This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
Stars don’t usually emerge on their third NBA team, but Kyle Lowry isn’t a typical star player. After failing to average more than 18 points per game during each of his first 11 seasons in the league, Lowry has averaged 21-plus points per game over the past season and a half while continuing to dish out six to seven assists per game.
Lowry’s hot streak has morphed into a fire ball this season, as he’s currently shooting career highs from the field and three-point range. Throw in a career-high 4.8 rebounds per game and seven assists (his most since 2013), and it’s really no surprise he was selected to his third-straight All-Star game. Lowry’s on-court accomplishments have resulted in his averaging a career-high 43.39 DraftKings points per game this season.
Statistical Breakdown
Lowry has become a significantly different player over the last two seasons. Before last year, he’d never averaged more than 18 points per game. He’s now averaged 21-plus points per game during consecutive seasons while maintaining solid rebound and assist numbers. The main difference in his on-court play has been his increased presence at the free-throw line as well as more three-pointers per game. Overall, Lowry has attempted 7.8 three-pointers and 6.3 free throws per game this season.
Trends
Home/Away
There’s no doubting that Lowry and the Raptors have struggled away from the Air Canada Centre during the playoffs over the past three seasons. Overall, they’ve won just three of their 14 road playoff games since 2014. A look at his home/away splits during the regular season shows that Lowry has indeed been better at home — but the difference is only slight, and he’s been pretty fantastic everywhere:
Per our Trends tool, Lowry has averaged 41.44-plus DK points per game everywhere he’s played over the past two seasons. He’s been slightly better at home, though his 60 percent Consistency on the road is high enough that he should warrant fantasy consideration wherever he happens to be playing on any given night.
Favorite/Dog
Lowry and the Raptors have rarely been underdogs over the past two seasons. This designation hasn’t made a difference in Lowry’s play, as he’s historically balled out regardless of whether the Raptors are favored:
Lowry has been slightly more consistent as a favorite over the past two seasons, but he’s also provided more value as an underdog in terms of both Plus/Minus and ownership. As a dog, Lowry could provide an extra edge in guaranteed prize pools.
Big Favorite
The Raptors have gone 88-49 over the past two seasons. They’ve been heavy favorites on plenty of occasions, although that hasn’t historically hindered Lowry’s fantasy production:
He’s posted a +3.27 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and averaged 42.89 DK points during his 18 games as a double-digit favorite over the past two seasons. Backup point guard Fred VanVleet has played just 6.9 minutes per game this season.
Versus Elite/Bad Teams
Lowry tends to perform well regardless of the quality of his opponent, whether he’s playing elite or poor competition:
He’s actually been at his best against opponents with a win percentage of 60 percent or higher — and his ownership has been significantly lower than it has been against opponents with a win percentage of 40 percent or lower.
Lowry has lower ownership on the road, as an underdog, and against tougher competition. Given that he’s still managed to exceed value in those situations, he’s a desirable GPP play when he seems to be in suboptimal circumstances.
Salary Sweet Spot
Lowry’s DK salary has been as low as $7,300 and as high as $9,200 this season. His salary hovered between $8500 and $8900 for eight games during the end of January, although it jumped to $9,200 on February 5th. Lowry’s salary then sunk all the way to $8,000 in a matter of four games. Although he’s failed to surpass 37 DK points during four of his last six games, his season-long average of 43.39 DK points implies he should be priced at $9,200 on DK, suggesting that he’s been discounted recently.
Lowry’s salary has ranged from $7,400 to $9,600 on FanDuel this season. He’s been at $8,700 or higher since the end of January. Lowry’s season-long average of 39.81 FD points per game implies he should be priced at $9,500. He also looks discounted on FD.
On/Off
Lowry has dominated possession when he’s been on the court (per our NBA On/Off tool), as the two Raptors who do the best with him on the court have averaged fewer than 11 minutes per game this season:
Jonas Valanciunas and Lucas Nogueira have experienced small bumps in their usage and DK Plus/Minus Differential when Lowry has been on the court. Valanciunas is the more realistic stacking option, as he’s averaged 12.4 points and 9.9 rebounds per game this season compared to just 5.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per game for Nogueira.
Lowry’s back-court mate DeMar DeRozan has predictably excelled with Lowry off of the court:
When Lowry is out, the Raptors offense has gone through DeRozan, who has enjoyed massive increases in usage. Per NBA.com, DeRozan takes 4.6 isolation possessions per game — the seventh-highest mark among all players this season. His featured role on the offense when Lowry is out has resulted in DeRozan averaging 7.4 DK points above his implied point total. Jared Sullinger has seen massive increases in his usage and DK Plus/Minus Differential as well, although he’s played just 11 games this season and has yet to surpass 18 minutes in a single contest.
When DeRozan is off the court, Lowry doesn’t have the same increases in usage and DK Plus/Minus Differential. Lowry’s production hasn’t shown much of a difference regardless of who has taken the court with him. This is more evidence to the idea that Lowry has the ability to thrive regardless of the conditions around him.
Stacking the Raptors
Below is the average production for the Raptors during Lowry’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons, first on FanDuel and then on DraftKings.
FanDuel
DraftKings
The only two players who have significantly exceeded their implied totals during Lowry’s top-10 fantasy performances have been Pascal Siakam and Lucas Nogueira. Both players have averaged fewer than 22 minutes per game this season and have offered very little upside. Overall, neither player has surpassed 15 points or 10 rebounds in a game this season.
DeRozan and Valanciunas haven’t been terrible during Lowry’s top-10 fantasy performances, but they’ve also not offered any value. With agnostic splits across the board and very little correlation with his teammates, Lowry is a star player who is better off being played without a teammate.
Conclusion
Lowry has transformed into a dangerous score-first point guard over the past two seasons. He’s maintained his assist and rebounding numbers despite the uptick in his shooting, which has helped him perform well regardless of who and where he is playing. The public has rostered Lowry more when he’s been at home, a favorite, or playing a subpar team, but he’s still consistently surpassed his implied total on the road, as an underdog, and against strong opponents.
TL;DR: Lowry balls out regardless of the situation.
