Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football (NFL DFS). Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Justin Herbert, QB (Los Angeles Chargers) Week 6 DraftKings Price $7,300; Week 7 DraftKings Price $8,000
The top quarterback so far this season in fantasy points per game, Justin Herbert, keeps finding ways to produce for the Chargers, despite recent injuries to Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams.
Herbert finished 22-37 for 227 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys on Monday night. With scoring down across the league, that tally was good for sixth at the position in Week 6. He has four top six finishes among quarterbacks in his first five games this season.
The top of the salary chart is jumbled for quarterbacks, with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Herbert all within $400. Herbert doesn’t provide the rushing upside of Allen or Hurts, but he will need to put up points with his arm this week against Kansas City.
Raheem Mostert, RB (Miami Dolphins) Week 6 DraftKings Price $6,400; Week 7 DraftKings Price $7,600
We thought the Dolphins offense could be explosive, but they have taken that to another level so far in 2023. The Dolphins have gained over 100 yards more per game than the next highest team. They lead the league by far in both passing (316.8) and rushing (181.8) yards per game.
The consistent trait in Miami is speed, and Raheem Mostert has plenty of it. Even with De’Von Achane notching breakout performances from the same backfield, Mostert continues to impress. He is second in running back fantasy points on the season to Christian McCaffrey but has 35 fewer rushing attempts.
With Achane on the mend, Mostert should be the feature back again for Miami against a good Philadelphia defensive front. Normally, this matchup would spark some fear for fantasy owners, but the potential is too juicy with Mostert. He has three top-two fantasy weeks already in 2023.
Keenan Allen, WR (Los Angeles Chargers) Week 6 DraftKings Price $7,800; Week 7 DraftKings Price $8,600
Keenan Allen is possibly the best reason why Justin Herbert tops the quarterback fantasy totals through six weeks. The veteran wideout may not have top-end speed any longer, but he simply gets open.
Allen has averaged 11 targets per game through Week 6 with two No. 1 fantasy weekly finishes at the position thus far. Though he has never been a touchdown monster, Allen has tallied four scores this season, already matching his 2022 output.
The Chargers face a good Kansas City defense this week, but the game certainly has shootout potential. Allen is a top-end fantasy option, even with the salary jump.
Kyle Pitts, TE (Atlanta Falcons) Week 6 DraftKings Price $3,500; Week 7 DraftKings Price $4,000
Kyle Pitts found the end zone for the first time in 2023 against the Commanders. Combined with a modest four catches for 43 yards, that score elevated him to the third-highest tight end scorer of Week 6.
The talent for Pitts is undeniable, but the opportunities have yet to take advantage of his athleticism. In three seasons, he now has four total touchdowns.
The targets have been stronger in 2023, with 17 over the last two weeks. If those targets can turn into production and even sporadic scoring opportunities, Pitts is undervalued at this price level.
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Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Russell Wilson, QB (Denver Broncos) Week 6 DraftKings Price $5,800; Week 7 DraftKings Price $5,400
In what may be another lost year for the Broncos, Russell Wilson threw for a minuscule 95 yards last week against the Chiefs. He finished outside the top 20 of fantasy quarterbacks and threw multiple interceptions for the first time this season.
Despite the Broncos’ rough record, Wilson has largely kept fantasy owners content this season. He has two top 10 weekly quarterback finishes and multiple touchdown passes in all but two games. His rushing numbers are still nowhere near his early years with the Seahawks, but he’s added at least 30 yards on the ground in half the games this season.
He is still trying to find a No. 1 receiver among the likes of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Marvin Mims in Denver, and the rushing attack led by Javonte Williams has been relatively ineffective. The Broncos face a mid-pack Packers defense this week. Wilson is probably the best out of your lineups until he finds some consistent upside.
Rachaad White, RB (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Week 6 DraftKings Price $5,500; Week 7 DraftKings Price $5,100
Things just have not gone well for Rachaad White this season, despite no lack of opportunity for the Buccaneers. White’s carries fell significantly to seven on Sunday after totaling at least 15 in each of the first four games.
The second-year running back is expected to be a large part of the offense with Baker Mayfield now at the helm. Through his first 70 carries this season, he has struggled to just 232 yards and a 3.3 yards per carry mark. His 3+ catch average per week has kept him relevant, but only one total touchdown is disappointing.
White is beginning to lose touches to Ke’Shawn Vaughn and needs to show some life before he can be trusted in lineups. This could make him a risky buy low target.
Puka Nacua, WR (Los Angeles Rams) Week 6 DraftKings Price $8,000; Week 7 DraftKings Price $7,600
Did the glass slipper fall off this week for rookie sensation Puka Nacua?
Nacua burst onto the scene this season with Cooper Kupp sidelined. Through the first five weeks, Nacua caught 46 passes for 572 yards and two scores as a PPR machine. With Kupp playing his second game of the year, Nacua’s production was slashed to four catches and 26 yards in Week 6.
Kupp appears to be at 100% with seven catches for 148 yards and a score last Sunday. With him re-taking the No. 1 role, can Nacua carve out enough targets to remain a top wide receiver option?
Expect Nacua’s price to continue dropping over the next few weeks. Eventually, he will likely fall into bargain territory, but we are not yet at that threshold.
Hunter Henry, TE (New England Patriots) Week 6 DraftKings Price $4,400; Week 7 DraftKings Price $4,100
After 11 total catches in the first two weeks of the season, Hunter Henry has just seven total receptions in the last four games. He has one grab for seven yards in the last two weeks combined.
The Patriots offense has managed just 20 points over the last three games combined with little signs of improvement. Stay away from Henry until further notice.
