Editor: In our email thread of writers, we had the idea this week of having debates in article form. It’s very easy, as a writer or DFS player, to become biased about a player early in the week and then never truly analyze them – be it positively or negatively. We figured that debating a player’s merit – again, both positively and negatively – would be a great way to shatter this problem.
Bill and Jon (JayCabay12) volunteered for this boxing match of sorts. The format will be as follows:
Jon: Introduce QB
Bill: Rebuttal QB, Introduce RB
Jon: Rebuttal RB, Introduce WR
Bill: Rebuttal WR, Introduce TE
Jon: Rebuttal TE, Introduce D/ST
Bill: Rebuttal D/ST
Jon may very well introduce a QB that Bill loves this week. And that’s the whole goal of this exercise – doing so will force Bill to look at all aspects of that QB and truly form a well-rounded opinion on the play. Or perhaps find a different QB to argue for that he wasn’t initially on because of the first one. It’s something that we hope our users will do in the future, as we really do believe it’s a useful process, but for now, we’ll do the heavy hitting for you.
Is this the best battle since Ali – Frazier? We’ll let you decide that. Ding, ding.
Jon: QB Introduction
Cam Newton
Before getting into my reasoning for Cam, I want to point out the first thing I noticed when looking at this week of NFL. The Green Bay-Arizona game has a total of 50, which is the highest on the slate. For several reasons, I expect a lot of people to target this game.
In contrast, the total on the Carolina game is the lowest of the three totals available early in the week. Cam Newton comes into this week priced as the highest quarterback on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He also draws the Seattle Seahawks as his opponent. I think the public perceives Seattle’s defense to be a bit better than it is relative to fantasy production. These things could lead to a potential ownership discount on Cam, relative to the slate.
Last season, opposing QBs had a Plus/Minus of -2.91 when facing Seattle, as opposed to this season with a mark of +0.57. This is not a huge number, but it does show that this defense has been a bit friendlier to the QB position than it has in the past.
Also, Cam Newton has met or exceeded his salary based expectation in 15 of 16 games this season. He has the highest Plus/Minus of any quarterback in the league that that has a sample size higher than one game.
I don’t want to downplay the Seattle defense, but this has been a year of matchup independence for Cam. The last time these two teams saw each other was in Seattle for a Week 6 matchup in the 2014-2015 season. This was a game where Cam threw the ball 36 times and had seven rushing attempts. I am hoping I can get similar usage out of him for this week’s matchup in Carolina. Rostering naked Cam and stacking a separate game might be a good strategy to take into lineup construction on this short slate.
Bill: QB Rebuttal, RB Introduction
Carson Palmer
I’m certainly not going to be one to shoot down Cam Newton, but let me present the GPP case for Carson Palmer this weekend. As you said, the over/under is currently the highest of the four games on tap and many will likely be targeting the game as a result. At first glance, that does seem like a reason to fade Palmer in GPPs.
Here’s how I expect the average DFS player’s thinking to go this week: “David Johnson is on the Cardinals. David Johnson is really good and he is the CLEAR top option at running back. His team is a heavy home favorite and I know that is great for a running back’s outlook. David Johnson, David Johnson.”
I think enough people are also aware that when you stack a running back with a quarterback, it generally results in a negative correlation. There are enough options at quarterback this week that I think it’s going to be a no-brainer for people to pair Brady, Cam, Wilson, Rodgers, or Ben with David Johnson and move on.
Here’s something else: Carson Palmer’s game log looks terrible right now. You and I know that Carson didn’t play the full game against Seattle on 1/3 because Arizona had basically nothing to play for, but his eight-point game looks ugly. The game before that, Palmer scored only 17.6 FanDuel points against the Packers and that looks ugly too. Will people remember that game was a 30-point blowout which the Cardinals won easily? No one should be scared off by Palmer’s last two games, but I think some will. That reason, coupled with David Johnson’s anticipated ownership, leaves Palmer squarely in play as a GPP option for me.
Charcandrick West
I just spent a good three paragraphs stating my case for David Johnson being the highest-owned option at RB, and probably on the entire slate, so I’m going to pivot to Charcandrick West for my GPP recommendation. He doesn’t have an especially great matchup against the Patriots, who have allowed a -0.7 Opponent Plus/Minus to running backs on the year, but take a look at the other options. Does anyone have a great matchup at RB this week?
