Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football. Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Jalen Hurts, QB (Philadelphia Eagles) Week 3 DraftKings Price $7,600; Week 4 DraftKings Price $8,200
Maybe the biggest surprise so far of 2022, Hurts is showing out for the undefeated Eagles. His DraftKings price has jumped each week to a new high of $8,200 — that has surpassed Patrick Mahomes and lands a tick below Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
Through three weeks, Hurts has a +23.86 Plus/Minus (+7.07 average) and is averaging over 12 rushes a game to give him one of the highest floors at the position. The doubts were largely over his arm rather than his legs, but he has impressed through the air by averaging over 300 yards per game with four passing touchdowns.
Eventually, Hurts will hit his head on a fantasy price ceiling, but maybe not this week as the Eagles have one of the highest implied totals on the slate against a feisty Jaguars defense.
Alexander Mattison, RB (Minnesota Vikings) Week 3 DraftKings Price $5,700; Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,700
Dalvin Cook dislocated his shoulder in the fourth quarter of the Vikings’ come-from-behind win against the Lions last week. Reports indicate he is recovering well but is still in doubt to play on Sunday morning in London against the Saints.
If Cook is out, Mattison will be a popular play for fantasy owners with high upside. Since the start of 2021, Mattison has seen double-digit touches in four games. He has scored over 16 DraftKings points in each of those games, including point totals of 26.1 and 30.3.
Be sure to check the injury reports leading up to Sunday, but Mattison is a high-ownership value play if Cook is ruled out if you’re playing the Thursday-Monday slate.
Marquise Brown, WR (Arizona Cardinals) Week 3 DraftKings Price $6,000; Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,900
Earning 17 targets in a game will raise any pass catcher’s stock pretty quickly. Brown caught 14 of those balls for 140 yards as the Cardinals tried to keep up with the Rams last Sunday, to no avail.
Brown is tied at fourth in the league with 35 targets on the year, but his longest reception has gone for just 26 yards. Expect a slower-paced game against the Panthers this week that could mean a lower target total for Brown.
His price may be soaring too high, too fast for the lack of big plays and touchdowns, despite his massive target share.
Mark Andrews, TE (Baltimore Ravens) Week 3 DraftKings Price $6,900; Week 4 DraftKings Price $7,100
Another week or two of this production and Andrews will likely overtake Travis Kelce as the most expensive tight end in DraftKings salary. The Ravens star has back-to-back weeks of 28+ fantasy points with the dynamic Lamar Jackson targeting him 11 and 13 times.
Andrews leads tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and targets in 2022. He is getting an astounding 36.5% target share and already has 12 catches of 10+ yards.
With a massive difference between the top-tier tight ends and everyone else, paying up for Andrews makes sense for a lot of fantasy lineups looking to gain an advantage at the position.
He is a strong play against the Bills in a potential shootout.
Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Justin Fields, QB (Chicago Bears) Week 3 DraftKings Price $5,600; Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,300
The Ohio State product has led the Bears to a surprising 2-1 record, but that has not led to fantasy success. Through three weeks, Fields has yet to top eight completions or 125 passing yards in a game.
He still may have potential as a dual-threat quarterback, but the offense needs to open up for him to have more opportunities to shine. His four interceptions on the season in just 45 pass attempts may be the reason for conservative play calling.
With David Montgomery banged up, expect the Bears to throw a bit more this week against the Giants. At some point this season, Fields will become a bargain. Wait until you see some signs of offensive improvement in Chicago before taking a shot on Fields in your lineups.
Austin Ekeler, RB (Los Angeles Chargers) Week 3 DraftKings Price $8,000; Week 4 DraftKings Price $7,700
The Chargers laid an egg against the Jaguars last week with Justin Herbert still recovering from the hits he took in week two. Ekeler garnered just four carries for five yards but caught all eight of his targets for 48 yards.
Ekeler ascended to a top-end fantasy running back in 2021 largely on the back of his 20 total touchdowns. He is still looking for the end zone through three weeks in 2022.
The touches are still there for Ekeler, who is averaging 18 opportunities per game. Expect positive touchdown regression soon and a return to his top-end fantasy totals.
He is a buy this week at his discount rate against the Texans who have given up the highest Plus/Minus to opposing running backs this season.
DJ Moore, WR (Carolina Panthers) Week 3 DraftKings Price $5,600; Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,300
Few wide receivers in the NFL have the talent potential of Moore, but the results just have not lived up to that potential so far in 2022.
Moore has six targets from new signal-caller Baker Mayfield in each of the first three weeks for a total of seven catches for 88 yards and a score. Those numbers are far off from his three-straight 1,100-yard seasons and career-high 163 targets in 2021.
Optimistic fantasy players may believe Moore just needs a few more weeks with Mayfield to click things into gear. The Panthers are home favorites this week with a decent implied point total.
Maybe this is the squeaky wheel game Moore needs to get back on track.
Dawson Knox, TE (Buffalo Bills) Week 3 DraftKings Price $4,100; Week 4 DraftKings Price $3,800
Expectations were high for Knox to take a step forward in the Buffalo passing game this season, but that hope has not come true thus far in 2022.
Knox has nine catches for 71 yards and no touchdowns this season. Even with Josh Allen averaging more than 30 completions and 330 yards passing a game, Knox has been minimally involved as the wide receivers garner higher target shares.
The tight end landscape is pretty barren so Knox still may be a potential cheaper lineup play as a weekly dart throw. Baltimore traditionally is weak against the tight ends and their defense is giving up over 350 passing yards a game.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Understanding Ceiling Projections for NFL DFS Tournaments
NFL DFS Trenches Report: Which Lines Have an Advantage in Week 1?
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs
Steelers-Browns Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
