This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
Kawhi Leonard has slowly but surely become the focal point of the Spurs offense. His field goal attempts per game mark has risen by at least 2.0 during each of the last three seasons, and he now ranks 21st in the league in that category. Leonard’s increased offensive role complements his status as one of the league’s most feared one-on-one defenders, as he’s now averaged at least 1.7 steals per game during each of the past five seasons. This combination has Leonard averaging a career-high 40.27 DraftKings points per game this season.
Statistical Breakdown
The retirement of Tim Duncan, along with the reduced minutes of Tony Parker and Danny Green, have helped Leonard assume a larger offensive role. Of course, that wouldn’t be possible if he wasn’t a lethal offensive weapon in his own right. Leonard has maintained his high level of efficiency from the floor while increasing his offensive output, but he’s also become a better all-around playmaker: His current average of 3.4 assists per game is a career-high. The cost from this offensive explosion has been Leonard’s rebounding, as he’s currently averaging 5.9 rebounds per game – the lowest mark since his rookie season.
Trends
Home/Away
Leonard has thrived this season on the road:
Per our Trends tool, we see that he’s averaged a +3.7 Plus/Minus on the road compared to a +1.2 Plus/Minus at the AT&T Center. In case you forgot, Leonard owns Mexico City, where he dropped 38 points on the Suns earlier this season.
Despite Leonard’s recent play on the road, his career splits paint a different picture:
Leonard’s career home/away splits show that he’s virtually the same player wherever he plays. His ownership has currently peaked during road games, but we have ownership data for only the last two seasons, so that is more likely than not just noise.
Favorite/Dog
The Spurs aren’t underdogs very often, but Leonard has taken his game to another level during those games this season:
Note that his +10.7 Plus/Minus isn’t as impressive when you consider that he’s been an underdog only three times this season, but a look at this split from the past three years tells a similar story:
Leonard has consistently exceeded salary-based expectations as an underdog. His actual average points haven’t been very different, but he’s historically been priced down as an underdog. His ownership percentage is from only three total games as a dog, although the very high ownership is a possible indicator that the public is on to Leonard’s success as an underdog.
Opponent Win Percentage
Leonard has historically performed better as an underdog, so we should expect him to also perform better against upper-echelon teams. Over the past three seasons, that assumption has proved to be correct:
Not only has Leonard averaged a +2.91 Plus/Minus against opponents with a win percentage of 60 percent or better, but he’s done it with 60.7 percent Consistency. Leonard has averaged the most minutes per game on the Spurs during each of the last three seasons, so it’s not surprising that he’s consistently exceeded expectations in games that he is needed most.
While Leonard’s impact against the game’s elite is great, he’s proven to be fairly inconsistent against the league’s bottom-dwellers:
Aside from Leonard averaging over three fewer DK points per game against opponents with a win percentage below 40 percent, Leonard’s Consistency has fallen off of a cliff: 41.7 percent makes him a very risky option in cash games against poor opponents, as his production hasn’t been the same.
On Road Trips
Many players struggle on road trips (including John Wall), and Leonard isn’t an exception:
He’s posted a -2.95 Plus/Minus with 26.7 percent Consistency and has averaged just 31.8 DK points when the Spurs have played three or more consecutive road games. Leonard has exceeded his implied point total only four times in 15 attempts.
Salary Sweet Spot
Leonard’s DK salary has fluctuated all season, as he’s been priced as low as $7,800 and as high as $9,400. He was cheaper than usual this past Wednesday at $8,300, but prior to that he had been in the $8,800 to $9,300 range during eight straight games. Based on Leonard’s season average of 42.8 DK points, we would expect him to have an average cost of $8,900. Leonard has surpassed 50 DK points during five of his last 12 games, so his salary will likely be closer to $9,000 than $8,000 in the near future. He’s been priced under $9,000 on 42 separate occasions this season and he’s exceeded his implied point total 61.9 percent of the time during those instances.
Leonard’s FanDuel salary has reached $10,100 this season, but has also been as low as $7,900. It’s been much closer to the former mark during recent weeks, as his salary hasn’t dipped below $9,400 since mid-January. Based on Leonard’s season average of 40.18 FD points, we would expect him to have an average cost of $9,600. While FD has arguably been more on point with Leonard’s salary during recent weeks, he’s still exceeded his implied point total during 70.2 percent of his games this season on FD.
On/Off
Leonard has the highest usage percentage on the Spurs, and their strategy changes immensely when he’s not on the court. The Spurs have the league’s fifth-slowest pace and this is most evident when Leonard sits out, as the offense begins to run through the post:
Per our On/Off tool, we see post players Pau Gasol, David Lee, and LaMarcus Aldridge all have large jumps in their usage percentage. This extra usage has benefited Gasol and Aldridge the most, as they’ve averaged +6.0 and +4.4 DK Plus/Minus marks, respectively, with Leonard off the court.
Accordingly, Leonard and Aldridge have been the main beneficiaries when Gasol has been off the court:
This is Gasol’s first season on the Spurs and he’s already missed time with a broken hand. While his role in the offense is potentially not yet set in stone, Aldridge has now been the team’s featured No. 2 player for two seasons. Leonard has especially taken over when he’s been out:
If Leonard is on the court, expect the offense to run through him. However, his usage is even higher when one of the Spurs’ frontcourt monsters is out. This also holds true when Parker has sat out.
With a player as talented in a variety of ways as Leonard, it’s not surprising that he takes on a larger offensive role when his teammates sit. We’ve now seen that Leonard’s offensive production and usage is correlated with not only the level of the opponent he’s playing but also which of his teammates are on the floor. Now let’s find out which teammates thrive with Leonard on the floor.
Stacking the Spurs
Below, I look at average production among Spurs players during Leonard’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons, first on FanDuel and then on DraftKings.
FanDuel
DraftKings
Among players who average at least 18 minutes per game, it’s clear that Gasol is the worst option to stack with Leonard. This is backed up by our findings from the On/Off section, which indicated that Leonard thrives with Gasol off the court. Parker has also proven to not have much success during Leonard’s big games.
Aldridge is the clear Spur to stack with Leonard. While Leonard has performed better with Aldridge off the floor, the same can be said for Aldridge, and he’s exceeded his implied point total by at least five points on both FD and DK during Leonard’s big games. Manu Ginobili (as well as David Lee) has also shown to be slightly correlated with Leonard during those games, and he could be a nice contrarian stack.
Conclusion
Leonard’s all-around greatness has made him a lethal weapon for coach Gregg Popovich to deploy whenever necessary. This has resulted in Leonard balling out against some of the league’s elite teams, as he’s averaged a +2.91 Plus/Minus against opponents with a win percentage of at least 60 percent over the past three seasons. Leonard has also taken on a heavier burden when one of his frontcourt teammates has been off the court, specifically Gasol.
The Claw hasn’t always been an elite scoring weapon, but he is now. Averaging 25.3 points on 49-40-90 shooting percentages is absolutely incredible and he’s accomplished this while playing the most minutes with the most usage for one of the best teams in the league. Look to capitalize on Leonard’s featured role against good opponents and when any of his teammates are forced to miss time.
