This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
David Pastrnak is one of the best young players in the league. After wrapping up his teenage years with a promising 2015-16 campaign, Pastrnak has improved in his age-20 season. While spending a large portion of the year playing alongside Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand has helped his numbers, Pastrnak’s 32 goals and 36 assists are not entirely due to his linemates.
Bergeron: DFS Scouting Report
Marchand: DFS Scouting Report
Overall Production
Pastrnak has been one of the best plays in the league from a Plus/Minus standpoint since daily fantasy hockey started on FanDuel. In fact, of all players who have played 100 or more games over the last two years, only four currently have higher Plus/Minus values than Pastrnak (per our Trends tool):
Pastrnak has been incredibly consistent in his 125-game sample, and it’s not hard to see why:
Pastrnak’s peripheral stats have been strong this season. A player who is taking over three shots per game is always going to have a high floor. It also doesn’t hurt that a higher percentage of Pastrnak’s shots are finding the back of the net this year. At first glance it may seem as if his current season is an outlier from a per-game standpoint, but the increase in Pastrnak’s numbers can largely be tied to his uptick in ice time. After averaging about 14 minutes of time on ice per game in his first two seasons, Pastrnak is now averaging roughly 18 minutes. In 2016-17, Pastrnak has a FanDuel Plus/Minus of +4.0.
Trends
Let’s use the Trends tool to find out where Pastrnak provides a DFS edge.
Home/Road
Playing at home usually boosts a player’s DFS production, and that’s the case with Pastrnak:
Reaching or exceeding his expected point total 60 percent of the time at home, Pastrnak is a superior cash game play in Boston. As a guaranteed prize pool option, though, he might have prohibitive ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Division/Non-Division Games
Historically whether a winger is playing inside or outside his division has little effect on his DFS performance, but Pastrnak has performed slightly better against Atlantic Division opponents:
It is notable that Pastrnak has had the same Consistency Rating outside of divisional play at nearly half the ownership.
Common Opponents
Our sample of Pastrnak’s games includes seven teams he’s faced six or more times:
The Lightning and Hurricanes seem to have Pastrnak figured out. On the other end of the spectrum, the Blue Jackets and Maple Leafs have done little to slow him down. Averaging more than 16 points against a team is amazing. If the Bruins and Maple Leafs stay hot and the Senators continue to slide, there’s a chance the Boston could face Toronto in the first round of the playoffs, which could put Pastrnak in line for a huge series.
Vegas
Being the Vegas favorite is historically the desired option for all players. The same is true for Pastrnak:
However, Pastrnak’s edge as the favorite might be offset by his elevated ownership. He warrants GPP consideration as an underdog given his significant ownership discount.
Team Score Sweet Spot
Generally, when Vegas gives a team a high implied total it bodes well for player production. For Pastrnak, the implied total sweet spot is between 2.7 and 3.1 points:
As evidenced by the respectable sample size, this implied total range isn’t rare for Boston, and Pastrnak has crushed under these circumstances, with a 57.6 percent Consistency Rating and unbelievable 30 percent Upside Rating. Within the Player Models keep an eye on the Vegas implied totals for the Bruins as the season winds down and throughout the playoffs.
Takeaways
In most situations Pastrnak has been an above-average play on FanDuel. He should be in consideration every slate, especially at home and when the Bruins have implied totals between 2.7 and 3.1. He also makes for a strong contrarian GPP option as an underdog.
