This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NHL’s brightest stars.
Alex Ovechkin is the definition of a pure’ goal scorer. Players like Ovi always seem to be in the right place at the right time. At times he’s nonexistent on the defensive end . . .
. . . but he makes up for it on offense.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Ovechkin’s per-game averages for the last three years:
The biggest change in Ovi’s statistical profile in 2016-17 has been his decrease in goal scoring. His 0.48 goals per game (GPG) this year is the second-worst mark of his career, but for most of his career he’s been very consistent, averaging an absurdly high 0.62 GPG.
Ovi’s career average Shots On Goal (SOG) per game is 4.97. His 3.84 per-game average this season is the lowest of Ovechkin’s career.
Like most goal scores, Ovi is a streaky player. He could heat up, but his dip in production this season should not be ignored given his pricing.
From a fantasy perspective, it’s no surprise that his decrease in goal scoring — as well as Peripheral Stats — has correlated with a significant decrease in Plus/Minus and Consistency on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Trends
Let’s dig into Trends to find out what’s gone wrong for Ovechkin this season from a DFS perspective.
Home/Away
Forwards typically provide more NHL DFS value at home. Ovechkin’s splits are relatively even over the past two seasons:
In 2016-17, the home/away split normalizes a bit:
However, with an average cost of $8,800 FD, Ovechkin has failed to hit value 44.7 percent of the time. His Consistency has remained far better at home this year, so that’s something.
Paying all the way up for goal scoring (variance) in NHL can be risky no matter how prolific a player is or has been. Is it possible that his price has taken too long to correct itself? More on that later, but it sounds reasonable.
Opposing Teams
Of Ovechkin’s most frequent opponents, the Flyers and Blue Jackets have given him the most trouble:
Ovechkin has the highest total Plus/Minus against the St. Louis Blues and New York Islanders:
Division Games
Typically, playing in division games has little impact on a (power play) forward’s value:
Ovechkin on the other hand is far more productive in non-division games even if he’s more inconsistent:
Unlike his nemesis, Sidney Crosby (DFS scouting report), Ovechkin seems to perform his best in games that mean less for his team.
Vegas
For a player yet to be in the Stanley Cup Finals, Ovechkin has played on some phenomenal regular-season teams. The Capitals have finished first or second eight times in Ovi’s eleven seasons.
In just 20 games over the past two seasons has he been an underdog (per our Vegas tool). Ovi has smashed value in those games:
In comparison, here’s how other (power play) forwards do:
There are some NHL players who provide value as underdogs. Ovechkin seems to be one of them.
Time On Ice
Ovechkin’s deepest playoff run came in 2011-12, when the Capitals ultimately lost a tight 2-1 Game Seven to the New York Rangers in the Conference Semifinal. Ovechkin’s 19.48 minutes per game that year marked the lowest Time on Ice (TOI) of his career.
The coaching staff that year reduced his TOI because they wanted to limit his defensive zone time and increase his energy levels at the offensive end, where he is clearly most useful. The coaching staff may have been onto something:
Although Ovechkin scores more raw points with more playing time, he’s far better on a salary-adjusted basis with less short-term playing time.
Salary Sweet Spot
FanDuel
Based on his 2016-17 average of 15.49 FD PPG, we would expect Ovi to cost $8,600. His price has been above $8,600 in 81.58 percent of games this season.
It’s possible that we will see Ovechkin’s price drop soon, but for now at least he remains overpriced on FD.
DraftKings
Based on his 2016-17 average of 4.42 DK PPG, we would expect Ovechkin to cost $8,300. Compared to FD, DK has done a better job pricing him this season in regards to value:
It seems pretty clear that they have. In the aggregate, Ovechkin seems to be overpriced above $8,300 and underpriced at and below it.
Stacking the Capitals
Here’s the average production for Washington players during Ovechkin’s 20 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons:
FanDuel
DraftKings
It makes sense to see goaltenders Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer near the top of these lists. Both FD and DK offer large bonuses to goaltenders for wins, and when Ovi goes off the Capitals tend to win.
Also, all of these players see significant power play minutes. While stacking Washington as a whole is relatively difficult due to pricing, stacking him with a near-minimum option like Zach Sill or Aaron Ness has been successful in the past.
Ovechkin’s Correlations tab (in our Player Models) more or less reflects the data we see above:
It’s not easy to stack with Ovechkin because of his price, but when he does well some of his teammates also tend to benefit.
Conclusion
Ovechkin is a volatile player who’s always an option in GPPs, but he’s overpriced on FD and is risky in cash games.
There are two situations in which he could be usable in cash games again:
- He goes on a goal-scoring tear or his peripheral stats revert to his career average.
- His salary drops considerably.
For now, Ovechkin is not a strong candidate to pay up for at forward.
