Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football. Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Justin Herbert, QB (Los Angeles Chargers) Week 11 DraftKings Price $6,000; Week 12 DraftKings Price $7,000
After finishing second in fantasy points per game last year at the quarterback position, Herbert has struggled to repeat his breakout campaign. The 24-year-old has the lowest QBR and yards per attempt in 2022 of his three NFL seasons.
The $1,000 jump in price is largely due to the matchup with the aimless Arizona Cardinals that just allowed the 49ers to put up 38 points. Herbert has not topped 21 DraftKings points in the last six games.
He could certainly have a strong performance in Arizona, but the risk/reward ratio of his new price level may be a bit tilted toward the risky end.
Rachaad White, RB (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Week 11 DraftKings Price $4,800; Week 12 DraftKings Price $5,100
Could White be turning into the primary tailback in Tampa Bay?
Last week, he certainly looked like it with a season-high 22 carries for 105 yards against the Seahawks. Unfortunately, he could not add any receptions or touchdowns to produce explosive fantasy numbers.
For a low-end running back, White has a ton of upside this week against the Browns who give up +2.5 Opponent Plus/Minus to running backs. If touches continue to lean his way, his price tag will surely start rising quickly.
Josh Palmer, WR (Los Angeles Chargers) Week 11 DraftKings Price $5,100; Week 12 DraftKings Price $5,400
The Chargers simply cannot keep their pass catchers healthy. With a slew of injuries that includes Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett, Palmer has emerged as a primary option for Justin Herbert.
He caught 8 balls for 106 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday against Kansas City. Over his past four games, he is averaging seven catches and 10 targets.
Until Allen and Williams are back at 100%, Palmer will continue to see an expanded role. He is a value pick this week against the Cardinals.
George Kittle, TE (San Francisco 49ers) Week 11 DraftKings Price $4,900; Week 12 DraftKings Price $5,300
With the lowest salary of the top-tier tight ends, Kittle is coming off his best performance of the season. He caught four passes for 84 yards and two touchdowns on Monday night against Arizona.
He has fallen a bit into a touchdown-or-bust candidate this season with all but one of his double-digit fantasy performances including a score.
The matchup is difficult this week with the Saints allowing a -3.3 Opponent Plus/Minus for tight ends. The 49ers offense is starting to find its groove and Kittle seems to be a primary beneficiary of its increased scoring potential.
Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Kirk Cousins, QB (Minnesota Vikings) Week 11 DraftKings Price $6,100; Week 12 DraftKings Price $5,600
Cousins and the Vikings laid an egg on Sunday at home against the Cowboys. In by far his worst performance of the season, Cousins threw for just 105 yards and was sacked seven times.
One of the most consistent middle-tier fantasy producers, he failed to throw a touchdown pass on Sunday for the first time in the last 40 games.
He faces a tough Patriots defense this Sunday that will be focused on stopping Justin Jefferson as the most explosive weapon on the Vikings offense. He still has more upside than the other quarterbacks in a similar price range, such as Marcus Mariota and Jimmy Garoppolo if you’re playing the Thursday-Monday slate.
AJ Dillon, RB (Green Bay Packers) Week 11 DraftKings Price $5,700; Week 12 DraftKings Price $5,200
High expectations have not come to fruition for Dillon this season. The Packers are no longer a high-powered offense, and he has been relegated to a backup role with the success of Aaron Jones instead of “1B”.
Dillon has not scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 1 where he tallied his only touchdown of the season. Despite receiving a consistent 10-14 touches a game, his upside is capped with just four red zone opportunities in the last seven games.
Don’t be fooled into a value buy with Dillon’s price decline. He needs to prove he can be a productive fantasy option in his backup role before being trusted again.
Adam Thielen, WR (Minnesota Vikings) Week 11 DraftKings Price $5,500; Week 12 DraftKings Price $4,900
The veteran wideout has yet to excite fantasy owners this season. Aside from the complete Vikings’ offensive meltdown last week against the Cowboys, Thielen has seen a consistent seven to nine targets each week with little to show for it.
He has just two touchdowns on the season after two double-digit scoring seasons in a row. The addition of TJ Hockensen adds another red zone threat and over-the-middle option to the offense to compete for targets.
Thielen has four-straight negative Plus/Minus performances and faces a difficult Patriots defense this week. It’s probably best to keep him out of your lineup if you’re playing the Thursday-Monday slate.
David Njoku, TE (Cleveland Browns) Week 11 DraftKings Price $3,900; Week 12 DraftKings Price $3,600
Njoku returned to the lineup on Sunday against the Bills but did not return to fantasy viability. He caught two receptions on three targets for 17 yards.
The five weeks prior to his ankle injury, Njoku received at least six targets in each game and produced five straight positive Plus/Minus results.
He may be a value play this week against Tampa Bay if you are foregoing the elite tier at the tight end position.
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