This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
Mike Conley became the NBA’s highest-paid player this past summer, which says more about the exploding salary cap than Conley’s level of play, but he was still expected to take a leap this season regardless. Conley has been happy to comply, as he’s enjoyed the best statistical season of his career under first-year head coach David Fizdale, averaging a career-high 37.06 DraftKings points per game (PPG).
Statistical Breakdown
Conley has never been a score-first guard, but he’s averaging a career-high 19.9 PPG this season thanks to a career-high 14.4 field goal attempts per game. He’s maintained his high efficiency even with the increased workload, as his 45/40/85 percent shooting splits are all above his career averages. Conley has averaged a career-high 3.5 rebounds per game through 54 games and has continued to work as the Grizzlies’ lead playmaker. With 6.1 dimes per game, Conley has now averaged over six assists per game in six of his last seven seasons.
Trends
Home/Away
Conley has been the same player at home and on the road over the past three seasons:
Per our Trends tool, he’s posted agnostic home/away splits since 2014. This season, though, he’s been much better on the road with significantly lower ownership:
Conley has averaged nearly three more DK PPG on the road this season. His 64 percent Consistency Rating on the road is far superior to his 53 percent mark at home. Consider Conley on the road, where he’s been the better player at reduced ownership this season.
Favorite/Dog
The Grizzlies’ physical style of play has perhaps led to the undervaluation of Conley throughout the years. The team has often been defined more by its two front-court behemoths, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, than its consistently excellent point guard. Despite flying under the radar during recent seasons, Conley has balled out as a Vegas underdog:
Once again we see that Conley has thrived in a suboptimal situation, especially this season:
He’s posted a +6.4 Plus/Minus as an underdog this season with 65 percent Consistency. The son of a former Olympic medalist, Conley is far from a real-life underdog, but as an NBA dog Conley is gold.
Back-to-Backs
Conley isn’t immune to the tough reality of NBA back-to-backs, but it’s been a different story depending on where he’s played:
Conley has struggled on the road in the second game of B2Bs, but he’s excelled in B2Bs at home — again at reduced ownership. This trend isn’t a slam dunk, though, since he’s had only 13 2H games since 2014.
High-Pace Games
The Grizzlies have spread the floor and picked up the pace this season in an attempt to mesh with some of the NBA’s new-look offenses. They don’t get off as many shots per game as the Warriors or Rockets, but it’s a step in the right direction for an offense that regularly has to deal with cramped spacing due to Tony Allen‘s “First-Team All-Defense” presence on the floor.
Conley has done an excellent job orchestrating the team’s new offense, and he’s especially thrived against high-pace opponents in 31 uptempo games since 2014:
The majority of these games have come this season, and Conley has been even better in the smaller sample:
Conley has averaged a career-high 5.8 three-point attempts per game this season, and it’s clear that he’s capable of excelling in up-and-down games.
Salary Sweet Spot
Conley’s salary has been volatile on DK this season, as he’s been priced as low as $6,000 and as high as $8,100. Since, the All-Star break he’s been priced over $7,500. Averaging 37.06 DK PPG this season, Conley has an implied salary of around $7,900, so he has been fairly priced in recent weeks.
On FD Conley has been priced tighter this season, with a low of $6,500 and a high of $8,000 through 54 games. Like DK, FD has priced him up lately, as he hasn’t been below $7,500 since before the All-Star break. Conley has averaged 34.49 FD PPG, which implies a salary of $8,300. In comparison to DK, FD has offered Conley at a slight discount recently.
On/Off
Conley’s presence on the court this season hasn’t led to much additional value for any of his relevant teammates (per our On/Off tool):
Three of the four Grizzlies with the top DK Plus/Minus differentials with Conley have averaged fewer than 14 minutes per game this season. Andrew Harrison has actually played more than Chandler Parsons, although Harrison has scored over 15 points just once in 59 games and isn’t a DFS option on most nights.
We see some familiar names when we check on how the Grizzlies have performed without Conley on the court this season:
Like Conley, Gasol has been more productive this season, and it’s not surprising that he’s thrived when Conley has missed action. As a seven-footer with 3-point range, Gasol can create offense on his own and doesn’t need his point guard to have a great game. Trick-or-treat Tony has also seen a bump in usage and value when Conley has missed time, averaging a three-year high 21.77 DK PPG this season.
When Gasol is out, Conley has enjoyed a +5.2 usage differential:
Even though Conley hasn’t enjoyed a significant DK Plus/Minus differential without Gasol, that could change, given that Gasol has missed just three games this season.
Stacking the Grizzlies
Below is the average production for the Grizzlies in Conley’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons, first on FD and then on DK.
FanDuel
DraftKings
Gasol and Randolph have clearly been the best options to stack with Conley. Both players have posted Plus/Minus values above +5.0 in Conley’s top-10 fantasy performances of the past two seasons. Allen and Toney Douglas (to a lesser extent) have shown positive correlation with Conley as well, although neither has provided value comparable to Randolph or Gasol’s. Look to stack Conley with one of the Grizzlies front-court monsters when the price is right.
Conclusion
Conley has made a career of playing great defense and getting his teammates involved. He’s taken on a larger scoring burden in recent seasons and hasn’t sacrificed any efficiency. Conley’s evolving game has resulted in his best fantasy season to date, and he’s consistently provided great value in seemingly suboptimal situations, thriving as an underdog, on the road, and in high-pace games.
Consider stacking Conley with either Gasol or Randolph, especially while Conley’s price remains below $8,000 FD.
