This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy Masters scouting reports for golf’s brightest stars.
An Asian Amateur Champion, eight-time winner on the Japan Golf Tour, and four-time PGA Tour winner, Hideki Matsuyama has one top-10 finish in each of the four major championships since 2013.
Let’s dive into the numbers of the 25-year-old from Japan.
Statistical Breakdown
Matsuyama’s DFS game showed steady growth in average DraftKings points per tournament (PPT), Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating from 2013 to 2015, but last year he took a major dive, exceeding his salary-based expectations in just 12 of 20 tournaments.
This season, though, in a nine-tournament sample Hideki has provided an elite 92.5 PPT and +17.7 Plus/Minus. He has done so, however, with some volatility: He has a career-low 55 percent Consistency Rating and yet a career-high 11 percent Upside Rating.
In 70 tournaments since 2014, Matsuyama has averaged 71.25 PPT and a +6.05 Plus/Minus with 64.3 percent Consistency. During that time he has been owned at an average of 19.0 percent in large-field mid-stakes DraftKings tournaments.
Trends
Augusta National Course History
While Hideki’s recent history at Augusta isn’t Jordan Spieth-esque, he has exceeded his salary-based expectations in two out of the last three years.
Spieth: Masters Report
Per our Trends tool, over the last two years Matsuyama has averaged 87.5 PPT at Augusta and an amazing +29.54 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency. He was particularly productive in 2015 with 101.5 points and an enormous +45.96 Plus/Minus.
Hideki finished fifth in 2015 and T7 last year at Augusta National. His 69.1 Course Adjusted Round Score — accessible in our Player Models — is 24th among the golfers in the field who have made more than one start at Augusta.
Vegas Odds
Matsuyama currently has the fifth-best odds to win (4.8 percent) the Masters. He has been a steady performer with comparable (3.5 to 6.1 percent) odds to win in the past:
He has scored at least 90 points in six (40 percent) of his 15 tournaments with similar odds. And his ownership in these events hasn’t been excessively high.
Matsuyama has never had better than 2.4 percent odds to win the Masters. With those odds last year, he finished with 73.5 points and a +13.12 Plus/Minus.
Current Form
Unlike Dustin Johnson, who has been locked in for all of 2107, Hideki’s road has been a bit rocky.
Johnson: Masters Report
In seven tournaments this calendar year, Hideki has failed to exceed salary-based expectations on four occasions. When the good Hideki comes out to play, however, he is quite good, averaging 112.33 points in the three tournaments in which he did exceed expectations.
There are 24 golfers in the Masters field with Recent Adjusted Round Scores better than Hideki’s 68.9, but at least he has displayed some added power lately: His 301.7-yard Recent Driving Distance is 14th overall this week.
Matsuyama started off the year with a win and a runner-up finish in his first four starts, but since then he has missed a cut and finished no higher than 25th.
The Masters: Player Type
Matsuyama’s current Long-Term Adjusted Round Score of 68.5 ranks eighth in the Masters field, which is led by Johnson and Rory McIlroy at 67.6.
McIlroy: Masters Report
So what characterizes Hideki’s game and distinguishes him from the rest of the players trying to win the green jacket at Augusta? Let’s have a look at the metrics.
A Well-Rounded Game
The graph above shows how Matsuyama lines up with the rest of the field on a metric-by-metric basis. Hideki stays well ahead of the field in Birdies Per Round and Putts Per Round while hitting more Greens in Regulation and having a longer Driving Distance than most.
Matsuyama’s 15.3 LT Adjusted Birdie Average is tied for eighth in a Masters field in which only 14 golfers have an average of at least 15 per tournament. According to our Trends tool, golfers with a LT Adjusted Bird Avg of at least 15 have produced a +5.34 Plus/Minus at Augusta National. Per usual we love birdies, and Hideki’s ability to rack them up has helped him average 73.9 PPT on DraftKings over the past 12 months, good for 16th in the field. However, Matsuyama’s recent penchant for bogies (his 11.0 Recent Adjusted Bogies Per Tournament is the 13th in the field) needs to be considered when rostering him, especially on FanDuel.
Matsuyama’s 28.8 LT Adjusted PPR is tied for 17th in the field. His 67.9 percent LT GIR is a top-35 mark this week. Golfers with comparable LT metrics have historically produced a +4.43 Plus/Minus at Augusta National.
Conclusion
Matsuyama is a boom-or-bust option this week. He has demonstrated an ability this season to score as many as 128.0 points (Phoenix Open) or as few as 21.0 (Genesis Open). If you can stomach the risk, you can potentially roster him at lower ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after the Masters starts.
Hideki may make more sense on FanDuel’s slate for the Masters, where DFS players can play him in the early rounds without fear of a missed cut.
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