This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for MLB lineups.
There has been a large turnover in Seattle this offseason with about half of the batting order entering its first season with the Mariners, who look to utilize a more consistent lineup this season. Gone are split-specific players Nori Aoki, Seth Smith, Ketel Marte, and Adam Lind, who primarily played against right-handed pitchers (RHP). Also gone are Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-Ho Lee, and Chris Iannetta, who played primarily against left-handed pitchers (LHP).
Welcome to Seattle
The offseason has brought in everyday players Danny Valencia, Jean Segura, and Jarrod Dyson. Additionally, prospect Mitch Haniger has been promoted, and Carlos Ruiz has joined the team as the backup catcher. Dyson and Haniger will likely man the corner outfield positions as Nelson Cruz transitions to a full-time designated hitter.
New Power in Safeco Field
If you have followed the MLB for a while, you’ve probably heard Safeco Field mentioned as a “pitcher’s park.” From 2012-15, Safeco Field ranked 27th, 9th, 14th, and 8th in home runs per game. Then in 2016, Safeco Park yielded the most home runs of any park in the majors. How did the park’s HR/G mark climb from 27th in 2012 to first in 2016? Simply, the Mariners changed the dimensions of the field by bringing in the walls, thus creating a smaller playing field. Safeco is a pitcher’s park no longer.
While Dyson has little power and Ruiz is a backup catcher, Valencia and Segura could do well at Safeco:
On the surface it looks like there should be no issue for these two in transferring their power to Seattle. However, it is worth noting that Segura hit 20 HRs last season despite reaching double digits only one other time in his career. Segura has hit RHP better throughout his career (.315 wOBA versus RHP compared to .300 wOBA versus LHP), so the short left field will likely play to his strength. Valencia, on the other hand, mashes LHP to the tune of a career .377 wOBA vs. a .297 wOBA against RHP. Safeco’s dimensions will also play into Valencia’s strength of hitting to the left side of the field. (Split-specific batting statistics like these can be found in our Player Models.)
All of the Speed
The Mariners ranked 24th last season in stolen bases with just 56, and they can thank Leonys Martin for his team-leading 24. Despite losing their only other player with double-digit stolen bases (Ketel Marte with 11), they added a bunch of speed in the offseason. Segura has averaged just over 30 stolen bases per season over the past four years. And Dyson has averaged just over 32 stolen bases per season across the same time frame — with an average of just 273 plate appearances per season (about half of Segura’s total).
Handedness
Last season, the Seattle Mariners had more success against RHP than LHP (per our Trends tool):
Although the Mariners weren’t great against RHP, they had a higher raw point total, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating against RHP than LHP.
Left-Handed Pitching
The Mariners were especially uninspiring last year versus LHP. Here are their batters with at least 20 plate appearances against LHP in 2016:
As noted in the intro, the Mariners parted ways with many of the batters with negative Plus/Minus values vs. LHP, but they also no longer have Gutierrez, who was one of just three Mariners with a positive Plus/Minus against southpaws. However, the loss of Gutierrez should be more than counterbalanced by the addition of Valencia, and don’t underestimate Dyson (.432 wOBA versus LHP) and Ruiz (.357 wOBA versus LHP) as solid contributors. The Mariners have likely improved their hitting against LHP with some power righties who have the potential to take advantage of the shorter left-field wall.
Right-Handed Pitching
The Mariners had a positive Plus/Minus against righties last season, but they’ve still improved in that regard. Here are the batters with at least 50 plate appearances against RHP last season for the Mariners:
Seattle parted ways with all three of the players with negative Plus/Minus values against RHP. However, they also lost Aoki, who was one of the better hitters in this split.
Seattle ran out very splits-heavy lineups in 2016 — primarily left-handed hitters against RHP, and vice versa. Despite this, they last season still gave a significant number of at-bats vs. RHP to three lefties with neutral or negative Plus/Minus values. In bringing in Segura, Seattle gets a righty who hits RHP better with a career .315 wOBA. Haniger is also a right-handed hitter who has had more success against righties. In his short stint in the majors he has a .323 wOBA versus RHP compared to a .249 wOBA versus LHP.
Due to their reverse splits, it’s possible that Segura and Haniger could have lower ownership than their production warrants. Their early-season exposure will be worth monitoring in guaranteed prize pools across all stakes via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Pitch Types
For each slate we provide projected and verified MLB Lineups. As of now, the projected top of the Mariners lineup is as follows:
- Jarrod Dyson
- Jean Segura
- Robinson Cano
- Nelson Cruz
- Kyle Seager
The bottom of the order will likely be occupied according to splits-specific situations. Here’s how the projected top of the order fared against a multitude of pitches last season:
The projected top of the order had a lot of success against the sinker ball last season, putting together an elite .347 batting average and a .546 slugging percentage. This is something to keep in mind when the Mariners face a pitcher who uses the sinker regularly.
Conversely, the group struggled mightily against the slider last year with just a .229 batting average and a .413 slugging percentage. Not only do the Mariners deserve fade consideration against a pitcher who throws the slider, but that pitcher might be someone to roster, as the Mariners at the top of the order struck out almost 30 percent of the time.
Final Thoughts
The Mariners could offer some great stacking combinations at home this season if Safeco’s ‘pitcher’s park’ reputation depresses ownership more than it should. Additionally, there should be a lot less guessing when it comes to their daily lineup, as most of their batters will hit against lefties and righties. Due to the power and speed the Mariners have recently acquired, they are likely to be stackable in a multitude of ways. With our Lineup Builder, stacks can be incorporated into DFS rosters quickly and efficiently.
