This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
With perennial starter Marc-Andre Fleury battling concussion issues, Matt Murray took over as the Penguins No. 1 goaltender late last season and ultimately led the team to its second Stanley Cup Championship in eight years.
Let’s dig into his scouting report and analyze his DFS value.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Murray’s per-game averages for the last two years:
He currently sits at sixth in the league in save percentage (.925) — slightly better than Carey Price (DFS Scouting Report) at .922.
From a fantasy perspective, his Plus/Minus on DraftKings has increased this year, but he has actually seen a dip in his Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
That said, even though he’s provided value less frequently this season, Murray currently is tied for third in Consistency Rating at goaltender (30 or more games played):
Trends
Let’s explore his overall production to find the situations in which Murray has been reliable.
Vegas
Wins heavily impact goaltender scoring in NHL DFS, so it makes sense to target Vegas favorites. Here are the different moneyline ranges for starters:
Underdog goalies typically have reduced ownership — but far less value and lower Consistency Ratings.
Here are those same moneyline ranges for Murray:
He has sparkling numbers across the board and has been especially attractive as a slight favorite, providing significant value at almost half the ownership he’s had as a heavy favorite.
Home/Away
In terms of splits, goalies typically provide more value and higher Consistency at home, but they also have nearly double the ownership:
Much like his teammate Sidney Crosby (DFS Scouting Report), Murray has enjoyed a significant home ice advantage over the past two seasons:
In 2016-17, Murray has still been better on the road than at home . . .
. . . but with his ownership he may be better in cash games at home and guaranteed prize pools on the road.
Division Games
Division games typically have little impact on a starting goaltender’s value:
Murray, though, has a much higher Plus/Minus in non-division games:
With ownership comparable to that which he has received in divisional games, Murray has flashed higher Consistency and incredible Upside outside of division.
The problem is that this year Murray has been his best against the Pacific Division:
He hasn’t played many games against the Pacific, and three of the games were against the Canucks and Coyotes, who are #bad:
Given his high ownership in this situation, the edge Murray offers in non-divisional games may not be as great as it initially seems.
Peripheral Stats and Shots Against
On DraftKings and FanDuel, a goalie receives the same number of points for a win as any player receives for a goal. That’s substantial.
We talk a lot about the impact of peripheral stats on skaters, but at goalie they may be even more crucial. Saves are more common than shots and blocked shots and, unlike Martin Jones (DFS Scouting Report), Murray gets the opportunity to accrue a lot of saves:
In comparison to the NHL average — or a team like the Los Angeles Kings — Pittsburgh sees heavy shot against volume, which is bad for the Penguins but good for the DFS production of their goalie. These peripheral stats are likely the reason Murray is so valuable and consistent even when he’s a Vegas underdog. Even if the Penguins lose, Murray often has the chance to accumulate saves.
Salary Sweet Spot
DraftKings
Based on his 2016-17 average of 5.35 DraftKings points per game (PPG), his implied salary should be around $9,400. He has been priced at $8,600 and lower in each game this season.
Don’t overthink this.
FanDuel
Based on his 2016-17 average of 20.94 FanDuel PPG, Murray’s implied salary should be around $9,700. He has been priced at $9,400 and lower in each game this season.
Since FanDuel has more accurately priced Murray this year, let’s set a lower salary threshold:
Stacking the Penguins
Here’s the average production for Pittsburgh players during Murray’s 20 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons:
DraftKings
FanDuel
Stacking Murray with a superstar like Crosby or Evgeni Malkin is preferred — but also expensive.
The Correlations tab in our Player Models highlights the viability of paying down for a guy like Conor Sheary as well.
Conclusion
Murray is one of the most consistent producers in the league and an elite DFS goaltender. As such, he is rarely low-owned.
Over the past two seasons Murray has typically provided the most value as a slight favorite and/or at home. The Penguins also give up a ton of shots, which is great for Murray’s peripheral stats. He correlates well with his teammates, has been undervalued on DraftKings all season, and has provided a ton of value on FanDuel when priced at $9,100 or less.
