This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
And just like that Stephen Curry is back to being the Warriors’ undisputed alpha dog. Kevin Durant is expected to miss at least four weeks with an MCL sprain and could be shut down longer considering the Warriors have already clinched a playoff berth. Whether or not this means Curry will resume shooting 11-plus 3-pointers a game remains to be seen, but the loss of Durant and his 16.7 field-goal attempts per game will undoubtedly shake up the Warriors’ offensive distribution.
It’s unlikely that Curry’s usual minute workload will change too much, but Durant’s absence could lead to a revival for Curry’s DFS domination. Through 60 games this season, Curry has averaged 44.26 DraftKings points per game – his fewest since 2013.
Statistical Breakdown
Curry set career-highs in both points and rebounds during his dominant 2015 campaign. His play this season is closer to how he performed two years ago, though his current average of 6.3 assists per game is his lowest mark since 2011. Still, this is more of a result from Draymond Green‘s integration into the offense than anything Curry is doing wrong.
The arrival of Durant has resulted in Curry averaging nearly three fewer shots per game, though he continues to take plenty of shots from deep. Overall, his average of 9.8 3-point attempts per game is the highest mark in the league.
Trends
Home/Away
Curry’s ungodly shooting ability has remained lethal regardless of where he’s played during the past three seasons:
Per our Trends tool, we see that he’s actually performed better away from Oracle Arena since 2014. Still, Curry has been pretty great at home as well and has surpassed his implied point total over 52 percent of the time wherever he’s played.
Curry’s ability to thrive on the road hasn’t been as evident this season:
He’s balled out at home this season and has failed to replicate his magic on the road. Once again, Curry doesn’t perform poorly anywhere, but he’s clearly stepped it up at home this season. Targeting Curry at home has led to slightly lower ownership, but he’s proved that he can perform admirably at any arena in the country.
Big Favorite
The Warriors are no strangers to being large favorites. The threat of a blowout lingers over any DFS selection, but Curry has historically performed just fine during games in which the Warriors are double-digit favorites:
His +0.47 Plus/Minus and 50.4 percent Consistency isn’t superb by any means, but his average of 46.39 DK points per game as a 10-plus point favorite shows that he’s more than capable of putting up numbers during potential blowouts. Curry regularly sits out fourth quarters and averages only 33.5 minutes per game, so his ability to rack up fantasy points in potentially shortened outings shouldn’t be doubted.
Back-to-Backs
So far we’ve established that Curry is more than capable of dominating games regardless where it’s played and how big the spread may be. Sticking with the theme that he’s able to ball out under most circumstances, we see that he’s had no trouble taking over games when the Warriors are on the back end of a back-to-back:
Curry has thrived during the back end of a back-to-back regardless of whether it’s come at home or on the road. His 2A and 2H sample sizes aren’t huge, but he’s consistently smashed value when playing on consecutive days. Unfortunately, the public seems to be aware that Curry has historically been immune to back-to-back let-downs, as his ownership hasn’t dipped at all during the back end of a back-to-back.
Salary Drop of $500 or More
Curry’s ability to thrive under most conditions should lead to an unsurprising takeaway for our next trend:
He’s posted a +2.53 Plus/Minus with 58.9 percent Consistency and averaged 45.58 DK points per game when his salary has dropped by $500 or more during a given month. Curry isn’t exempt from having poor performances (such as his 0-11 3-point shooting performance during the Warriors’ February win over the 76ers), but he’s consistently surpassed his implied value whenever his salary has dropped by a significant amount. Slumping superstars tend to find their groove sooner rather than later, and Curry has repeatedly balled out when the industry has dropped his salary.
Salary Sweet Spot
Curry’s price has varied on DK this season, as he’s reached a low of $7,900 and a high of $10,000. Still, he’s settled in lately and has been priced at $9,500 or higher since early February. Curry’s average of 44.26 DK points per game this season implies that he should be priced at $9,400. This means he’s been a little overpriced lately, though this might not be the case if his salary remains steady even with the absence of Durant.
Curry has been priced slightly tighter on FanDuel this season, as he’s reached a low of $8,100 and a high of $9,900 through 60 games. He’s been priced above $9,000 since early January, though he hasn’t surpassed $9,500 since early February. Curry’s average of 40.6 FD points per game implies that he should be priced at $9,800, so it’s fair to say he’s been underpriced during recent weeks on FD.
On/Off
Curry’s presence on the court hasn’t led to any major increases in DK value or usage for any relevant teammates:
The top-four Warriors in DK Plus/Minus differential when Curry is on the court have all averaged fewer than 10 minutes per game this season. Obviously, Curry’s ability to hit 3s from the parking lot leads to great spacing on the floor for his teammates, but this hasn’t led to any wild increases in value for any of the Warriors’ regular starters.
Only Durant has truly thrived without Curry on the court this season:
This is a moot point for now, but Durant proved to be more than capable of carrying the offense without Curry on the court this season.
While Curry’s presence and absence on the court hasn’t resulted in significant DFS value for his big-name teammates, the absence of his Splash Brother has led to great value for Curry:
Curry’s +8.5 usage differential without Klay Thompson on the court is huge and it’s resulted in a ton of value. Coach Steve Kerr’s free-flowing offense is at its best when all of the Warriors’ studs are able to move the ball around until they find an open man, but it’s clear that Curry has embraced the role as the team’s featured offensive star when Thompson has sat.
This increase in usage is also evident when either Green or Durant has missed time:
Curry’s usage has picked up when any of his star teammates have sat, but he’s been at his best when Durant has been out. Curry has played in only one full game without Durant, and he scored 27 points during that win over the Nets. It’s not a given that his usage and shot volume will return to the wild levels from last season, but it’s fair to assume that Curry will take on a larger role in the offense, and this has led to a good amount of value this season.
Stacking the Warriors
Below is the average production for the Warriors during Curry’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons, first on FanDuel and then on DraftKings.
FanDuel
DraftKings
Curry’s top-10 fantasy performances over the past two seasons haven’t had a major impact on his key teammates. Green has posted the best Plus/Minus on both DK and FD among the Warriors’ regular starters, but it’s clear that playing Curry doesn’t require stacking him with one of his teammates. Of course, stacking multiple players from the league’s highest-scoring offense is never a bad idea and all of Curry’s teammates have proven more than capable of reaching their typical statistical thresholds during his biggest DFS games.
Conclusion
Curry’s ability to hit shots from anywhere and everywhere on the court is truly special. This skill has helped him ball out wherever he’s played, and he’s managed to consistently reach value during games in which the Warriors are favored by double digits. Curry’s salary may not drop by $500 or more in a month very often, but take advantage of the opportunity when it arises, as he’s consistently balled out following a significant salary drop.
Curry’s sample size this season with Durant inactive is exactly one game, but his usage and Plus/Minus have skyrocketed throughout the season with Durant on the bench. Look to feature Curry when his star teammates are forced to miss time and while his salary remains below $9,500 across the industry.
