Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football (NFL DFS). Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Anthony Richardson, QB (Indianapolis Colts) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,300; Week 2 DraftKings Price $6,800
With the majority of quarterbacks struggling for fantasy points in the opening week, Anthony Richardson stands out as a definite riser in expectations. Richardson completed only nine total passes on 19 attempts but still amassed 27.08 DraftKings points with three total touchdowns.
Richardson’s dual-threat ability and high yards/attempt give him a massive weekly ceiling. In Week 1, he threw for 212 passing yards with a pair of scores and added 56 rushing yards with another end-zone trip.
He completed just 47.4% of his passes with a low volume, but his deep throw potency is perfectly matched with wideouts Michael Pittman Jr., Alex Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, and Ashton Dulin, who caught a 54-yard touchdown.
If Richardson can stay healthy, he is a great fantasy option this week to reach the end zone on the ground. He has five rushing touchdowns over five career NFL starts.
Brian Robinson, RB (Washington Commanders) Week 1 DraftKings Price $5,200; Week 2 DraftKings Price $5,800
The Commanders are excited about their rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, but fantasy owners also gained clarity on the running game behind him on Sunday. Brian Robinson earned 12 of the 14 running back carries for Washington, totaling 40 yards and a score. He added three catches for 49 yards for a strong fantasy day.
Most analysts expected a timeshare between Robinson and newcomer Austin Ekeler, but the former Chargers star only managed a pair of rushing attempts and four receptions. Daniels relied on his feet in his debut with 16 carries to lead the team, but expect that to re-balance toward more backfield opportunities as he settles in.
Robinson averages 4.0 yards/attempt in his career. If he can manage to replicate that production with the same workload, he should be a regular bargain option in lineups. Daniels favored the dump off when he did release the ball and Robinson should be a prime target for those passes.
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Jameson Williams, WR (Detroit Lions) Week 1 DraftKings Price $4,400; Week 2 DraftKings Price $5,300
The Detroit Lions have been waiting for their former first-round draft pick to return that investment on the field. Jameson Williams paid dividends in week one with five catches on nine targets for 121 yards and a score.
Williams dominated the passing attack for Detroit as Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown were held to 58 total receiving yards. As one of the fastest players in the NFL, Williams has a career 17.2 yards/reception and bettered that on Sunday with a 24.2 rate.
This certainly could be a one-week fluke, but if Williams can maintain a high target share, he could be a fantasy monster. The nine targets he had in Week 1 were two more than he saw in any of his previous 18 NFL games. It seems unlikely that Jared Goff can support three top fantasy pass-catchers. The next few weeks will prove whether Williams can continue to produce as St. Brown and LaPorta earn more opportunities.
Isaiah Likely, TE (Baltimore Ravens) Week 1 DraftKings Price $3,300; Week 2 DraftKings Price $4,800
What other option is there for tight end risers after a week of fantasy pain at the position? Isaiah Likely has always been a reliable option when Mark Andrews misses time, but he surprisingly produced a massive game on opening night with Andrews sharing the field.
Likely saw a team-high 12 targets and caught nine balls for 111 yards and a touchdown. Andrews earned just two targets and caught both for 14 yards.
Lamar Jackson has always favored throwing the ball to the tight end position. With 14 total tight end targets, it’s possible both Likely and Andrews will have fantasy value. Expect Andrews to outscore him in most weeks, but Likely still may provide fantasy returns at his price tag.
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Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Trevor Lawrence, QB (Jacksonville Jaguars) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,200; Week 2 DraftKings Price $5,700
Nearly half of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL took price hits going into the second week of games after a historically bad passing week. Trevor Lawrence tops the list with a $500 drop after a subpar opener in Miami.
Lawrence completed 12 of 21 passes for 162 yards and one touchdown. Now, in his fourth season in Jacksonville, he will eventually overstay his welcome unless he can make strides to live up to the sky-high expectations from his draft stock. Since the start of last season, Lawrence has only produced three positive Plus/Minus games.
Until something changes, Lawrence is a difficult buy even with the lower price tag. His veteran wide receiver corps of Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk does not provide much excitement. It may take rookie Brian Thomas Jr. to step up as the team’s No. 1 target to spice up this stale passing attack.
Aaron Jones, RB (Minnesota Vikings) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,500; Week 2 DraftKings Price $6,100
The price drop for Aaron Jones is largely due to this week’s matchup against San Francisco. Despite the difficult matchup, Jones and the Vikings offense showed a lot of life in week one against a much weaker Giants defense.
Transitioning between rivals from Green Bay to Minnesota, Jones is out to prove something this season and got off to a strong start with 94 rushing yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. He added a couple of catches for 15 yards as Sam Darnold impressed in his first Vikings start.
Ty Chandler is a suitable change-of-pace back, but Jones is clearly the bell cow in this offense. A price drop after strong production should support a strong buy signal for fantasy players in week two.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (Arizona Cardinals) Week 1 DraftKings Price $7,200; Week 2 DraftKings Price $6,900
Well, that wasn’t the rookie debut that Marvin Harrison Jr. wanted. He managed just a single catch for four yards on three targets. Kyler Murray certainly missed him on some long pass opportunities, but expect a lot of overreaction in the fantasy realm on the Cardinals wideout.
Harrison Jr. is a prolific wide receiver talent coming out of Ohio State. Greg Dortch, the leading receiver for the Cardinals in week one, has nowhere near that same pedigree. Eventually, Harrison Jr. will be the alpha receiver in Arizona, and Murray played well in week one.
It could take a few weeks for Harrison Jr. to get his feet under him in the NFL, but every price drop provides an interesting buying opportunity with his potential.
Travis Kelce, TE (Kansas City Chiefs) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,600; Week 2 DraftKings Price $6,200
Paying up for Travis Kelce comes with high expectations. Despite a Chiefs victory on opening night, he did not come through for fantasy players with just three catches and 34 yards. Backup tight end Noah Gray matched him with three grabs for 37 yards.
Rashee Rice dominated target share from Patrick Mahomes on Thursday with seven catches and 103 yards. Rookie speedster Xavier Worthy caught two balls for 47 yards and a score. The steady middle-of-field targets for Kelce did not seem to exist against the Ravens.
With every big-time tight end option struggling in Week 1, Kelce’s rough opener may be swept under the rug. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs offense develops this season, with two talented young receiving options continuing to grow alongside the NFL’s best quarterback.
