This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
After a blazing hot 13-1-1 start to begin the year, the Montreal Canadiens have had an intriguing season. The Carey Price staredown caught the league’s attention, and the Canadiens (who have paced their division since October) fired Michel Therrien in February and replaced him with Claude Julien. Amid all the commotion, Max Pacioretty‘s impressive season has been overlooked.
Overall Production
Pacioretty has been a solid play since DraftKings started hosting daily fantasy NHL:
Taking a look at Pacioretty’s fantasy relevant numbers over the past four seasons, we find a few takeaways:
| Goals | Assists | Shots | Blocks | |
| 2016-2017 | 0.46 | 0.38 | 3.35 | 0.39 |
| 2015-2016 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 3.70 | 0.45 |
| 2014-2015 | 0.46 | 0.38 | 3.78 | 0.48 |
| 2013-2014 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 3.70 | 0.45 |
Pacioretty’s peripheral stats are currently lower than they have been in any of the three previous seasons. Although it hasn’t hurt his point totals, it is alarming that he’s been shooting and blocking fewer pucks. On the bright side, since Julien took over in Montreal 13 games ago Patch has taken 4.23 shots per game. He’s also been a great DFS play in that time:
Many fans, especially those in Montreal, were disappointed by Pacioretty’s 2015-16 campaign. While he wasn’t a terrible DFS play last season, he certainly wasn’t as good as he has been this year.
| Expected Points | Average Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Upside | |
| 2016-2017 | 3.67 | 4.10 | 0.43 | 43.10 | 13 |
| 2015-2016 | 3.90 | 4.02 | 0.12 | 48.80 | 9 |
Patches was more consistent last season, but his Plus/Minus has been significantly higher this season.
Trends
Let’s use the Trends tool to see where Pacioretty provides a DFS edge.
Home/Road
In general, playing at home is good for a player’s production. The same is true for Pacioretty:
| Expected Points | Average Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Upside | |
| Home | 3.82 | 4.14 | 0.32 | 51.3 | 7 |
| Road | 3.77 | 3.95 | 0.18 | 40.3 | 15 |
These splits paint a pretty clear picture. In cash games Pacioretty is a more desirable play at home. On the road, where he has more than double the upside (and likely lower ownership), he’s probably more of a tournament play.
Division/Non-Division Games
For wingers, whether a game is in or out of division doesn’t make much of a difference. For Pacioretty, however, there’s a difference:
| Expected Points | Average Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Upside | |
| Division | 3.76 | 4.17 | 0.41 | 48.1 | 11 |
| Non-Division | 3.81 | 4 | 0.19 | 45.1 | 11 |
Against Atlantic Division opponents, Patches is cheaper, more productive, and more consistent.
Vegas
In general, targeting wingers in games in which they are Vegas favorites has been a productive move, and that applies to Pacioretty:
| Expected Points | Average Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Upside | |
| Favorite | 3.82 | 4.14 | 0.33 | 45.3 | 9 |
| Dog | 3.77 | 3.95 | 0.18 | 47.1 | 14 |
From a Plus/Minus perspective, Patch has been more productive as a favorite — but he’s also been less consistent and explosive. Targeting Pacioretty in guaranteed prize pools when the Canadiens are dogs makes a ton of sense, especially Patch could benefit from lower ownership.
Common Opponents
Predictably, Pacioretty’s six most common opponents are all division foes. Here’s how he has performed against those teams over the past two seasons:
The Senators and Bruins have shut down Pacioretty recently. It makes sense that he has performed poorly against good teams. At the same time, he has shown very well against lesser teams like the Sabres, Maple Leafs, and Panthers. The Red Wings have managed to contain the Canadiens winger for the most part.
Takeaways
Pacioretty can offer us plenty of GPP value in situations in which he bucks the general trends for wingers, especially on the road and/or as an underdog. In cash games, he’s probably most optimal at home and/or as a favorite.
To discover more about Pacioretty and other players, use the FantasyLabs Tools to do your own research.
