This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
Damian Lillard made headlines last season when he brushed aside coach Steve Kerr’s notion that Lillard “looked like Steph Curry out there” after he scored a career-high 51 points against the Warriors. Lillard’s intention wasn’t to send shade toward Curry, but his point was that he’s his own man and doesn’t impersonate anyone. Lillard has a point.
Curry, James Harden (scouting report), Klay Thompson, and Lillard have attempted the most three point attempts in the league over the past three seasons. While Curry and Lillard are similar in this regard, the latter has attempted nearly 400 additional two-point attempts and has gotten to the free-throw line 232 more times than Curry over that span. Lillard’s exciting style has helped him average 43.2 DraftKings points per game this season.
Statistical Breakdown
Lillard became the focal point of the Trial Blazers offense last season when he attempted a career-high 19.7 field goal attempts per game. He’s maintained his hefty workload this season with an average of 19.3 field goal attempts per game, and he’s averaged 0.9 free throws per game more this season than last season. Lillard’s rebounding and assist numbers have fluctuated over the past three seasons. Overall, he’s averaged between 4.0 and 4.9 rebounds, and 5.8 and 6.8 assists per game since 2014.
Trends
Home/Away
Lillard has been noticeably better at the Moda Center over the past three seasons:
Per our Trends tool, we see that he’s averaged a +2.0 Plus/Minus at home compared to a +0.1 Plus/Minus on the road. However, this trend doesn’t seem to hold up on a yearly basis. Lillard’s home/away splits were basically even during his rookie season. His large three-year splits are more the result of last season than anything else:
Lillard was undoubtedly better at home last season, as evidenced by his 59 percent Consistency there. Still, his splits from this season paint a different picture:
Lillard has actually averaged more DK points on the road this season. Despite the solid performances, his ownership has still been higher during his home games. Lillard has shown agnostic home/away splits during two of his last three seasons, but the public rosters him under the assumption that he’s demonstrably better at home. He’s proven to be a potent threat wherever he plays this season, and he should receive special guaranteed prize pool consideration on the road because of his ownership discount.
Opponent Win Pct
Lillard’s performance against elite teams has flip-flopped over the past two seasons. He’s struggled to get much of anything going against the league’s top teams this season:
But he was consistently excellent last season against teams of the same caliber:
It’s the same story for Lillard’s performance against bad teams, as last season he struggled against opponents with a win percentage of 40 percent or less, but he’s balled out against them this season. When the data from the past two years is combined we see that Lillard has performed similarly against poor and elite competition.
Back-to-Backs
A quick note from Sheriff Bill Monighetti on why we should be careful with back-to-back series:
This is going to be somewhat of a tangent, but I think we need to stop thinking of ‘back-to-backs’ as one category. Whether the second game of the back-to-back set has been played at home or on the road has been worth over one point in Plus/Minus for all players over a large sample. 2H games — the second game of a back-to-back set played at home — are less common but also much less detrimental to a player’s fantasy value than 2A back-to-back games.
This makes sense. In a best-case scenario, the 2H game is the second straight game at home. In a worst-case scenario, it’s probably better to play the second game of a B2B at home than on the road. With that said, Lillard once again demonstrates his uniqueness as a player with his performance in back-to-backs:
Lillard has actually been more productive and consistent in 2A than 2H games. He’s played 2H games on 16 separate occasions over the past three seasons, so his poor performance could be due to the small sample, but his overperformance on the road seems to align with the data from the two previous trends: Lillard comes to play on any given day, regardless of the arena, opponent, or situation.
Salary Change
Lillard has unquestionably exceeded his salary-based expectations when his salary has been reduced:
Lillard has posted a +2.48 Plus/Minus with 54.9 percent Consistency and averaged 40.59 DK points in 51 games when his salary has dropped by at least $500 over the past three seasons.
Salary Sweet Spot
Lillard’s DK salary has been volatile this season, reaching a low of $7,500 and a high of $9,600. A look at his season-long salary reveals the consistent vacillations of salary he’s had thus far:
Lillard’s average of 43.2 DK points per game this season gives him an implied salary of $9,200. As he’s been priced under $9,000 since early January, Lillard has been discounted during recent weeks. The salary drop was warranted during late January, as he scored fewer than 43 DK points during eight of nine games. Still, Lillard has rebounded lately, as he’s scored 46-plus DK points during his last three games as of February 12.
Lillard’s salary on FanDuel has also been volatile this season with a low of $8,200 and a high of $9,900. Given that Lillard has averaged 40.02 FD points per game this season, he has an implied salary of $9,600. As is the case on DK, Lillard recently has been discounted on FD, priced under $9,000 since early January.
On/Off
The emergence of C.J. McCollum has given the Trail Blazers a lethal one-two punch on offense, but make no mistake about it: When Lillard is on the court, he is running the show (per our NBA On/Off tool):
None of the players who have benefited with Lillard on the court are averaging over 20 minutes per game this season. Ed Davis is the closest to being a regular player, but his upside (4.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game) is limited.
Unsurprisingly, when Lillard is out, lots of people benefit:
McCollum clearly takes over the offense when Lillard sits, but regular contributors Mason Plumlee (recently traded to Denver) and Allen Crabtree have thrived when Lillard misses time. Lillard rarely misses games (12 total missed games in five seasons), but it’s not a bad idea to test out a McCollum-Crabtree GPP stack when the occasion arises.
Unlike Lillard, McCollum has missed time during each of his four NBA seasons (although he’s missed just two games during the last two seasons). As expected, Lillard has exceeded value when his back-court teammate misses time:
Based on the data, Lillard and McCollum are at their best without each other. The notion that the two teammates could be better off on their own teams is supported by this information. Even if they’re productive together, they don’t mutually enhance each other’s value.
Stacking the Trailblazers
Below is the average production for the Trail Blazers during Lillard’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons, first on FanDuel and then on DraftKings.
FanDuel
DraftKings
Both FD and DK give us the same three takeaways:
- Davis has exceeded his implied point total more than any other Trail Blazer in these games. While his individual ceiling may not be very high, he makes for an intriguing contrarian stack with Lillard.
- Turner, not McCollum, has been the better stacking partner. Once Turner is healthy, take advantage of any games McCollum may miss with a Lillard-Turner stack.
- A McCollum-Lillard stack is not the answer. The verdict out on whether the tandem can be an effective NBA back court, but the statistics above suggest that in terms of DFS the case is closed. Although McCollum has finished second on the Trail Blazers in fantasy points during Lillard’s best fantasy performances, he hasn’t offered any value.
Conclusion
Lillard is the new breed of point guard who can attack a defense by shooting from the three-point line as well as driving to the rim. We’ve seen that his brilliance hasn’t been diminished by his opponent, venue, timing, and salary declines.
Lillard’s on-ball dominance has resulted in poor DFS chemistry with McCollum, although Turner and Davis have proven to be solid stacking options. Look to capitalize on Lillard’s discounted salary across the industry as he continues to rack up 40-plus fantasy point performances.
