Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football (NFL DFS). Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
C.J. Stroud, QB (Houston Texans) Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,600; Week 5 DraftKings Price $6,000
When will the shoe drop for the talented rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud in Houston? The second pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Stroud is setting all sorts of rookie records through his first four games.
He has thrown 151 pass attempts without an interception thus far and engineered two convincing upsets against the Jaguars and Steelers over the last two weeks. He has three straight games with two touchdown passes and has increased his yards per attempt each week to 10.2 against Pittsburgh.
Stroud has finished in the top 13 of fantasy quarterbacks each of the last three weeks and has turned receiver Nico Collins into a fantasy star early in the season. Expect him to struggle at some point this season as a rookie, but right now, Stroud still seems like a strong value for lineups.
Derrick Henry, RB (Tennessee Titans) Week 4 DraftKings Price $7,000; Week 5 DraftKings Price $7,500
The Tennessee Titans got back to their roots on Sunday against the Bengals in a 27-3 romp. That recipe is simple, give Derrick Henry the ball.
Henry touched the ball 23 times in Week 4 for 133 total yards and a touchdown. He averaged over five yards per carry for the first game this season, but only one target on the day is still a bit disappointing. With 33 receptions last season, upside opportunity is there for Henry to have blow-up games for fantasy owners, despite a slow start.
At 29 years old, the running back age cliff is looming for Henry. The Colts have allowed the fourth-most yards this season, and the Titans should continue to give him the rock in what should be a close matchup.
Nico Collins, WR (Houston Texans) Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,100; Week 5 DraftKings Price $5,600
With C.J. Stroud lighting it up in the pocket, Nico Collins has quickly become his favorite target for the Texans. He ranks seventh in PPR points among receivers after finishing 77th in 2023.
Collins is averaging 19.5 yards per reception on the season, with at least nine targets in three of the first four games. He has boom-or-bust traits as a physical outside receiver in this offense, with over 27 points in two games this season and down weeks in the other two.
The Texans may just be for real this year, with two major upsets in the last two weeks. Collins and Stroud seem to have a connection, and the salary rise still leaves plenty of value on the table for fantasy owners.
Cole Kmet, TE (Chicago Bears) Week 4 DraftKings Price $4,000; Week 5 DraftKings Price $4,300
The Bears offense woke up in Week 4 in an exciting shootout loss against the Broncos. Cole Kmet was the recipient of nine targets for seven catches, 85 yards, and two touchdowns.
Despite not eclipsing double-digit PPR fantasy points in the first three weeks of the season, Kmet’s Week 4 performance elevated him to the top three in season-long tight end fantasy points. That production seems unlikely to repeat this week against the Commanders with the volatility of the Bears offense.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Joe Burrow, QB (Cincinnati ) Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,500; Week 5 DraftKings Price $6,200
Joe Burrow has certainly been limited with an ankle injury this season, but it’s hard to understand just how bad the Bengals’ offense has been through four weeks. Cincinnati is dead last in the NFL with 236 yards per game and next-to-last with 49 total points scored.
Through Week 4, Burrow has yet to crack the top 20 in quarterback scoring in any week. He has just two touchdowns on the season to go with two interceptions and has a shockingly low 4.8 yards per attempt.
The upside is there for Cincinnati based on previous seasons. Burrow finished fourth last season in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks and faces a Cardinals defense in the bottom 10 of passing yards and points allowed this season. The ankle is the biggest question on when his production may take an upswing.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB (New England Patriots) Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,100; Week 5 DraftKings Price $4,700
As the secondary tailback option in New England, Ezekiel Elliott seemed to be trending up after Week 3, where he turned 16 carries into 80 yards. Expectations were high for a revenge game against the Cowboys on Sunday, then were quickly dashed in the worst loss of Bill Belichick’s career.
Elliott has a combined 18 carries in Weeks 1, 2, and 4 and has yet to reach the end zone. With Rhamondre Stevenson taking the lead back role, he is simply a handcuff running back at this point in his career.
Leave him out of lineups unless an injury to Stevenson shakes things up for his fantasy potential.
Jordan Addison, WR (Minnesota Vikings) Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,700; Week 5 DraftKings Price $5,300
The first-round rookie notched touchdowns in each of his first two games for the Vikings, but the usage has spiked downward for the USC product.
In Week 4, Jordan Addison saw just one target his way and went without a catch for the first time in his career. At just 175 pounds, he has struggled with blocking assignments which has taken him off the field for long portions of games.
If Addison can get more physical in separating from press coverage, his speed is dangerous in the open field. He remains a lottery ticket option for lineups this week, as the Vikings will need to score to keep up with the Chiefs’ potent offense.
Dallas Goedert, TE (Philadelphia Eagles) Week 4 DraftKings Price $4,400; Week 5 DraftKings Price $4,200
The Eagles offense has been good enough to start 4-0 this season but has often looked sluggish in the passing game. Jalen Hurts had his best passing numbers on the season in Week 4, eclipsing the 300-yard mark, but Dallas Goedert was still nowhere to be found.
Goedert has totaled just 88 yards on 13 receptions through Week 4 after tallying over 700 yards in 12 games in 2023. He earned a respectable seven receptions in both Week 2 and Week 3 but still could not reach double-digit PPR points.
It’s tough to find fantasy excitement at the tight end position once you scroll down from the top three or four options. Goedert has far more talent than his recent production and could be poised for a breakout at this bargain value.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Week 3 NFL DFS QB Picks Breakdown: Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts Stand Out
NFL DFS Week 4 DraftKings Main Slate Look Ahead: Early Values in Our Projections
Rams-49ers Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Monday Night Football
NFL DFS Picks: Using FantasyLabs Leverage Scores to Find One-Off Plays in Week 5
