This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy Masters scouting reports for golf’s brightest stars.
A former world No. 1 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Rory McIlroy is a two-time PGA Player of the Year and four-time major championship winner. Having already won the U.S. Open, The Open Championship, and the PGA Championship (twice), McIlroy could complete the majors grand-slam with a Masters win.
Let’s dive into the numbers of the 27-year-old from Northern Ireland.
Statistical Breakdown
McIlroy’s DFS game has been heading in the wrong direction direction over the last three full years. His 90.75 average DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) and +16.2 Plus/Minus plummeted to 77.41 PPT last year and an undesirable -8.5 Plus/Minus in 2015.
However, in a five-tournament sample this season Rory has been elite, averaging a lovely 111.0 PPT and +26.5 Plus/Minus with a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating.
In 49 tournaments since 2014, McIlroy has averaged 86.05 PPT and a +4.81 Plus/Minus with 61.7 percent Consistency. During that time he has been owned at an average of 24.9 percent in large-field mid-stakes DraftKings tournaments.
Trends
Augusta National Course History
McIlroy’s recent history at Augusta isn’t terrible, but it’s not Jordan Spieth-like. His averages are hurt by last year’s 75.5-point DraftKings performance in which he yielded an ugly -4.92 Plus/Minus.
Spieth: Masters Report
Per our Trends tool, in the two years prior to 2016 McIlroy averaged 89.25 PPT and a +4.87 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency. He was a beast in 2015, racking up 105.5 points and a +7.64 Plus/Minus.
Rory’s history at the Masters would be incomplete without mentioning 2011: Despite leading the tournament after each one of the first three rounds — and by four shots to start the final round — Mcllroy shot a Masters-worst 80 in the final round, finishing T15.
Vegas Odds
Rory hasn’t been anything special with double-digit odds to win:
Of his 26 tournaments with at least 10 percent odds, McIlroy has posted 100 DraftKings points or more in nine and failed to meet his salary-based expectations in 12. And his ownership in these events has been high.
McIlroy has been much more valuable with odds of less than 10 percent: In 21 such tournaments since 2014, he has posted 86.4 PPT and a chunky 9.87 Plus/Minus with an amazing 71.4 percent Consistency.
For the Masters, Rory currently checks in with the third-highest odds to win (11.8 percent). In both 2015 (13.3 percent) and 2016 (11.1 percent) he had similar odds at Augusta, finishing with an average of 90.5 PPT and a +1.36 Plus/Minus.
Current Form
The Masters: Player Type
McIlroy’s current Long-Term Adjusted Round Score of 67.6 is tied with Dustin Johnson for the best score in the Masters field.
Johnson: Masters Report
But what characterizes Rory’s game and distinguishes him from the rest of the players trying to win the green jacket at Augusta? Let’s have a look at the metrics.
A Birdie-Machine, Driving Distance, and Greens in Regulation
The graph above shows how McIlroy lines up with the rest of the field on a metric-by-metric basis. It’s easy to see that he is the class of the field in Adjusted Birdies Per Round and well ahead of the field in both Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation.
Rory leads the Masters field with a redonkulous 18.1 LT Adjusted Birdie Average. Only three other golfers in the field — Johnson, Spieth, and Jon Rahm — have an average of at least 17 per tournament. According to our Trends tool, golfers with a LT Adjusted Bird Avg of at least 16.5 have manufactured an +8.74 Plus/Minus at Augusta National. Birdies are good: McIlroy’s ability to string together birdies will help him achieve the Streak Bonus in FanDuel’s scoring system and has helped him average a second-best 88.7 PPT on DraftKings the past 12 months.
McIlroy’s 308.3-yard LT Driving Distance ranks third, and he’s one of just eight golfers in the field with an average of at least 305 yards. Rory is one of the rare golfers who can both hammer it off the tee and crush GIR: McIlroy’s 72.3 percent LT GIR puts him behind only seven golfers in this Masters field. Golfers ranking inside the 90th percentile for LT GIR have historically offered a generous +12.82 Plus/Minus at Augusta National.
Conclusion
Rory’s game is complete: He can bomb it off the tee, find greens with great regularity, and excel at converting birdies. Despite his final-round collapse in 2011, McIlroy has demonstrated in his recent history that he’s ready to don a green jacket. One issue is that his relatively low salary on DraftKings (where he is nearly $1,000 less than both Johnson and Spieth) could result in excessive ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after the Masters starts.
Rory is priced more judiciously on FanDuel’s slate for the Masters, where DFS players will need to decide if playing him in the early rounds or on the weekend is more appropriate.
For more information on FanDuel PGA, check out these articles:
- The Daily Fantasy Flex, PGA: FanDuel Golf
- Breaking Down FanDuel vs. DraftKings Golf Scoring
- First-Half Versus Second-Half Golfers
- Key PGA Stats for First-Half vs. Second-Half Golfers
Regardless of your site of choice, McIlroy is a scoring machine who is playing great golf and needs to be considered in all formats.