West only had eight carries to Spencer Ware’s 16 last week and that looks scary. However, West only had two carries after halftime in a game that the Texans just had no chance of winning. Spencer Ware had four carries in the first half and then dominated garbage time production. If anything, this seems like a good thing for West’s outlook, given this week’s matchup, which figures to be a tight game.
The other thing is this – if you’re the Chiefs, how are you going to try to win this football game? Gronk is healthy, Edelman is back, and the Patriots are coming off a bye at home. You’re either going to be playing with a #1 WR who is extremely hobbled or out altogether (Maclin) and your offense is NOT designed for a shootout. They’re going to try their best to control time of possession by pounding the running game and that means we’re going to probably see quite a bit of the CharcNado.
So let’s take David Johnson off the board because he’s not going to be the reason anybody wins a GPP this weekend. If he goes off and you don’t have him, he could be the reason you lose, sure. But let’s make things interesting – who ya got from “the others” at RB?
Jon: RB Rebuttal, WR Introduction
We haven’t set many rules for this, so I am putting David Johnson back on the board. Now that he is back, I am taking David Johnson. Boom, I win.
Jokes aside, I agree with the take on Johnson. He won’t win you a GPP for you this weekend, but even if we roster him there is still another RB slot to fill. The question this week is the aforementioned “others.” I think this position is one to monitor as we get closer to game day.
Also, I agree with your take on the Chiefs’ game plan towards the Patriots, which is the reason I would be a bit wary about going with Charcandrick West. One of the things the Patriots do so well is taking out the opposing team’s number-one option. If the Chiefs lack of passing options leads them to a run-heavy approach, I think the Patriots will make it a point to force Jason Avant, Chris Conley, and Albert Wilson to beat them. There is also questions surrounding how much of the red zone work will go to Spencer Ware. The uncertainty surrounding red zone work coupled with my questions around how inefficient I can see West being with the touches he does receive puts me in a position to look elsewhere.
That other direction is one that needs to be closely monitored. DeAngelo Williams consulted Dr. Robert Anderson, a foot specialist in Charlotte, on Monday. His status for this week is very questionable. The other layer of this is whether or not Ben Roethlisberger gets the start. Right now, I am expecting Big Ben to play and DeAngelo to be out or limited at best. This brings Fitzgerald Toussaint into play, who I think has a safer workload in Deangelo Williams’ absence than Charcandrick West does in Maclin’s. Toussaint saw 10 more touches than Jordan Todman, who had a shown some ball security issues by fumbling one of his 11 touches in the matchup against Cincinnati. Also, Toussaint was on the field for 35 more snaps than Todman. He also showed some pass-catching ability by bringing in four of eight passes for 60 yards, giving him some game-flow independence.
Markus Wheaton
This same game leads to me one of my early favorites at WR this week. Antonio Brown is in the concussion protocol. I have no doubt that if it were up to him that he would play. Unfortunately for the Steelers, it is not up to him. Latest reports have said that his odds of playing in the game are not looking good. Brown has been responsible for an average of 12.05 targets, 114.88 yards, and 0.58 touchdowns per game this season. He was also the recipient of 10 of the 23 touchdowns thrown to WRs.
With the majority shareholder of the WR workload looking like he might miss this game, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton get a big bump in my eyes. I like Wheaton as he comes in with a discount in salary and what is likely to be a discount in ownership compared to Bryant. There is no denying the Broncos defense, but Markus did manage a stat line of 6-62-1 on 11 targets in a Week 15 matchup with Denver. If Antonio is ruled out, I hope the news does not come out until as close to the game as possible. The later he is scratched, the more likely we are to see depressed ownership on Wheaton.
You’re up, Bill. Let’s see what ya got.
Bill: WR Rebuttal, TE Introduction
I think Wheaton will probably be a popular play if Brown is indeed out, as he is expected to be. He’s pretty risky and I’m not sure that I will be too heavily invested in him myself.
First let’s acknowledge that he did have his second-biggest game of the season against Denver on 12/20 (62 yards, 1 TD). A few things about that though – first, the game script in this contest more-or-less set up perfectly for the Steelers passing game. They found themselves in a 27-13 hole at halftime, which lead to Ben dialing up the pass 55 times. Those 55 pass attempts, by the way, tied his season high. He passed for 380 passing yards, which was his second-highest total of 2015. Even with this favorable script, if Wheaton doesn’t get into the end zone, you are looking at his 62 yards and it’s just another “meh” performance.
