This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
Paul Millsap isn’t your everyday superstar. Coach Mike Budenholzer’s Spurs-inspired offensive system has resulted in numerous Hawks sharing the team’s scoring burden over the years. The result was four teammates being named to the 2015 All-Star game. Still, after getting swept in back-to-back playoff appearances by LeBron James, the Hawks had to make some changes. Out were perennial starters Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague, and Al Horford, and in came Dwight Howard, Kris Humphries, and Mike Dunleavy. The one constant has been Millsap, who this season has emerged as the team’s alpha dog, averaging 37.22 DraftKings points per game (PPG).
Statistical Breakdown
Millsap has averaged a career-high 18.1 PPG in 65 games this season, thanks in large part to a career-high 14.2 field-goal attempts per game. He’s also become a more well-rounded playmaker, averaging a career-high 3.8 assists per game. With the increased offensive production, Millsap hasn’t been the same force on the other end. He’s averaged just 7.7 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game after averaging a career-high nine rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game last season.
Trends
Home/Away
Millsap has posted similar home/away splits since 2014 (per our Trends tool):
He’s been better at home, but not by a wide margin. Still, the split has become more pronounced this season:
His +4.4 Plus/Minus with 70 percent Consistency at home this season are impressive. At the same time, his -2.3 percentage point ownership differential indicates that the public is aware of his increased production at Philips Arena.
Big Favorite
The Hawks won’t be confused with the Warriors anytime soon, but they’ve put together a solid three-year run in the Eastern Conference. Overall, they’ve finished with no fewer than 48 wins in each of the past two seasons (although that streak might end this year). With their success, the Hawks have been heavy favorites on a number of occasions, which haven’t been productive for Millsap:
Millsap has surpassed his salary-implied total in just six of his 22 games as a double-digit favorite over the past three seasons. He’s averaging a career-high 14.2 field goal attempts per game this season, but that’s still just the 44th-highest mark among all players. Part of what makes Millsap an intriguing DFS asset is the abundance of ways in which he can pick up fantasy points, but with fewer opportunities in these games he’s woefully underperformed expectations.
Pace
The Hawks rank 12th in possessions per game this season, but Millsap has thrived when the offense has been forced to pick up the pace:
He’s crushed in his 17 games with a pace differential of at least +2.0. It’s not surprising to see Millsap perform better in high-pace games, but his ability to do well in slower-paced games is pretty special:
Millsap has been the better value in high-pace games, but he’s been just fine when the game has slowed down. Millsap is always an option in high-pace games, but he’s especially intriguing as a guaranteed prize pool candidate in slow-pace games, with his +3.74 Plus/Minus and -4.1 percentage point ownership differential.
Back-to-Backs
Millsap has been pretty good on the back end of back-to-back series:
He hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as he’s been at home — where he’s crushed — but he’s still been good enough to warrant consideration, especially since he might be rosterable in the back half of B2Bs at a discount to his standard ownership.
Salary Sweet Spot
Millsap has been priced tightly on DraftKings this season, with a low of $6,900 and a high of $8,200. He’s been pretty cheap on DraftKings for a while, priced under $7,500 in nearly every game since mid-February. Given that Millsap has averaged 37.72 DraftKings PPG, his implied salary is about $7,900. He’s been a bit underpriced on DraftKings lately.
Millsap has also been priced tightly on FanDuel this season with a low of $7,400 and a high of $8,500. He’s been priced over $7,500 since the beginning of March, but hasn’t reached $8,000 since mid-February. Given that Millsap has averaged 35.22 FanDuel PPG, his implied salary is about $8,500. Millsap has been very underpriced on FanDuel lately.
On/Off
No notable Hawks have produced extra value with Millsap on the court this season (per our On/Off tool):
In these query, none of the top Hawks in DraftKings Plus/Minus differential have played over 18 minutes per game this season.
When Millsap has been sidelined, his production has been distributed as expected:
Ersan Ilyasova is the backup power forward, so it makes sense that his usage and value have shot up without Millsap.
Millsap is technically a power forward, but contributes in a multitude of ways on offense, which has helped him thrive whenever any of the Hawks starters have been out:
Millsap’s team-high +16.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus differential with Kent Bazemore sidelined is a bit misleading, since it’s based on a two-game sample. Still, he’s been among the top Hawks in DraftKings Plus/Minus differential or Usage differential when the team’s starting point guard, wing, and center have been sidelined this season.
Stacking the Hawks
Below is the average production for the Hawks in Millsap’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past three seasons.
FanDuel
DraftKings
Just about all of Millsap’s teammates have also crushed in his top fantasy performances of the past three seasons. Howard, Ilyasova, and Bazemore have been Millsap’s best stacking partners, although Schroder has also performed well. In situations in which Millsap has the possibility of going off, he makes for an excellent stacking candidate with any of the Hawks starters.
Conclusion
Millsap’s rise to stardom came later than it does for most NBA stars. At 32-years old, he’s near the end of his prime, but he’s never been a fast-twitch player anyway. Millsap’s unique game has helped him thrive at home and in fast-paced games, although he’s struggled as a double-digit favorite.
Consider stacking Millsap with a fellow starter when appropriate, especially on FanDuel while his salary remains under $8,000.
