This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
Sidney Crosby has it all: Two Stanley Cup rings and two Olympic Gold Medals as well as gold medals at the World Junior Championships, World Cup of Hockey, and Ice Hockey World Championships.
That’s even before we dive into personal accolades. Sid has won the Conn Smythe Trophy for NHL playoff MVP, the Hart Trophy for League MVP (twice), the Art Ross Trophy for leading the league in points (twice), and the Rocket Richard Trophy for leading the league in goals.
Basically, he’s from another planet. The scary thing is Crosby has elevated himself as a goal scorer in 2016-17 and is on pace to smash his career-best 51 goals in 2010, when he lead the league. Let’s take a look at what makes Crosby so special.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Crosby’s per-game averages for the last three years:
The biggest change in Crosby’s statistical profile in 2016-17 has been his massive increase in goal scoring. His 0.68 goals per game (GPG) this year is second only to his 0.78 mark in 2010-11, when he played only 41 games due to injury.
After two ‘down years’ (for him), his points per game (PPG) in 2016-17 is nearly back in line with his career average (an absurd 1.33 PPG). In regards to peripheral stats, Crosby is in the top 15 in shots per game, but he doesn’t offer a ton of value through blocking shots compared to some other centers. (Everyone has a weakness.)
From a fantasy perspective, it’s no surprise that his increase in goal scoring has correlated with a significant boost in Consistency (per our Trends tool):
Trends
Let’s dig into Trends to find out what makes Crosby so appealing from a DFS perspective.
Home/Away
Forwards tend to provide more NHL DFS value at home, so it makes sense that over the past two seasons Crosby has averaged 3.41 fewer FanDuel PPG on the road:
Even in his excellent start to the 2016-17 season, the home/away split remains:
However, with an average cost of $9,200 on FD, Crosby has still failed to return value at home this year eight times out of 19.
As you can see by his numbers, he has not been bad, but paying all the way up in a sport with a ton of variance like NHL can be risky no matter who the player is.
Opposing Teams
Of Crosby’s most frequent opponents, the Capitals and Sharks have given him the most trouble:
Crosby has the highest total Plus/Minus against the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers:
Division Games
Typically, playing in division games has little impact on a forward’s value:
Crosby on the other hand, performs far better in division games:
For whatever reason, Crosby seems to perform his best in games that mean more for his team. From a DFS perspective, targeting Sid in division games has provided significant production in the past.
Vegas
Unsurprisingly, Crosby performs well below average as an underdog:
Here’s how other (power play) forward do:
There are some NHL players who provide value as underdogs, but because of his high price Crosby isn’t one of them.
By Month
The good news is that Crosby has been a slow starter over the past two seasons, but he absolutely smashed after Christmas last year:
The samples aren’t large, but it’s possible that they’re representative. Maybe Crosby is a player who simply takes a while to get going during the season.
Salary Sweet Spot
Based on his 2016-17 average of 18.29 FD PPG, we would expect Crosby to cost $10,000.
Crosby’s highest price this season has been $9,400 in a game against the Ottawa Senators on 1/12/17. It’s possible that we will see Crosby priced appropriately very soon, but for now at least he remains underpriced on FD.
FanDuel
Crosby has been priced as low as $8,700 this season. When under $9,100, he has exhibited impressive Consistency:
Understandably, his price has risen while he’s been on this goal-scoring tear, but his Consistency has dropped in those games in which he has been at least $9,200:
DraftKings
Crosby has been $7,800 to $8,800 this season on DK. Over the past two months he has fallen below $8,200 just twice. On the season, he has been solid when priced above $8,200:
On the rare occasion he has been priced no higher than $8,200, he’s absolutely smashed:
The most recent time he matched this trend, Crosby had a goal and two assists en route to 9 DK points.
Stacking the Penguins
Here’s the average production among Penguin players during Crosby’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past three seasons:
FanDuel
DraftKings
It makes sense to see goaltenders Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury near the top of these lists. Both FD and DK offer large bonuses to goaltenders for wins, and when Crosby goes off the Penguins tens to win.
Also, all of these players see significant power play minutes. While stacking the Penguins as a whole is relatively difficult on both sites due to pricing, stacking him with a cheaper guy like Conor Sheary has been successful in the past.
Sid’s Correlations tab (in our Player Models) more or less reflects the data we see above:
It’s not easy to stack with Crosby because of his price, but when he does well some of his teammates also tend to benefit.
Conclusion
Besides his high price and reduced production on the road and as an underdog, Crosby doesn’t have many negative attributes as a player. In fact, even at his current elevated price he is probably still undervalued relative to his production. There may come a time where his salary catches up to him, but for now Crosby is a fine candidate to pay up for at forward.
