crazy ownership at this price tag, but this seems like too good of a value to pass up.
The more interesting question is if you can roster him at Captain. That will run you just $300, which leaves an average of more than $9,900 for the five remaining flexes. That means you can literally pair him with the five most expensive players on the slate and still have plenty of salary cap left over. I wouldn’t recommend doing that — that lineup will likely be highly duplicated, which is definitely a -EV decision — but you can get a little creative and leave a bunch of salary on the table without sacrificing much upside.
I would personally feel more comfortable playing him at utility, which still allows you to do a lot with your remaining lineup, but keep in mind that you’re going to need to be a little more cognizant of ownership than usual. Samuel is basically a free square, which means that you’re essentially playing with five lineup spots instead of six on DraftKings in this contest.
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Studs
Wentz is the most expensive player on today’s slate, and he’s coming off his best game of the season in his last outing. He racked up 23.5 DraftKings points, thanks in part to his 65 yards and one touchdown on the ground. That seems like a bit of an outlier for Wentz, who has averaged just 14.6 rushing yards per game to start his career.
He’s been forced to run a bit more than usual given the sheer disarray of his offensive line. The Eagles are currently down three starters in the group, and they rank just 22nd in terms of adjusted sack rate this season.
Luckily, the 49ers might not be able to exploit this weakness. They’ve been hit hard by injuries of their own, particularly on the defensive line. Nick Bosa and Dee Ford are both out with long-term injuries, which means they’re without three of their top four players in terms of sacks from last season when factoring in the offseason departure of DeForest Buckner. The 49ers are still a tough matchup — Wentz owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.3 on DraftKings — but he ranks second on the slate in terms of ceiling projection. Value isn’t as important as usual given the presence of Samuel, so Wentz deserves heavy consideration just by virtue of being a quarterback.
Nick Mullens will draw his second straight start for the 49ers, and he was impressive last week against the Giants. He finished with 20.72 DraftKings points, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +5.79. Mullens has actually been a solid fantasy QB when given the chance to start, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.73 (per the Trends tool).
He draws a significantly easier matchup than Wentz, with the Eagles currently ranking just 23rd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. He also benefits from getting to play as a home favorite, and QBs in that situation have historically provided solid fantasy value. Pairing Mullens with Wentz is very easy on today’s slate, but Mullens owns the top ceiling and median projections in our NFL Models. That makes him the preferred choice at the Captain spot on DraftKings.
After the QBs, Miles Sanders stands out as the top fantasy option in this matchup. He’s been highly involved as a runner and a pass-catcher to start the season, averaging 19 carries and 7.5 targets through his first two games. He’s also shown better efficiency as a runner in his second season, increasing his average to 5.0 yards per carry.
The biggest boost to his fantasy stock has been the removal of Jordan Howard from the RB equation. Howard was the Eagles’ preferred goal-line option last season, but Sanders has that role all to himself in 2020. He’s already logged seven carries inside the red zone this year after garnering just 31 in all of 2019.
George Kittle is actually slightly more expensive than Sanders on DraftKings, and he’s ready to “let it loose” after missing the past two games with a knee injury. He practiced in full this week, so there’s no reason to expect him to be limited in this contest.
His matchup vs. the Eagles doesn’t look great on paper — he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.00 on FanDuel — but it may not be as bad as it seems. In fact, Football Outsiders has Philly just 29th in terms of DVOA vs. the tight end position to start the season. Some DFS players might be cautious with Kittle coming off an injury, so his ownership may be a bit lower than expected. That makes him pretty interesting for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
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Midrange
The 49ers’ run game is a bit muddled at the moment. Their top two backs are both out with injuries, but that didn’t stop them from employing a committee situation in Week 3 vs. the Giants. Jerick McKinnon finished with 14 rush attempts and four targets, while Jeff Wilson finished with 12 attempts and three targets. Both players found the end zone in that contest, so both put together solid fantasy days.
That said, McKinnon is the clear target in this backfield. Seven of Wilson’s carries and all three of his targets came in the fourth quarter after the 49ers already had a comfortable lead. McKinnon also out-snapped Wilson 48-23, so he was the 49ers’ top choice while the game was still in question.
McKinnon is only a bit more expensive than Wilson across the industry, but I think he’s well worth the additional salary.
The Eagles really only have two players in this price range today: Zach Ertz and Greg Ward. Both players stand out as excellent values given the injuries that the Eagles have sustained to their pass-catchers. They’re currently down their top three WRs in Jalen Reagor, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffrey, and TE Dallas Goedert is also sidelined. That leaves Ertz and Ward to handle the majority of the targets.
Both players were highly involved last week. Ward led the team with 11 targets, while Ertz wasn’t far behind with 10. Overall, Ward, Ertz, and Sanders combined for 29 targets, while no one else on the team had more than four. The fact that this passing attack is so concentrated makes them a very appealing stack in this matchup.
Brandon Aiyuk is also available in this range for the 49ers, and he was very impressive last week against the Giants. He finished with eight targets and three rushing attempts, and he managed to take one of those carries into the end zone.
It remains to be seen how much the return of Samuel will impact Aiyuk’s fantasy value, but he seems pretty entrenched as the 49ers’ No. 2 WR.
Values & Punts
- Defenses & Kickers — These options are always in play in the single-game format. That said, you’ll want to make sure that your lineups are positively correlated if you do roster any of the defenses or kickers. For example, Wentz has a correlation of -0.12 with the Eagles defense, so you probably don’t want to play them together.
- Kendrick Bourne: $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel — Bourne is a bit too expensive on DraftKings with Samuel back in the lineup, but he looks like a nice value on FanDuel. He’s one of the 49ers’ best options in the red zone, so he’s always a threat to score.
- Boston Scott: $2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — One way the Eagles could combat their deficiencies at WR is by giving a few additional snaps to Scott. He’s a dynamic player with the ball in his hands, so they could choose to line him up a bit at WR in this contest.
- Deontay Burnett & John Hightower — These players probably won’t see a bunch of interest today given the presence of Samuel, who makes all of the other punt plays pretty irrelevant. That said, Hightower played 86% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps last week, and Burnett’s four targets were the fourth-most on the team. Both players have a path to potentially return value today.
