This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
Tough stretches happen in daily fantasy sports.
Derek Stepan recently snapped a 23-game goal-less drought, so he can probably relate. His consistency has been suspect at best this year, but is this a situation in which we can we leverage recency bias into value at lower ownership?
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Stepan’s per-game averages for the last four years:
From a fantasy perspective, Stepan’s goals are down from last year, but at least his peripheral stats have remained relatively consistent.
In an event-based sport like NHL, it’s no surprise that Stepan’s dramatic decrease in goals this year has correlated with a dip in Plus/Minus on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
For context, this is how the rest of the league’s power play (PP) centermen have done over the past two seasons:
In terms of value and Consistency, Stepan has been a below-average fantasy play this season.
Trends
Stepan has been inconsistent, but perhaps he offers some upside in guaranteed prize pools. Let’s see if we can get more clarity via the Trends tool.
Home/Away
In terms of splits, centers typically provide more value and Consistency at home.
In comparison, Stepan performs dramatically better at home:
However, in 2016-17 his home/road splits haven’t been as extreme, and his production in general has decreased.
Intriguingly, Stepan has still done better at home while the Rangers have performed much better as a team on the road this season.
Division Games
Division games typically have little impact on a PP centerman’s value:
Overall, Stepan falls in line with that trend:
However, when you dig deeper you will notice that he has provided a ton of value and consistency against the Central Division:
Vegas
There isn’t a massive edge on FD in targeting centermen as Vegas favorites versus underdogs:
However, Stepan has fared much better as a favorite for New York:
Surprisingly, his ownership is nearly double as an underdog as well. There’s no knowing if that ownership trend will hold moving forward, but it’s certainly notable.
Rest Factor
NHL players tend to perform better when they have at least a day to rest between games. Similarly, players have an edge when facing teams who played the day before.
In our sample we have 16 games in which Stepan has played against a team on the back-end of a back-to-back while his team had at least one day in between games.
This trend stands out for a player who has struggled this season and doesn’t typically exhibit this level of production.
By Month
Inconsistency isn’t always bad, especially when we can ride hot streaks from a player like Stepan. This season, he’s done very well in the months of December and March:
It’s very possible that Stepan’s salary-adjusted hot streak could continue throughout March, making him worth some shots in GPPs.
Recent Peripheral Stats
Let’s dig into Stepan’s recent peripheral stats to see if we can trust what has been going on so far in March.
What stands out are two smash-level games and two games that make you want to smash your computer.
However, his blocks are up this month and his shots have substantially spiked.
Let’s take a peek at his recent game logs:
That makes more sense: A 10-shot game is skewing his recent averages even though his log is littered with one-shot performances.
Bargain Rating
Stepan has been a below-average play on DraftKings this season in comparison to FanDuel:
Bargain Rating is a metric we use at FantasyLabs to search for meaningful differences in site pricing.
This season, when Stepan has achieved an 85 percent or higher Bargain Rating on FanDuel, he’s provided a real edge, performing well above his averages in those games.
Stacking the Rangers
Here’s the average production for New York players during Stepan’s 20 best fantasy performances over the past two seasons:
FanDuel
DraftKings
There has been value in stacking Stepan with his current linemates Mats Zuccarello and Chris Kreider as well as his goaltender.
Jones’ correlations tab (in our Player Models) more or less reflects the data we see above outside of some small samples up top.
Conclusion
Stepan’s lack of goals this year has impacted his fantasy value greatly. He has performed drastically better at home, but even in some of the most favorable matchups Stepan has struggled this season to meet value consistently.
That said, Stepan has historically smashed the Central Division, and he has also performed well above average as a favorite and (with a day’s rest) against teams on the second half of back-t0-back series.
From a salary perspective, Stepan has been far more productive on FD this season, providing strong value with a Bargain Rating of 85 percent or higher.
