This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NHL’s brightest stars.
Is Brent Burns trying to impersonate a caveman? — or are cavemen trying to impersonate Brent Burns? Probably the latter, as he has cemented himself as the most dominant defenseman in the NHL.
No defenseman has been close to Burns this season in FanDuel points per game:
Full disclosure: We may have to dig deep for any semblance of negativity in this scouting report.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Burns’ per-game averages for the last three years:
It’s tough to see any holes here: He could be the most versatile defenseman in the league. Not only is he averaging more than a point per game, but he’s also an elite accumulator of peripheral stats.
In 2016-17, Burns has seen a slight dip in shots on goal (SOG) and blocked shots (BLK) but his elevated goal and assists totals have more than made up for it from a Plus/Minus perspective. What really stands out is his ridiculous Consistency (per our Trends tool):
For context, this is how the rest of the league’s power play (PP) defensemen have done over the past two seasons:
Burnzie is on an elite tear, hitting his salary-based expectations about 1.5 times more than other PP defensemen this season.
Trends
Let’s dig deeper into Trends to find out if there are any situations in which it’s reasonable to fade Burns, perhaps for a cheaper offensive defenseman or one in a recently expanded role.
Home/Away
Based on some typical defenseman splits, they tend to provide more value and are more consistent at home:
Surprisingly, Burns has been better on the road than at home over the past two seasons:
In 2016-17, the home/away split is even more drastic:
There could be some noise here, but at the very least we shouldn’t be scared off of playing Burns on the road. If anything, it’s possible that we should roster him on the road in guaranteed prize pools when he might have lower ownership.
Back-to-Backs
It seems extraneous to compare Burns to the field, but it’s not surprising that typical PP defensemen see a significant dip in value on back-to-back games on the road:
Burns — insert LOL.gif here — actually has been at his best in those games:
In traditionally suboptimal spots, Burns has historically provided a lot of value.
Opposing Teams
Of Burns’ most frequent opponents, the Blues and Penguins have given him the most trouble:
His (lack of) Consistency against those two teams is especially scary when one considers that he’s one of the league’s most consistent players.
In a limited sample, Burns has been his best against the Maple Leafs and Senators.
Division Games
Typically, playing in division has little impact on a PP defenseman’s value:
Burns on the other hand, performs better in division games:
For whatever reason, Burns seems to perform his best in games that mean more for his team. From a DFS perspective, rostering Burnzie in division games has provided significant production in the past.
Here is how he does against each division as well:
Anytime we can find an area in which Burns struggles it is noteworthy. The Central Division has historically limited Burns’ production, although he still typically exceeds value.
Vegas
Like most defensemen, Burns performs above expectations in games in which he’s a favorite:
Although Burns still provide some value as a dog, he’s significantly more productive and consistent when favored.
By Month
Last year Burns faded down the stretch, so that could be a concern in 2017.
The samples aren’t large, but it’s possible that they’re representative. Burns’ numbers in May and June last season were poor relative to how he’s previously performed in those months.
Salary Sweet Spot
FanDuel
Based on his 2016-17 average of 18.94 FD PPG, it is hard to project where Burn’s salary should be: The highest expectation for FD points this season is 17.01, when Sidney Crosby (scouting report) was priced at $9,400.
Accordingly, Burns is still underpriced given his production. He has been priced at $8,200 or higher in 72.72 percent of his games this season:
When Burns is priced at $8,100 or less, giddy up:
DraftKings
As is the case on FD, Burns’ efficient salary on DK is hard to project given his 2016-17 average of 5.26 DK PPG: The highest expectation for DK points this season is 4.54, when Burns saw his highest price of the season ($8,600) on February 7th against the Buffalo Sabres.
He has been priced at $8,200 or higher 74.54 percent of the time this season:
Unsurprisingly, in the 25.45 percent of games he has been priced at $8,100 or less he has enjoyed a bump in value:
Burns’ price is more accurate on DK, but he’s likely still undervalued on both sites.
Stacking the Sharks
Here’s the average production for San Jose players during Burns’ 20 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons:
FanDuel
DraftKings
Burns’ Correlations tab (in our Player Models) more or less reflects the data we see above:
As we’ve seen in other NHL scouting reports, goaltenders tend to do well when studs play well. This dynamic probably shouldn’t surprise anyone. If a team controls the puck long enough to score an abundance of fantasy points, then the other team probably doesn’t have the puck long enough to score many goals against the goaltender.
In comparison to elite players like Crosby and Alex Ovechkin (scouting report), Burns has a number of teammates who are both reasonably priced and good stacking candidates. That’s just another reason to roster Burns in GPPs.
Conclusion
Burns is in consideration every slate given the way he is playing relative to his price.
There is a potential edge to be gained by playing him in traditionally suboptimal spots, such as on the road, in the second game of a road back-to-back, or in division.
Be wary of him possibly fading down the stretch, but for now, if you want to pay up at defenseman, he’s the No. 1 option.
