The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
PG is pretty thin at the top today, with only Dennis Schroder owning a salary above $7,000 on FanDuel. He’s a solid bet to lead all PGs in usage today, with his season-long mark of 30.1 percent dwarfing every other player at the position on the slate. With that said, Schroder has an average matchup against the Knicks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +2.36, and the Hawks implied team total of 100.5 is the second-lowest mark on the slate. This is also the second leg of a road back-to-back for the Hawks, and Schroder has historically struggled in this situation:
Value
Dennis Smith Jr. will not play today against the Pelicans, which will open up a solid chunk of minutes at the PG position. Devin Harris saw 23.5 minutes in the Mavs last game without Smith and has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.67 against the New Orleans Pelicans. He’s a stronger play on DraftKings, where his $3,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
The Knicks PGs have one of the best matchups of the day at the position against the Atlanta Hawks, which puts both Jarrett Jack and Frank Ntilikina in play on such a small slate. Jack holds the slight edge in minutes at the moment and has been a slightly more productive player on a per-minute basis over the past month; he holds the clear edge of the two on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. The choice is not so clear on FanDuel, where Ntilikina costs $1,500 less than Jack and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past two games.
Jeff Teague has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.80 on FanDuel against the Dallas Mavericks, but that probably understates how difficult that matchup is. The Mavs have been much better recently on the defensive end of the court after a brutal start to the season and also play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Still, Teague is one of the most talented options on the slate, with his ceiling projection trailing only Schroder’s at the position. His 9 Pro Trends are tied for the position lead on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
No stud SG option stands out on today’s slate. Jrue Holiday was a nice source of value with Anthony Davis sidelined, but now that The Brow returned, Holiday is clearly overpriced across the DFS industry. Andrew Wiggins has failed to score more than 22 FanDuel points in each of his past three games and now gets to take on an extremely slow paced Mavs team. Things look a little better on DraftKings, where Jimmy Butler is listed as a SG and more players have dual PG/SG eligibility, but overall, it seems like a day where most will pay down at the position.
Value
JJ Barea features one of the biggest pricing discrepancies between the two sites today, owning a $5,200 salary on DraftKings and $6,400 salary on FanDuel. He’s a strong bet to lead the Mavericks in usage today and should see a few additional minutes with Smith out of the lineup. He played a season-high 29 minutes in his last game and has been an amazing source of value in general recently, with an average Plus/Minus of +8.24 on DraftKings over his past 10 games.
Fast Break
JJ Redick typically doesn’t offer much in the way of peripheral statistics, but that’s not a huge problem when you can shoot like him. Robert Covington is doubtful for today’s game, and no one on the team has seen a bigger increase in usage than Redick with Covington off the floor:
Redick played more 36 minutes in his last game against the Cleveland Cavaliers and should see at least that many today, given the 76ers injuries.
Kent Bazemore is a tough guy to figure for DFS purposes. He exploded for 45.7 FanDuel points in his last game against the Magic, yet actually saw less minutes than he did in three of his previous four games. There’s really no telling what you’re going to get from Bazemore on a night-to-night basis, but he does have one of the higher ceilings at the position.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has seemingly figured it out with the Minnesota Timberwolves, posting a Consistency Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel over his past 15 games. It doesn’t hurt that Tom Thibodeau is routinely playing him for 40+ minutes, and his usage rate of 24.8 percent over that time frame is significantly higher than the average from his first nine games (19.6 percent). He’s going to be tough to pass up on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
DeAndre Bembry has been a solid source of value recently, exceeding salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six straight games. He likely wont play more than 24-26 minutes, but he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his current $3,700 salary.
Fast Break
In addition to the Mavs guards, the injury to DSJ should create some additional opportunities for the wing players as well. Wesley Matthews was the biggest beneficiary on Friday, playing nearly 38 minutes and posting a season-high usage rate of 23.4 percent. He will likely draw the individual defense of Wiggins, who graded out as one of the worst wing defenders in the league last season according to Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). Harrison Barnes should also benefit from the injury to DSJ: He’s seen a usage increase of 1.4 percent with him off the court this season. Barnes has been as solid as they come recently, as well, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.16 on DraftKings over his past 10 games.
