This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
Carey Price may be one of the most polarizing players in the NHL. He is largely considered one of the best goaltenders in the world, but he has struggled mightily at times in 2016-17.
He has reemerged since the Canadiens’ bye week, but let’s dig into his scouting report and analyze his DFS value.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Price’s per-game averages for the last four years:
In 2014-15, Price posted a staggering .933 Save Percentage (Save %) — good enough for fifth all-time in that category for a single season. He was on pace to break that mark in 2015-16, but his season was cut short due to an MCL injury.
From a fantasy perspective Price has struggled this season. Given that his goals against average (GAA) has increased and his win percentage (Win %) and shutouts have decrased, it’s not a surprise to see that his year-over-year Plus/Minus has dipped (per our Trends tool):
For context, this is how the rest of the league’s starting goalies have done (on DraftKings) over the past two seasons:
Price has been a solid DFS play compared to other goaltenders — but compared to his former self he lacks the upside to justify paying up at the position.
Trends
Price has been one of the hottest goaltenders in the league lately, but let’s explore his overall production.
Home/Away
In terms of splits, goalies typically provide more value and Consistency at home, but they also have nearly double the DK ownership:
Over the past two seasons, Price has enjoyed a significant home ice advantage, so it’s not a surprise that his ownership in Montreal is elevated. (By the way, Pro users should be sure to check out our DFS Ownership Dashboard after lineups lock.)
Intriguingly, since Feb 18 (the end of the Canadiens’ bye week) Price has smashed value, especially on the road.
The sample is small, but it’s possible that Price’s struggles this season could be behind him.
Opposing Teams
Of Price’s most frequent opponents, the Bruins and Islanders have given him the most trouble, but typically he has still met value:
The counts are relatively low, but the data could still be noteworthy. Of Price’s most frequent opponents, the Maple Leafs and Rangers have been the most generous.
Here are the teams Price has struggled against the most — although the counts are too small to hold much weight:
Division Games
Division games typically have little impact on a starting goaltender’s value:
However, Price has provided more value and been more consistent in division games:
Vegas
Wins heavily impact goaltender scoring in NHL DFS, so it makes sense to target Vegas favorites. Let’s use the Trends tool to look at different moneyline ranges:
Price has provided a ton of value and consistency as a large favorite and also as a slight underdog. Playing him in that situation could be a sharp move in guaranteed prize pools.
Hot Since the Bye Week
We touched on it before, but Price in his six games since the bye week (and Michel Therrien’s firing), has gone 4-2 with a GAA of 1.5 and a save percentage of .944. It’s possible he could be returning to Vezina Trophy form.
Can we still take advantage of this hot streak?
Salary Sweet Spot
DraftKings
Based on his 2016-17 average of 4.81 DK points per game (PPG), we would expect Price to cost $7,600. He has been priced at $7,600 and lower in just 16.33 percent of his games this season.
Surprisingly, he has underperformed in these games, but the sample size is small, and it’s possible that he’s been priced down in situations in suboptimal situations or when he’s been playing poorly.
Also, it’s bizarre that Price has overperformed when priced at $7,700 and above.
What has his salary looked like since the bye?
Again, six games is a small sample, but we should seek to take advantage of hot streaks and pricing inefficiencies in NHL. Based on his 5.03 DK PPG since the bye, we would expect Price to cost around $9,000. He has been priced at 8,200 or less in every game since the bye and has actually dropped $200 over his past two contests.
FanDuel
Based on his 2016-17 average of 19.64 FD PPG, we would expect Price to cost around $10,000. He has been priced at $10,000 and above in 40.82 percent of his games this season.
As is the case with Jonathan Toews, FD salaried Price much more efficiently this season. Still, he’s probably still underpriced in regards to his recent production.
Based on his 22.8 FD PPG since the bye, we would expect Price to cost around $11,000. No goaltender has exceeded $10,700 over the past two seasons. Price has been priced at $9,300 or less in every game since the bye.
Smoke ’em if you got ’em.
Stacking the Canadiens
Here’s the average production for Montreal players during Price’s 20 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons:
DraftKings
FanDuel
Stacking Price with elite peripheral stat skaters like Max Pacioretty and Shea Weber is preferred, but it is also expensive.
However, the Correlations tab in our Player Models highlights the viability of some cheaper options like Andrew Shaw and Alex Galchenyuk.
Conclusion
Price is an elite talent who has struggled at times this season. He is at his best at home, in division games, and as a heavy favorite or slight underdog.
His struggles this year have likely driven down his price, but if he can stay hot he represents a ton of value in all formats, even if he’s hard to stack with elite options due to salary.
