This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
The best hair in the league calls Ottawa home. Erik Karlsson — a walking Pantene commercial — is one of the best offensive defensemen of this generation. Including this season, since Karlsson entered the league during the 2009-10 campaign there have been a total of eight seasons by defensemen who played 65 or more games and averaged more than 0.90 points per game (PPG). Erik Karlsson owns four of those seasons. Only two other players appear multiple times on that list, Brent Burns and Mike Green.
Burns: DFS Scouting Report
Overall Production
Predictably, Karlsson has been a great play since daily fantasy NHL kicked off on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
The Swede has been remarkably consistent over the last 148 games, establishing himself as an elite options in cash games.
After Karlsson’s amazing 2015-16, there has been talk of a ‘down year’ this season. Although Karlsson has been hot lately, some of that talk still persists. Taking a look at his per-game totals over the past four seasons may help us better understand the ‘down year’ narrative.
| Goals | Assists | Shots | Blocks | |
| 2016-2017 | 0.20 | 0.73 | 2.65 | 2.70 |
| 2015-2016 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 3.46 | 2.15 |
| 2014-2015 | 0.26 | 0.55 | 3.56 | 1.09 |
| 2013-2014 | 0.24 | 0.66 | 3.13 | 1.23 |
The numbers suggest Karlsson has focused on more of a defensive role this year compared to years past. He’s blocking more pucks than putting shots on net for the first time in his career. Luckily, his shooting percentage is slightly above his career average so his goal totals haven’t suffered much, but his peripheral stats as a whole are less desirable than they were last year.
How have Karlsson’s peripheral stats affected his fantasy numbers this season compared to last?
| Expected Points | Average Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Upside | |
| 2016-2017 | 12.98 | 16.96 | 3.98 | 59.1 | 18 |
| 2015-2016 | 14.51 | 17.19 | 2.69 | 56.1 | 12 |
On a raw basis, Karlsson has been almost as impressive this year, and FD has significantly overcompensated in adjusting his salary. As a result, even though the Senator is scoring slightly fewer fantasy PPG this year, his Plus/Minus is over a point higher. The over-adjustment in price has also noticeably boosted Karlsson’s Consistency and Upside Ratings. As Karlsson’s FD salary has been between $7,000 and $7,300 for most of the year, he’ll probably continue to be a solid play until FD prices him closer to $8,000.
Trends
Let’s see where Karlsson has an edge.
Home/Road
For the most part, playing at home enhances the DFS value of players. Karlsson is no exception.
| Expected Points | Average Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Upside | |
| Home | 13.79 | 17.52 | 3.73 | 59.2 | 17 |
| Road | 13.86 | 16.62 | 2.78 | 55.6 | 12 |
Karlsson is a strong play at home in all formats, although he isn’t a bad option on the road either. Historically, FD hasn’t adjusted his price for the advantage he sees on home ice.
Division/Non-Division Games
For defensemen, whether a game is inside or outside of division doesn’t change much in terms of fantasy production. That’s true for Karlsson.
| Expected Points | Average Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Upside | |
| Non-Division | 13.82 | 17.13 | 3.31 | 57.3 | 13 |
| Division | 13.83 | 17.01 | 3.17 | 57.7 | 17 |
Karlsson produces similarly against division and non-division foes, although he provides slightly more upside in division games. Targeting Karlsson in guaranteed prize pools against division opponents could provide an edge.
Vegas
Defensemen on FD perform slightly better in games in which their teams are Vegas favorites, but the gap isn’t huge.
| Expected Points | Average Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Upside | |
| Favroite | 13.62 | 18.06 | 4.44 | 58 | 18 |
| Dog | 13.93 | 16.59 | 2.66 | 57.1 | 13 |
In comparison to the average defenseman, Karlsson’s advantage as a favorite is substantial. He’s cheaper and more productive when favored, offering a higher Plus/Minus, Consistency, and Upside.
Common Opponents
Karlsson’s five most common opponents are all division foes. Here’s how he has performed against these teams in the past:
Right away we see the Red Wings seem to have Karlsson figured out. Karlsson has never hit the Upside threshold against Detroit. Conversely, Karlsson has absolutely slaughtered the Maple Leafs during their eight meetings in our sample. A Plus/Minus of +10 is absurd. Unfortunately, the Senators aren’t scheduled to play Toronto for the remainder of the regular season, but on the off chance we see Ottawa and Toronto collide in the playoffs Karlsson could be set up for an amazing series.
Rest Factor
NHL players tend to perform better when they have at least a day to rest between games. Similarly, players have an edge when facing teams who played the day before. In our sample we have 18 games in which Karlsson has played against a team on the back-end of a back-to-back while his team had at least one day in between games.
Karlsson has really picked on his opponents in these games. Pay close attention to the rest situations of Karlsson’s opponents going forward, as the NHL has crammed a large number of games into the last month of the season. The Senators have two such games remaining: 3/14 against Tampa Bay and 3/21 against Boston. Karlsson could be a juicy option on those nights.
Takeaways
There are plenty of edges to be found with Karlsson, especially in tournaments. (Use our DFS Ownership Dashboard to monitor Karlsson’s ownership after lineups lock.) He’s a solid option in GPPs on most nights at home, as the favorite, and inside his own division. Karlsson’s great skating ability out of his own zone also works well against teams with tired legs. Pay attention to these trends when making roster decisions as the season concludes and the playoffs begin. Until FD adjusts Karlsson’s price he’ll be in consideration every slate.