You also have to consider that the Steelers’ offense was more-or-less healthy in this game. Le’Veon Bell was already out for the season, but Ben, DeAngelo, and Brown were all healthy and active. Fast forward to this weekend where it looks like Williams and Brown will be out, while Ben fights off an injury that does not sound good at all – torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder.
You might think that playing without Williams and Brown would benefit Wheaton since he will have a larger role in the offense. Unfortunately, Markus has a history of not coming through when presented with similar opportunities. I think if the Broncos’ elite defensive backs do not have to worry about the threat of Antonio Brown, it’s more a negative than positive development for Wheaton.
Emmanuel Sanders
I’m looking at Emmanuel Sanders here. Even during Peyton’s shaky start to 2015, Sanders still eclipsed 20 points on Draftkings in 50% of the games Manning finished. Now, Peyton has thrown exactly nine pass attempts in the past two months and you would have to think he’s feeling pretty good leading up to this weekend’s matchup against Pittsburgh.
Speaking of Pittsburgh, they allowed the third-most passing yards during the regular season and have been an excellent matchup for opposing WRs all year. Pro Football Focus projects Sanders will do most of his work against Antwon Blake, one of the worst-rated cornerbacks who will be playing this weekend. If you’re buying into a resurgent Denver offense, give Sanders a long look.
Rob Gronkowski
Now, let’s look at tight end. This is the first time we’ve done an article in this format and I’m already bending the rules a bit. Instead of giving you my favorite GPP play, I want your opinion on Gronk. Whenever Jordan Reed isn’t an option, Gronk is an auto-play, right? Well, there is a problem with that this week.
Usually, we have about 20 more teams in action to pick players from in DFS. That makes uncovering value relatively easy and if you want to plug in an elite option like Gronk at tight end, it’s usually doable. This week, with fewer options, there just isn’t that much value out there.
Bales recently posted on RotoGrinders about the idea of “chalk roster construction.” Even if we’re not all on the same exact players, maybe we are constructing our teams in the same way because there is value at some positions and elite options at others (example: Thomas Rawls, David Johnson, and Tim Hightower are all great values at RB one week).
How do you expect people will create rosters this week and will the “chalk roster construction,” if there is one, preclude people from paying up for Gronk? Well, I looked into it a bit. I expect the majority of teams will pay up for Cam, Palmer, or Tom Brady at QB and also pay up for David Johnson at RB. You can go cheap at RB2, but at WR, there are a bunch of mid-range guys like Demaryius Thomas, Martavis Bryant, Julian Edelman, and Larry Fitzgerald that I expect people will be on. Is there enough value out there for Gronk to be chalk or do you see him going a bit under-owned this week?
Jon: TE Rebuttal, D/ST Introduction
Good question. Fading Gronk has been a profitable move all season long, but that has been in weeks with a lot of TE value. I am having a tough time nailing down Gronk’s ownership this week. Also, I think chalk is a very relative term when dealing with such a short slate. There are only three TE options that produce much confidence. If we assume that the other TEs account for 15% of ownership and the remaining three split evenly than we would get Gronk, Greg Olsen, and Travis Kelce at 28.3% each. I think Gronk and Olsen come in higher than that and wouldn’t be surprised if they ate 60-70% of the TE ownership themselves, but I am not going to allow that to scare me off of either one.
I toyed around with some lineups and started with the highest-priced QB (Cam Newton), the highest-priced RB without a questionable tag (David Johnson), and the highest-priced TE (Gronk). I was still able to make some lineups that I was happy with. I think most people will be able to do so as well. As this week has unfolded we have seen some more value open up with it looking less likely that Antonio Brown will play and Davante Adams being ruled out for Green Bay. Fantasy Labs NFL updates mentions that Jared Abbrederis will fill in at the WR3 spot for a team (Packers) that runs three-wide sets more than 90% of the time.
With all of that being said, my selection for TE is going to be Gronk AND Olsen, together. Is that even allowed? We have completely disregarded the rules that never existed and I’m not going to stop now. It is no secret that the Seattle defense has been susceptible to damage by the TE position in the past, which sets up well for Olsen. Taking an elite talent (Gronk) in what looks to be a poor matchup is something I love to target. This is really a bit of the perfect storm for me as I also love to go with a TE in the flex spot. This is a great way to gain some exposure to these two elite players. Ownership will be high on them individually, but the combination won’t be nearly as highly owned which leaves us some room to move more freely in the rest of our lineup construction without having to focus many other spots on being contrarian.
