This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for MLB’s brightest stars.
If the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to live up to their preseason hype, they’ll need Clayton Kershaw to pitch like he did in 2016 before a back injury derailed his unreal season in June. Let’s examine his prospects for 2017.
The Baseline
Over the last five years, Kershaw’s per-game baseline is a +7.9 Plus/Minus on FanDuel — almost two full points higher than that of the next pitcher with at least 100 outings (Max Scherzer, +6.1):
It’s important to keep this baseline in mind so we don’t fool ourselves into thinking that a Kershaw-related trend yielding a Plus/Minus of, say, +4.2 is ‘good.’ Not that we couldn’t play him in that situation, but we need to remember that (per the Trends tool) such a situation is suboptimal by Kershaw’s lofty standards.
Kershaw in Early-Season Form
When Opening Day arrives, pitchers are typically more on their A games than their opponents standing 60 feet six inches away. Their arms are live and they benefit from hitters not being in mid-season form. Aside from October — playoff baseball — the two best months for pitchers are April and May:
During most of his career Kershaw has been solid in the early months, but in 2016 his April/May numbers spiked due to his dominant start:
There were only two games last year in April and May when he did he not meet his salary-based expectations. In both games he was $13,000 with an expectation of 41 points. Kershaw fell just shy on both occasions.
This is something we’ll want to keep our eye on as we start the season: Will he return to his 2016 dominance? Or will he start the season as a mere mortal as he did before 2016?
Home/Away
Unsurprisingly, pitchers tend to do better at home, with significant increases in Plus/Minus, Consistency, and Upside.
As we’d expect, Kershaw performs better at home ,where his Plus/Minus and Consistency are remarkable:
This flashy number isn’t the result of his dominant 2016. Over the past three years, Kershaw has averaged at least a +13.2 Plus/Minus at home in each season. In 2012 and 2013, he still outperformed most pitchers at home with respectable +7.1 and +8.8 Plus/Minus values. Dodger Stadium suits him.
Park Factor
Our Park Factor metric is the historic percentile rank of a ballpark’s friendliness adjusted for handedness. For pitchers, the higher the Park Factor is the friendlier the ballpark. Dodger Stadium is typically in the mid-to-upper 60s. In his career, Kershaw has a +0.82 Plus/Minus when pitching in stadiums with Park Factors between zero and 40, which seems to be an approximate tipping point. When pitching with a Park Factor greater than 40, Kershaw has an +8.44 Plus/Minus:
No matter how favorable of a park Kershaw is in, though, it never suits him as well as Dodger Stadium. On the road with a Park Factor above 80, Kershaw has a +4.79 Plus/Minus, which is respectable — but it doesn’t come close to his +11.2 at home.
Pitching in the NL West
Pitchers tend to better outside of division, presumably because hitters are less familiar with their pitches. Kershaw has a ‘subpar’ (for him) +6.8 Plus/Minus in his division, but if we dig deeper we see something intriguing:
In his 13 career starts against the Diamondbacks, Kershaw has a -1.4 Plus/Minus. Only three other teams (NY Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Texas Rangers) have forced Kershaw into a negative Plus/Minus, and of those three teams only the Pirates have faced him more than twice.
Of the games against Arizona, seven were at Chase Field in Arizona (the Coors Light of ballparks), where Kershaw has a -5.7 Plus/Minus. In his six home starts against the Diamondbacks, Kershaw has earned a +3.5.
We must notice, though, that the Diamondbacks faced Kershaw once last year, and Kershaw smashed. On June 15 at Chase Field, Kershaw outscored his salary-based expectation of 41 points with a 61-point outing.
Vegas and Kershaw
A dominant pitcher, Kershaw doesn’t pitch many games in which the odds aren’t in his team’s favor to win in convincing fashion. As this next trend shows, when Vegas doesn’t favor the Dodgers heavily, Kershaw’s performance declines:
Of his 18 ‘non Vegas’ games, only one was last year, a dominating performance against the Blue Jays. In only one of those 18 occurrences were Kershaw’s Dodgers actually the underdog, and that happened against St. Louis in 2012. When favored with Kershaw on the mound, the Dodgers enjoy an average moneyline of -153.
None of the 18 ‘non Vegas’ games were in Dodger Stadium, and 12 of the 18 were in Colorado or Arizona, both extremely hitter-friendly stadiums.
K Prediction
Strikeouts are key to any DFS pitching performance. One of the best metrics for predicting fantasy success is our K Prediction. Overall, when we predicted a pitcher to have eight or more strikeouts in a game last season, 6.22 points were added to his FanDuel Plus/Minus.
When Kershaw is predicted to whiff at least eight batters in a start, his Plus/Minus inflates to +10.2. That’s a healthy increase of 2.3 points above his baseline.
Conclusion
Rostering Kershaw is almost never a bad decision — especially not when he’s in his 2016 form. There are, however, situations in which rostering him is likely not an optimal decision. Kershaw historically overperforms at home, as a heavy Vegas favorite, and when he’s projected to strike out at least eight batters.
