This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
Bradley Beal‘s talent has never been an issue. He averaged 17.1 points per game (PPG) in his second season on 42-40-79 shooting splits, and he’s consistently taken his game to another level in the playoffs. Unfortunately, Beal has missed a combined 46 games over the past two seasons and failed to alleviate consistently the team’s scoring burden on John Wall.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Beal’s $127 million dollar contract raised some eyebrows considering his injury history, but he’s earned every dime this season. He’s played in 66 of the Wizard’s 70 games and has averaged a career-high 35.29 DraftKings PPG this season.
Statistical Breakdown
Beal has never been shy about letting his shots fly, but his volume has gone to another level this season. He’s averaging a career-high 17.1 field goal attempts per game as well as 7.3 three-point attempts per game — an absurd 3.4 attempts more than his previous career high. Beal has chipped in about three rebounds and assists per game in every season of his career, but his DFS value is largely driven by his scoring production.
Trends
Home/Away
Beal has posted similar home/away splits throughout his career (per our Trends tool):
He’s averaged more DraftKings PPG at home over the past three seasons, although he’s had a higher Consistency Rating on the road. This trend has continued through 66 games this season:
Beal has performed just about the same wherever he’s played, and his ownership increase of 1.5 percentage points on the road is negligible. Intriguingly, his Plus/Minus at the Verizon Center is roughly double what it is elsewhere, indicating that he’s been significantly undervalued by DraftKings at home this season.
Favorite/Underdog
We see a similar story when we look at Beal’s Vegas splits:
Perhaps surprisingly, Beal has been better as an underdog over the past three seasons, but the gap has (somewhat) narrowed this season:
Although Beal’s produced similarly as an underdog and a favorite, he’s been much more consistent — and valuable — as an underdog. Overall, he’s reached his salary-implied total in 18 of his 26 games as an underdog compared to just 22 of his 40 games as a favorite this season.
Versus Elite/Poor Opponents
Based on our previous trend, we might expect Beal to perform well against both elite and poor opponents alike. This assumption proves correct:
Beal has posted a +5.42 Plus/Minus with 70.6 percent Consistency and averaged 34.53 DraftKings PPG against opponents with win percentages greater than 60 percent over the past three seasons. He’s still put up solid numbers against opponents with win percentages less than 40 percent, but there’s one key difference:
Beal has a +9.7 percent ownership differential against poor opponents. His heightened production against elite opponents has come without an ownership premium this season.
Pace
The Wizards ranked fifth in total possessions per game last season, but they’ve slowed down with new head coach Scott Brooks, falling to 12th in pace this season, although Beal has played his best when the Wizards have played in high-pace games:
He’s averaged 40.06 DraftKings PPG when the Wizards have a paceD greater than two this season. Beal hasn’t been terrible in slow-paced games . . .
. . . but it’s clear that he’s been the more valuable DFS asset when the Wizards have been able to run.
Back-to-Backs
As is the case with many players, Beal’s performance in back-to-backs has largely depended on whether he’s at home or on the road:
Beal’s ownership has been very low at home in the second game of a back-to-back — but his 12-game sample is limited. On the road, Beal warrants fade consideration on the back end of a back-to-back.
Salary Sweet Spot
Beal’s salary has been very volatile on DraftKings this season, with a low of $5,300 and a high of $8,200. He’s been closer to the latter figure lately, as he’s been priced above $7,500 since the beginning of March. Given that Beal has averaged 35.29 DraftKings PPG this season, his implied salary is around $7,500, so he’s been fairly priced in recent weeks.
We see the same story on FanDuel, where Beal’s salary has reached a low of $5,300 and a high of $8,500. He’s had a salary greater than $8,000 in five consecutive games at the time of this writing. Given that Beal has averaged 32.64 FanDuel PPG this season, his implied salary is about $7,900. Like DraftKings, FanDuel has priced Beal efficiently in recent weeks.
On/Off
No relevant Wizards with Beal on the court have smashed value more than they ordinarily would this season (per our On/Off tool):
There are some familiar names who have outperformed with Beal sidelined this season:
Wall’s usage has predictably spiked with Beal out of the lineup. Markieff Morris has played well in the sample, as he’s emerged as the offense’s No. 2 option without Beal.
Beal has played in only one full game without Wall this season. However, his usage has increased sharply when Wall has been on the bench:
Beal hasn’t turned his increased usage into a lot of extra value with Wall off the court this season, but he still functions primarily as the team’s featured scorer in that position. Wall has averaged more shots per game than Beal in every season in which they’ve been teammates. However, Beal has averaged more shots per game than Wall in each of the Wizards’ two playoff runs over the past five seasons.
Stacking the Wizards
Below is the average production for the Wizards in Beal’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past three seasons, first on FanDuel and then on DraftKings.
FanDuel
DraftKings
It’s clear that Wall and Porter are the best stacking options for Beal, especially Wall, as he ranks second in the league in assists and 60.2 percent of Beal’s buckets have come off of assists this season. Stacking Beal with one of the Wizards frontcourt behemoths (Morris and Marcin Gortat) has historically led to negative value when Beal’s been at his best.
Conclusion
Beal and the Wizards have taken the league by surprise this season. Finally healthy, Beal has managed to complement his career-high shooting volume with career-high shooting percentages. Beal has been fairly priced across the industry in recent weeks, but consider stacking him with Wall if his salary drops below $8,000 on either site, especially when he’s an underdog, against elite opponents, or in high-pace games.