Steelers D/ST
Moving on to D/ST. I have to be honest here. This is a position I have not come to a definitive conclusion on. I like the Panthers as an option but I think I want to pose a take towards the Steelers D/ST here. I get it – the Steelers pass defense has been atrocious this season. They have allowed opposing starting quarterbacks to outperform their salary-based expectation by +4.67 points. Also, opposing wide receivers have a Plus/Minus of +2.55.
I understand all of that. I will also admit I don’t feel great about this selection, but I have two words for any rebuttal that you have ready for me – Peyton Manning. A wise man recently said “Now, Peyton has thrown exactly nine pass attempts in the past two months…” (That man is Bill and he said it roughly 10 paragraphs ago). Here’s the thing: that two-month stretch of Peyton’s was probably his most efficient stretch of the season. He seemed to find it difficult to throw the ball to the other team from the sidelines.
Prior to that, Peyton had a nine-game stretch where he threw at least one interception in each game and finished with 17 interceptions and only nine touchdowns. I have not bought back into Peyton Manning. Another reason I’ve decided to go with them in this article is because I want your help here. Bill, am I crazy? I still like Emanuel Sanders. What if I told you I would consider playing both Sanders and the Steelers D/ST? I think this is at least a viable option to consider on a short slate. I took a look at the games Sanders played with Peyton at QB and how those defenses did in relation to fantasy points.
It is important to mention that these are DraftKings points. The full PPR format, as well as the 100-yard bonus, allows for a receiver to have a decent fantasy game while not having as large of a negative impact on the opposing defense. I am much less likely to consider this on a site like FanDuel where fantasy production is more closely tied to touchdowns. I wish I could sit here and tell you that I am definitely going to roll this out this weekend, but I can’t. However, I do think this is a viable strategy and I am going to consider it. Bill, has this back and forth with you driven me to the brink of insanity?
Bill: D/ST Rebuttal
The back and forth hasn’t driven me to insanity; it was the repeated and blatant disregard towards the non-existent rules that got me.
I don’t think using Sanders and the Steelers D/ST together is that crazy this week. It’s hard to differentiate your lineup in a GPP with thousands upon thousands of entries and only four games to pick from. If you use Sanders and Pittsburgh together, you are doing so with the belief that Sanders can be effective in this game without getting into the end zone. In a full PPR format, I think that’s absolutely a possibility and I agree that it’s a play very few people will (knowingly) make.
The one thing I don’t like about your suggestion is that the ceiling comes down a bit. Sanders can have a good game without getting into the end zone, but can he post an elite GPP score without getting there? I’m not so sure. And obviously, if he does get into the end zone, you’re going to lose points from Pittsburgh D/ST.
Seahawks D/ST
Continuing the theme of using the D/ST position to create differentiation in a huge field, I’m going to pick Seattle here. Defensive and special teams touchdowns are always huge in NFL DFS. But with only eight teams on the slate, if only one D/ST scores a touchdown, it’s going to be very hard to make up ground if you didn’t roster that team.
We know there will be multiple players at QB, RB, WR, and TE who will be serviceable and multiple players will score touchdowns at those positions this weekend. Will multiple D/ST groups record a score this weekend? Maybe not. We’re down to the eight best teams in the league and although we can expect some offenses to score more points than others, I don’t think you can really pick on any of these teams and expect multiple turnovers from a D/ST group.
That’s why I like Seattle as the differentiation play. Some of the teams going this weekend have a defensive player as their primary returner (Cardinals) and some use a returner who is not a DFS option at their skill position (Packers). The teams with viable D/ST-WR stacks are Carolina, New England, and Seattle.
Tyler Lockett finished third in the league in both kickoff and punt-return yardage, with two return touchdowns as well. If you had to handicap a favorite player to score on special teams this weekend, it would probably have to be Lockett.
Now, offensively, Lockett will run some routes against Josh Norman, sure. But with Charles Tillman out, Lockett will also be running routes against seldom used Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan. He is a player who moves around the formation pretty frequently. Those who will be using Lockett this weekend (and I think there will be some, given his price point and lack of other options) will likely stack him with Russell Wilson. I would imagine far fewer teams will use Lockett with Seattle’s defense.
The downside of rostering a defense facing the Panthers in Carolina is obvious and, quite honestly, a negative result is more likely than a positive one. Still, defensive touchdowns are hard to predict every week, and especially hard to predict this week given the QBs in play. In large tournament fields, I think Lockett-Seattle D/ST has the highest ceiling of the groups in play, and on a four-game slate, I’ll probably be throwing a couple darts that way.
