Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football (NFL DFS). Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Jayden Daniels, QB (Washington Commanders) Week 3 DraftKings Price $6,000; Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,500
The Commanders new signal caller posted one of the best rookie quarterback performances of recent memory on Monday night in a surprise primetime win over the Bengals. Jayden Daniels completed 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and two passing scores. He added another touchdown and 39 rushing yards.
Through three weeks, Daniels leads the NFL with an 80.3% completion rate and has yet to throw an interception. His fantasy floor is incredibly high on a weekly basis with at least 10 rushing attempts in each game. He finally connected with Terry McLaurin in week 3 in the end zone and will quickly ascend into elite fantasy territory if he can continue to produce scoring throws.
Daniels sits second in quarterback fantasy points behind Josh Allen. His price tag will only rise if he continues to produce at this level.
Jordan Mason, RB (San Francisco 49ers) Week 3 DraftKings Price $6,200; Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,700
With the news that Christian McCaffrey could miss at least the first half of the 2024 season, Jordan Mason should be the lead back for the 49ers for at least the next month. He has earned at least 21 touches in every game this season and has amassed at least 88 all-purpose yards.
Mason was held out of the end zone against the Rams but still managed double-digit fantasy numbers in his lowest fantasy scoring week of the season. With injuries to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, Mason should continue to see an increased workload against New England.
Despite missing some offensive firepower, the 49ers are still expected to win comfortably over the Patriots this Sunday. The game script could tilt toward a lot of rushing attempts for Mason in the second half to work the clock.
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Rome Odunze, WR (Chicago Bears) Week 3 DraftKings Price $4,200; Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,200
Finally, there is some life in the passing offense for the Chicago Bears and their rookie duo of Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. Odunze was targeted 11 times on Sunday and caught six balls for 112 yards and his first NFL touchdown.
Williams put up a career-high 363 passing yards and his first two touchdowns but still did not look like a polished passer. That said, if the Bears cannot find a running game, volume will continue to support the Chicago pass catchers.
Odunze, Cole Kmet, and D.J. Moore each saw double-digit targets in the game, but Odunze grabbed the longest reception (47 yards) and the highest yards/catch (16.3). If Keenan Allen continues to miss time, Odunze should get some looks in lineups.
Cole Kmet, TE (Chicago Bears) Week 3 DraftKings Price $3,900; Week 4 DraftKings Price $4,400
Caleb Williams‘ passing volume also boosted the fantasy viability of veteran tight end Cole Kmet into lineup relevance. Kmet caught 10 passes on 11 targets for 97 yards and a score for his best fantasy output since Week 4 of 2023.
Kmet generally falls into the vast pool of non-elite tight end fantasy options. He pops up a few times a season with strong fantasy games but has yet to provide consistent high-end performances. Without Keenan Allen, Kmet is the primary target for Williams over the middle of the field. When Allen comes back, be wary of Kmet falling back into the tight end peloton.
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Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Justin Herbert, QB (Los Angeles Chargers) Week 3 DraftKings Price $5,700; Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,500
Justin Herbert left the game due to a foot injury against the Steelers, but his fantasy outlook under new head coach Jim Harbaugh has a lot of fantasy players worried. He has yet to crack the top 20 in weekly quarterback fantasy finishes through the first three weeks.
Undoubtedly, Herbert has proven he can be a prolific passer through his first four seasons in the league. He’s averaged at least 241 passing yards/game each season and peaked at 294.9 Y/G in 2021. Thus far, through three games, Herbert is sitting at 133 Y/G with four touchdowns and a total of 22 rushing yards.
The run-first philosophy of Harbaugh has led to lots of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards carries, despite former first-round receiver Quentin Johnston showing signs of life with three touchdowns already this season. If Herbert is active this week, he will likely be limited against a strong Chiefs defense. He should be left out of lineups until the passing game returns to the Chargers’ offensive plans.
Javonte Williams, RB (Denver Broncos) Week 3 DraftKings Price $5,400; Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,200
Offseason reports hinted toward a huge role for Javonte Williams in this Denver offense, but those expectations have yet to come close to fruition. Through three games, Williams is averaging just 8.0 rushing attempts per game and 2.2 yards/attempt.
Over the last two games, Williams has rushes for 14 and 11 yards. In his other 14 carries, he’s totaled four yards. He simply is not earning enough opportunities to be fantasy-relevant, and former Ravens running back Tyler Badie impressed against the Buccaneers with 70 yards on nine rush attempts.
Until Williams shows some life in the Broncos offense, he should be left out of fantasy lineups. Badie may be the Denver running back to take a shot on this week against the Jets.
Michael Pittman, WR (Indianapolis Colts) Week 3 DraftKings Price $6,100; Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,800
Michael Pittman posted the best season of his career in 2023 with 109 catches for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns. Through three games in 2024, he has just 11 catches for 88 yards. The talent has not waned for Pittman, but the arm throwing him passes does not seem to be able to connect with him.
Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson is last in the NFL with a 49.3% completion rate and has yet to complete over half of his attempts in a single game this season. More worrisome, his offensive line is rated as one of the best pass-blocking groups in the league, which underscores the struggle Richardson has had with accuracy in a relatively clean pocket.
Jonathan Taylor was the most successful part of the Colts offense on Sunday against the Bears. Indianapolis will need to lean on the run game until Richardson can figure out how to get the ball to Pittman and his other playmakers down the field.
This could be a buy low opportunity for Pittman, but it’s hard to have any confidence in his production without confidence in Richardson improving as a passer.
Travis Kelce, TE (Kansas City Chiefs) Week 3 DraftKings Price $6,100; Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,800
Could this be the beginning of the end for Travis Kelce being an elite fantasy tight end option? Or is this is a great value opportunity to get Kelce into lineups before his price shoots back up?
The usage for Kelce through three weeks is fairly astounding given the rapport he has with Patrick Mahomes. Kelce has just eight catches for 69 yards and zero scores this season. He averages 5.6 catches per game over his career and has managed just 2.7 this season.
The Chiefs continue to roll on the scoreboard with a 3-0 start, but they have yet to look like the team that won their second Super Bowl in a row this past February. Andy Reid will likely find ways to get Kelce more involved this week against the Chargers. Without many other tight ends producing high-end results this season, Kelce could easily regain his top billing with a strong performance in Week 4.
