This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy Masters scouting reports for golf’s brightest stars.
UPDATE
PGA note: Dustin Johnson injures lower back after taking fall on stairs. Manager says DJ “hopes” to play tomorrow – per @AP
— FantasyLabs GOLF (@FantasyLabsGOLF) April 5, 2017
In the last 12 months and over the course of 25 starts, Dustin Johnson has recorded 19 top-10 and 12 top-three finishes. He has compiled six wins, including one major championship and three World Golf Championship titles on his way to being ranked as the world’s No. 1 golfer. That’s a pretty good run. Let’s dive into the numbers of the 32-year-old from Columbia, South Carolina.
Statistical Breakdown
Johnson’s DFS game has clearly been trending in the right direction over the last four years. Each season he has increased his average DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) and Plus/Minus. Last year DJ averaged a delicious 88.05 PPT and +12.5 Plus/Minus in 20 events.
So far this season Johnson has been even better, averaging an incredible 93.29 PPT and +14.3 Plus/Minus with a highly desirable 71 percent Consistency Rating.
In 58 tournaments since 2014, Johnson has averaged 81.13 PPT and a +7.54 Plus/Minus with 65.5 percent Consistency. During that time he has been owned at an average of 29.0 percent in large-field mid-stakes DraftKings tournaments.
Trends
Augusta National Course History
At first glance, DJ’s recent history at Augusta does not look good, but these numbers are badly skewed by a horrific 2014 performance in which he accumulated only 16.0 DraftKings points and posted an ugly -50.8 Plus/Minus.
His numbers the past two years are much more appealing: Per our Trends tool, he has averaged 91.75 PPT and a +24.64 Plus/Minus. He finished T4 and T6 in his two most recent trips to Augusta National.
Vegas Odds
As you see, Johnson has been excellent with double-digit odds to win. Of the 18 tournaments with at least 10 percent odds, DJ posted 100 DraftKings points or more in eight. It’s worth noting his average ownership in these events has been 31.2 percent in large-field mid-stakes tournaments.
He hasn’t been terrible with odds of less than 10 percent either: In 40 such tournaments since 2014, he has posted 77.08 PPT and a +6.21 Plus/Minus with 67.5 percent Consistency.
For the Masters, DJ currently checks in with the highest odds to win (15.4 percent). In 2015 he had 6.3 percent odds to win at Augusta, finishing with 105.0 DraftKings points and a +45.21 Plus/Minus.
Current Form
Johnson has been in the proverbial zone since a missed cut at the PGA Championship in July of last year. In his most recent six tournaments, DJ has earned his ridiculously high ownership.
His 65.9 Recent Adjusted Round Score leads the Masters field as does his 22.0 Recent Adjusted Birdie Average. DJ’s 321.8-yard Recent Driving Distance ranks second in the field, and his impressive 27.8 Recent Putts Per Round is 14th overall.
DJ has two wins and a third-place finish in his last three starts.
The Masters: Player Type
Johnson’s current Long-Term Adjusted Round Score of 67.6 is tied for the best score in the Masters field. But what defines DJ’s game and differentiates him from the rest of the players trying to win the green jacket at Augusta? Let’s have a look at the metrics.
Monster Off the Tee and An Elite Birdie Maker
The graph above shows how Johnson lines up with the rest of the field on a metric-by-metric basis. It’s easy to see that he is the class of the field in both Driving Distance and Adjusted Birdies Per Round.
Johnson leads the Masters field with a gargantuan 314.6-yard LT Driving Distance. Only one other player in the field — J.B. Holmes — has a LT DD average longer than 310 yards. There are 17 total players in the field who average at least 300 yards off the tee. According to our Trends tool, golfers with a LT DD of at least 305 yards have generated a +7.81 Plus/Minus at Augusta National.
Like Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, Johnson has a top-three LT Adjusted Birdie Average in the field.
Spieth: Masters Report
In fact, Johnson’s 17.2 LT Adjusted Birdie Average is second to only Rory McIlroy, which enhances DJ’s value in the DraftKings scoring system. It’s worth mentioning that there are only 16 players in the entire field who average even 15.0 birdies per tournament. And Johnson’s 18th-ranked 8.0 LT Adjusted Bogeys Per Round will help him in FanDuel’s scoring system.
And DJ doesn’t just drive for show. The dude can also putt for dough. His 28.8 LT Adjusted Putts Per Round ranks 16th in the field, and he is one of only 25 players with a current LT PPR of less than 29.0.
Per our Trends tool, players with comparable LT metrics have previously provided a +7.34 Plus/Minus at Augusta National.
Conclusion
What more can I say about the current No. 1 golfer in the Official Wold Golf Rankings? Johnson has finished no worse than sixth-place at the Masters the past two years, and he is easily playing the best golf of his career right now. The main concern with DJ is his ownership, which Pro subscribers will be able to review across GPPs of all stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after the Masters starts. Will he approach 40 percent ownership, as he did at last year’s PGA Championship — where he missed the cut?
Johnson is rightfully the most expensive golfer on FanDuel’s slate for the Masters, where going contrarian by playing DJ in rounds one and two (rather than as the chalk in rounds three and four) could be an extremely sharp option for tournaments this week.
For more information on FanDuel PGA, check out these articles:
- The Daily Fantasy Flex, PGA: FanDuel Golf
- Breaking Down FanDuel vs. DraftKings Golf Scoring
- First-Half Versus Second-Half Golfers
- Key PGA Stats for First-Half vs. Second-Half Golfers
On DraftKings, Johnson is actually priced lower than Jordan Spieth, and we currently have him projected at 21 to 25 percent ownership in our Player Models. Johnson is locked in right now. Fade him at your own risk.
