This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
Jonathan Toews may be one of the best two-way centers in the NHL and has been a massive contributor to the Chicago Blackhawks dynasty in recent years. In this scouting report we will examine if he has been, or is, as strong of a DFS play as his decorated career would suggest.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Toews’ per-game averages for the last three years:
We’re still a few months away from this being actionable, but it didn’t feel right to exclude Toews’ playoff per-game averages. He has led the Blackhawks to a Stanley Cup Championship three times in his nine NHL seasons:
From a fantasy perspective Toews has been incredibly consistent during the regular season. It’s no surprise that, even though his goals are down, his increase in assists and shots on goal this season has correlated with a spike in Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool):
For context, this is how the rest of the league’s Power Play (PP) centers have done over the past two seasons:
From a value perspective, Toews has been a solid play on DK in 2016-17.
Trends
Toews is one of the hottest players in the league right now. Let’s explore his production with the Trends tool.
Home/Away
In terms of splits, centers typically provide more value and Consistency at home.
Toews has enjoyed a home ice advantage, so it’s not a surprise that his ownership in Chicago is elevated. (By the way, be sure to check out our DFS Ownership Dashboard for NHL.)
In 2016-17, Toews has typically hit value both at home and on the road. His Consistency, though, differs drastically based on location:
Like most players, Toews is probably a stronger cash play at home with an increased Plus/Minus and Consistency but a better guaranteed prize pool option on the road at decreased ownership.
Opposing Teams
Of Toews’ most frequent opponents, the Blues and Jets have given him the most trouble:
The counts are relatively low, but the data could still be noteworthy. Of Toews’ most frequent opponents he has the strongest Plus/Minus against the Stars and Wild.
Overall, Toews has torn apart some poor teams like the Coyotes and Avalanche, but it’s intriguing still to see Toews dominate against the Wild — a rival team the Blackhawks have eliminated in the playoffs three of the past four seasons.
When looking at his worst average Plus/Minus values, we see the Maple Leafs and Capitals in his bottom five. Luckily for him, four of these teams are in the Eastern Conference so Toews doesn’t face them often.
The Predators, however, are a familiar central division foe against whom he has an 11 percent Consistency. Even at 0.9 percent ownership, he might not be worth roster rostering against Nashville.
Division Games
Division games typically have little impact on a PP center’s value:
Overall, Toews falls in line with the pack, but has been more consistent in non-division games:
Here is how he does against each division as well:
Vegas
There isn’t a huge edge on DK in targeting centers as favorites versus underdogs:
Again, Toews falls in line with the trend, but it should be noted the Blackhawks are not an underdog often:
Recent Peripheral Stats
It’s ideal to target recent shooting spikes and leverage blocked shots. Toews has seen a significant spike in shots on goal percentile over the past month. (He’s experienced a slight decline in blocked shots.)
Finding value with peripheral stats is huge, and Toews has provided a lot of value lately.
Salary Sweet Spot
DraftKings
Based on his 2016-17 average of 3.56 DK points per game (PPG), we would expect Toews to cost $6,700. His price has yet to surpass $6,500. Since Jan. 1, Toews production-based expected salary has been $6,000:
He has provided tons of value this season at $6,000 DK and under, and he’s actually been at or below that threshold in 77.27 percent of his games since Jan. 1:
Also, notice that his ownership is only 6.1 percent? Over the last couple of months, there’s been a huge edge in rostering Toews.
FanDuel
Based on his 2016-17 average of 12.40 FD PPG, we would expect Toews to cost $7,000. It’s clear FD has priced him pretty efficiently this season.
Toews has been at least $7,000 in every game since Jan. 1: #GolfClap, FD. However, he should probably still be priced closer to guys like Sidney Crosby and he’s not.
Stacking the Blackhawks
Here’s the average production for Chicago players during Toews 20 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons:
DraftKings
FanDuel
Stacking the Hawks is awesome. They implied for a lot of goals by Vegas most slates, and the Toews-Panik-Schmaltz line has been great since it was assembled. Panik and Schmaltz have provided a ton of value along with Toews, and they also afford the salary relief to pay up for a stud defenseman like Brent Burns.
Toews’ Correlations tab (in our Player Models) more or less reflects the data we see above: The top line for Chicago has been straight fire:
Home stretch of the NHL season, can’t hold anything back now.
Conclusion
Toews has been very consistent over his NHL career. From a fantasy perspective, he has performed much better at home over the past two seasons but has hit value on the road in 2016-17.
Many of his others splits fall in line with positional averages, but his recent peripheral stats are impressive. From a value perspective he has been severely underpriced on DK for quite some time, and there has been a huge edge in stacking him with his linemates on both sites as of late. We should probably ride this great situation out for the foreseeable future.
