This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
Toronto hockey fans have plenty to be excited about. The Maple Leafs have a roster full of young players who look like tomorrow’s superstars. Auston Matthews catches most of the attention, but Mitchell Marner and William Nylander, both under the legal drinking age in the U.S., are on pace for 60-point seasons.
Matthews: DFS Scouting Report
The Leafs are also likely to land in the playoffs this year after a three-year postseason drought. As long as I didn’t just jinx them, Toronto will make the playoffs for just the second time since the 2003-04 season. It’s a good thing there’s no such thing as a f*cking jinx. Don’t @ me, Leafs fans.
Somewhat underappreciated has been Nazem Kadri‘s season. Kadri is currently Toronto’s second-leading goal scorer and is often tasked with playing against the opposition’s top line. He’s a huge reason guys like Matthews, Marner, and Nylander see the easier matchups.
Overall Production
Kadri has an impressive FanDuel resume over the last two years (per our Trends tool):
Here’s how his fantasy relevant stats have looked over the past four seasons:
Kadri is actually taking fewer shots this year than last, but he’s finding the net at a career-high rate. Last season he had a shooting percentage of 6.5, which is less than half of his current 13.8. Kadri’s career average is 11.2 percent, so he’s likely followed up his unlucky 2015-16 campaign with a slightly fortunate season.
Strictly looking at his goal and assist totals, one might assume Kadri’s FanDuel numbers look much better this season compared to last, but that’s not true.
Although his raw production has increased this year, Kadri’s peripheral stats last year sustained his fantasy production and his price this year has adjusted with his uptick in scoring. So although he’s more productive this year than last, as a DFS play he’s comparable because of his similar Plus/Minus.
Trends
Let’s use the Trends tool to see where Kadri provides a DFS edge.
Home/Road
Playing at home has historically given power play (PP) centers a sizeable bump in production:
Kadri, however, has not followed the same trend:
Kadri has performed slightly better in Toronto, but where he skates hasn’t had much of an affect on his fantasy output.
Division/Non-Division Games
Historically, whether a PP center is playing inside his division or outside has little effect on his fantasy production:
Kadri’s numbers don’t follow this trend.
His division performance doesn’t look good, but it’s actually not as bad as it initially seems (based on information in the next section).
Common Opponents
Here’s how Kadri has performed against his six most common opponents (all of which are in his division):
Who knows why Kadri has struggled against the Sabres, but outside of subpar performances against Buffalo and Boston he has done well against the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs have one more game against Buffalo remaining on their schedule, but outside of that game (on April 3) Kadri doesn’t seem as if he has much to worry about from his division opponents — and it’s not as if the Leafs (a mortal lock to make the playoffs, right, Toronto fans?) are going to meet the Sabres in the postseason.
Vegas
What Vegas thinks of a matchup has been a pretty strong predictor of PP center performance in the past. Being the favorite is good for a player’s prospects:
While Kadri scores more fantasy points as a favorite, FanDuel has overadjusted his price to compensate for his status:
As an underdog, though, Kadri’s been undervalued. Pay close attention to the fluctuations in Kadri’s price based on his Vegas data. He could make for a strong contrarian option in guaranteed prize pools as a dog with potentially reduced ownership. (Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across tournaments of various stakes via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.)
Rest Factor
There aren’t many players in the NHL who benefit from playing the second half of back-to-back series on the road. I’m not willing to say it improves Kadri’s play, but at a minimum he’s done well in this position in the past:
Those are pretty impressive numbers with tired legs. Playing Kadri in road B2B slates could be a winning strategy in GPP, given his likely reduced ownership.
Takeaways
Kadri has been a strong option on FanDuel this year, and until he’s priced to his talent he’ll continue to be an option every slate (except on Apr. 3, when he hopes not to embarrass himself against the all-mighty Sabres). Kadri especially make for an intriguing option as an underdog and on the road for the back half of B2B. Keep these trends in mind throughout the regular season and the playoffs, which the Leafs are likely to make.
