This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
The Anaheim Ducks are surging — winning eight of their last ten games — and Jakob Silfverberg is distinguishing himself as an elite peripheral option. Let’s dig into his scouting report and analyze his DFS value going into playoffs.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Silfverberg’s per-game averages for the past three years:
Typically wingers do not block a ton of shots relative to centers and defensemen.
Silfverberg’s peripheral floor is enhanced by blocks (50th percentile overall), but his upside likely comes from his shooting volume (90th percentile).
Intriguingly, Silfverberg’s increase in goals this year hasn’t correlated to a huge bump in Plus/Minus on DraftKings over the past two seasons. Last year he had a +0.3 Plus/Minus, but this year it’s actually dipped to a +0.2 Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Trends
Even with his depressed Plus/Minus, Silfverberg has been on a recent tear. Let’s see if there are particular situations in which he has historically provided an edge.
Home/Away
In terms of splits, wingers typically provide more value and higher Consistency at home, and that’s with Silfverberg:
Nevertheless, he could still be useful on the road, given his diminished ownership and double-digit Upside Rating.
Division Games
Division games typically have little impact on power play (PP) wingers. Silfverberg, on the other hand, has been more productive in non-division games over the last two years at roughly half the ownership:
Like Johnny Gaudreau, Silfverberg has been particularly good versus the Central Division, against whom he boasts a +0.7 Plus/Minus with a 22 percent Upside Rating.
Gaudreau: DFS Scouting Report
Vegas
Historically, there’s a decent edge in targeting DraftKings wingers as Vegas favorites. Silfverberg abides by this trend with a +0.5 Plus/Minus as a favorite and -0.3 Plus/Minus as an underdog. Unsurprisingly, he experiences higher DraftKings ownership as a favorite — 7.3 percent versus 3.2 percent as an underdog.
With enhanced ownership, he might not be an ideal play in guaranteed prize pools as a favorite, but Silfverberg could be a strong option in cash games.
Recent Peripheral Stats
Let’s dig into Silfverberg’s recent peripheral stats:
At the start of March, Silfverberg’s shots met his year-long average, but his blocks were all the way down to the 29th percentile. He has now spiked all the way to the 99th percentile in shots and 63rd percentile in blocks over the past month, far surpassing his year-long average in both categories.
Silfverberg has been a peripheral stat monster over the past month, and his price has barely moved on DraftKings or FanDuel. As long as his stats stay up and his salary stays down, Silfverberg will be in consideration in each slate.
Bargain Rating
Bargain Rating is a proprietary metric of ours that shows how expensive a player is on one site versus another. Bargain Rating enables DFS players to exploit significant differences in site pricing.
Silfverberg has achieved a 70 percent or higher Bargain Rating on FanDuel in 82.6 percent of his games since February 1. He’s provided a real edge in those games, performing well above his average:
Stacking the Ducks
Here’s the average production for Anaheim players during Silfverberg’s 20 best fantasy performances over the past two seasons:
DraftKings
FanDuel
A stacking candidate, Silfverberg has provided the most value with his linemate Ryan Kesler and a defenseman on the power play like Cam Fowler.
Silfverberg’s correlations tab (in our Player Models) more or less reflects the data we see above outside of some small samples. Kesler has correlated very well overall (0.33) but Shea Theodore has also paired well (0.25) at a significant discount in salary.
Conclusion
Silfverberg has been on an elite peripheral tear over the past month, especially relative to other wingers who rarely block shots. He has been at his best at home, against non-divisional opponents, and as a Vegas favorite. With deceivingly average season-long stats, he may offer significant tournament upside at reduced ownership, especially on FanDuel, where’s he’s offered great value since February and has stacked well with his teammates over the past two seasons.
