This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NHL’s brightest stars.
Patrice Bergeron is one of the best forwards in the league. The possession numbers Bergeron posts every season while consistently being matched against opposing teams’ top lines go underappreciated. Unfortunately for Bergeron, possession of the puck isn’t a fantasy scoring category and points against top lines don’t count for more than points against lesser lines.
Performance By Season
Here are Bergeron’s per-game numbers over the last four seasons:
| Season | GP | G | G/G | A | A/G | S | S/G | BLK | BLK/G |
| 2013-14 | 80 | 30 | 0.38 | 32 | 0.40 | 243 | 3.04 | 57 | 0.71 |
| 2014-15 | 81 | 23 | 0.28 | 32 | 0.40 | 234 | 2.89 | 60 | 0.74 |
| 2015-16 | 80 | 32 | 0.40 | 36 | 0.45 | 282 | 3.53 | 56 | 0.70 |
| 2016-17 | 53 | 14 | 0.26 | 19 | 0.36 | 198 | 3.74 | 32 | 0.60 |
Outside of shots, all of Bergeron’s fantasy relevant numbers this season are lower than they have been the previous three seasons. The Bruins have been one of the most unfortunate teams in the NHL this season. Boston has the best possession metrics in the league but is dead last in the NHL in shooting percentage, which is a statistic that we know can be extremely random over shorter periods of time. Bergeron has been no exception.
Fantasy Output
DraftKings has noticed Bergeron’s down year and has dropped his price. During the 2015-16 season Bergeron had an average expected point total of 3.66 compared to 3.50 this season. Here’s how his current season compares to last season from a fantasy perspective.
Trends
Let’s take advantage of the FantasyLabs Trends tool to see what makes Bergeron tick.
Home/Road
We can gain an edge with Bergeron through his home/road splits.
Whereas many players perform better at home, Bergeron has historically been just as solid on the road. He does have a higher Consistency Rating at home, but his home/road Plus/Minus values are identical and his average points scored are comparable. Plus on the road Bergeron makes a strong guaranteed prize pool option, with his increased volatility and decreased ownership levels.
Division Games
Patrice has a slightly higher Plus/Minus and more points scored against non-division opponents, but he has been more consistent in division:
Either way, there’s not much of an edge based on his division/non-division splits.
Vegas
When Vegas favors the Bruins, Bergeron is at his best:
However, there may be an edge to be gained in GPPs when Bergeron is a dog. His ownership plummets by 37.9 percent when he’s a dog even though his Consistency drops only 22.0 percent and his points scored only 10.0 percent. As a contrarian tournament option, Bergeron might have some utility.
Back-To-Back Games
Playing hard minutes against opposing top lines in back-to-back games has taken a toll on the Bruins forward:
In games in which Bergeron has played the day before he has hit value 26 percent of the time. Rest is important for all players, but it seems to be even more so for Bergeron.
And when he has had at least one full day in between games and his opponent has been on the second game of a back-to-back, Bergeron has been strong:
His +1.02 Plus/Minus and 60 percent Consistency are elite marks.
Monthly Performance
One impressive characteristic of Bergeron is his durability. Not only has he missed only eight games over the past six seasons, but he seems to get stronger as the season progresses.
Bergeron’s four best months are all after the new year. Now might be the time to play Patrice.
Conclusion
Bergeron is a solid option every night if he isn’t finishing up a back-to-back. When considering Bergeron for our lineups we should note when his opponent is in the second game of a back-to-back. Given his low shooting percentage, it’s possible that Bergeron could enjoy some position reversion, especially since he has historically finished his campaigns strong.