Courtney Lee has been another really reliable option recently:
He should continue to benefit from the absence of Tim Hardaway Jr, seeing a usage bump of 1.6 percent with THJ off the court this season.
Power Forward
Studs
Now we’re getting to the good stuff. PF is one of the most talent-rich positions on today’s slate, headlined by Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis, and Ben Simmons. Davis just returned from an injury last game and was rumored to only be available for about 25 minutes, yet he ended up playing 30.5 against the Sacramento Kings. He took a clear backseat to DeMarcus Cousins and scored just 27.5 DraftKings points, but it’s encouraging to see him on the court nonetheless. Davis’ price has fallen all the way to $10,300 on DraftKings, and if he’s not going to be on a minutes restriction, he’s a really intriguing buy-low candidate. The Pelicans lead the slate with an implied team total of 113.75 points, and Davis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20 against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Porzingis is another player looking to bounce back from an injury, and he has an excellent matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have the second-worst team rebounding rate this season, which has contributed to big men finding lots of success against them. Porzingis also figures to get a bump in value with Hardaway Jr sidelined: He’s averaged a usage rate of 35.5 percent with him off the court this season:
He’s extremely appealing on DraftKings, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Simmons has PF eligibility on FanDuel and might be the safest option of the bunch: He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 83 percent this season and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.39 against the Pelicans. He’s a bit limited as a scorer at this point in his career, but he makes up for it by being a massive contributor in the peripheral categories.
Value
Here’s what Taj Gibson has done over his past 10 games on FanDuel:
He should benefit from his matchup with the Mavericks, who have been the fourth-worst rebounding team in the league this season. Gibson is playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment, and the injury to Nemanja Bjelica will likely ensure that stays the same today. He has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Dario Saric seems way underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.74 over his past 10 games and could see additional minutes and offensive responsibility, given the injury to Covington.
Dwight Powell is coming off a season-high 30 minutes in his last game against the Bucks, and he’s likely underpriced if he’s going to see that much playing time. He’s averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings over the past month and makes for a really intriguing option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) against the Timberwolves.
Center
Studs
Center is another strong position on today’s slate, with DFS players having to choose between DeMarcus Cousins, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns at the top. All three players are significantly better values on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent.
Cousins has been the best player of the group this season and leads all players on today’s slate in median, ceiling, and floor projections. That said, paying up for him might not be as popular as expected at his current salary, which has become inflated thanks to a string of games where he dominated without Davis. He also has a difficult individual matchup against Embiid, who ranks seventh among centers in DRPM this season.
Embiid has been a bit of a disappointment recently when not playing the Lakers, but he remains the preeminent big man in terms of per-minute production: His average of 1.55 fantasy points per minute ranks first among all players on today’s slate. His production isn’t exactly surprising given his sky-high usage (32.5 percent) and defensive contributions (3.03 steals + blocks per game). His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most among centers on DraftKings.
Towns has become a bit of an afterthought this season thanks to the additions that Minnesota made in the offseason. His usage rate has dropped by 4.5 percent this year after a dominant sophomore season, which makes you wonder exactly what Thibodeau is thinking. He should have his way with the Dallas centers, but there’s no guarantee he’ll see the ball enough to do so.
Value
Given that there’s only six teams on the slate and three have centers that were just mentioned in the section above, pickings are slim in the value department. If you have to find a punt play, one option that might have some appeal is Kyle O’Quinn. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.02 against the Atlanta Hawks, although he can only be expected to do so much in his projected 15.1 minutes of playing time.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter has the same cake matchup as O’Quinn, but has struggled a bit since the Porzingis return. Still, he’s capable of putting up huge performances in a short time frame given his ability to gobble up points in the paint and rebounds. He’s very appealing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
