This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
In the offseason, Brad Marchand received a hefty contract extension for eight years, totaling $49 million. The Boston Bruins were scrutinized for this, as Marchand is 28 years old and had scored 30 goals and 60 points just once in his career. All of that doubt — for now — has been put to rest as Marchand has put up career-best offensive totals across the board. He’s not two-way player that teammate Patrice Bergeron is, but Marchand has been so good lately that he has entered into the discussion for the Hart Trophy, given to the league MVP.
Bergeron: Scouting Report
Career Numbers
Throughout his career, Marchand has been a great goal scorer. The 2012-13 season was shortened because of the lockout, but in his seven full-length campaigns he has put up 20 goals each year. Outside of a dip in production in 2013-2015, Marchand has steadily improved as a producer:
| Year | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-2011 | 77 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| 2011-2012 | 76 | 28 | 27 | 55 |
| 2012-2013 | 45 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| 2013-2014 | 82 | 25 | 28 | 53 |
| 2014-2015 | 77 | 24 | 18 | 42 |
| 2015-2016 | 77 | 37 | 23 | 60 |
| 2016-2017 | 75 | 37 | 43 | 80 |
There are seven games left in the season, and Marchand is on pace for his first 40-goal campaign. He has already blown away his career high in points by 20.
A Tale of Two Marchands
The start of the season for Marchand was solid. As 2016 turned to 2017, he was on pace for 21 goals and 65 points. That’s nothing special, but it was in line with his career numbers:
But in 2017 something changed: Marchand started to play on an entirely different level, scoring the most points per game in the league since January 1. Although Marchand and Nicklas Backstrom each have 49 points — in 36 and 39 games — Marchand has the most goals scored in the NHL in the same time frame.
When to Use Him
Vegas
While most players perform better as Vegas favorites, Marchand has actually performed better on FanDuel as an underdog:
You will notice that, while Marchand does have a superior Plus/Minus and raw point total as a dog, what really jumps out is his drastically reduced ownership, which Pro subscribers can review across guaranteed prize pools of various stakes via our DFS Ownership Dashboard. As a favorite, Marchand has received a staggering 16.2 percent ownership. That number drops 66 percent to an ownership level of just 5.5 percent as an underdog — and his Upside Rating is five percentage points higher. Marchand should be in GPP consideration whenever the Bruins are underdogs. He could make for a smart leverage play at reduced ownership.
Divisional vs. Non-Divisional Opponents
Unlike some other players such as Nazem Kadri, Johnny Gaudreau, and Derek Stepan, Marchand has been more successful (albeit only slightly) in divisional matchups:
However, it should be noted that, although he’s had more raw production and a high Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating inside of division, Marchand has significantly lower ownership and a higher Upside Rating outside of division. In fact, he experiences almost double the ownership in matchups within the division. Even though he’s (barely) been less productive against non-division opponents, Marchand is a GPP option in this scenario given his substantial ownership discount.
Kadri: DFS Scouting Report
Gaudreau: DFS Scouting Report
Stepan: DFS Scouting Report
Correlations
The following chart shows the teammates with whom Marchand has the highest correlation (minimum of 20 games):
When building tournament lineups (via our Lineup Builder in the Players Models), you can maximize your upside by stacking Marchand with his highly correlated linemates (who can be verified each slate with our Team Lines tool). In both cash games and tournaments, Marchand makes for a good stacking candidate with David Pastrnak, with whom he shares an elite correlation. He also correlates highly with defenseman Zdeno Chara.
Final Thoughts
Despite being 28 years old to start the season, Marchand is having a breakout year. Available at an ownership discount as an underdog and outside of division, Marchand stacks well with his linemates and warrants GPP consideration. As for the coming season, only time will tell if he lives up to his new contract as he advanced into his 30s.
