Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football (NFL DFS). Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
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Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Dak Prescott, QB (Dallas Cowboys) Week 10 DraftKings Price $6,700; Week 11 DraftKings Price $7,300
Through nine games, Dak Prescott is quietly having perhaps the best statistical season of his career. He has a career-high 105.1 QB Rating and 70.7% completion rate with a 17-6 touchdown to interception ratio.
Over the last four games, Prescott has been the best fantasy quarterback in the game, with top-three finishes at the position each week. He’s thrown for over 300 yards with at least four total touchdowns each of the last three games.
The price tag has steadily climbed over the last month for Prescott, but at $7,300, it is still not high enough for his recent production. Could this be a special year for the Cowboys quarterback? All systems go for Prescott this week against the lowly Carolina Panthers.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB (Detroit Lions) Week 10 DraftKings Price $5,400; Week 11 DraftKings Price $5,800
At this point in the season, the fantasy point totals begin to provide a clearer picture. Brian Robinson Jr.‘s comeback story has landed him in the top six of PPR running back point totals.
Robinson Jr. is averaging 14.2 PPR points per game with a floor of 7.0 points and two boom games of 27.7 and 28.9 points that led all running backs in scoring on those weeks.
At 20th on the running back salary chart, Robinson Jr. is an excellent weekly value play in this Commanders offense sparked by Sam Howell. They face a Giants defense this week that gave up 49 points to Dallas in their last outing.
CeeDee Lamb, WR (Dallas Cowboys) Week 10 DraftKings Price $8,500; Week 11 DraftKings Price $9,200
Dak Prescott‘s rise over the last month is largely attributed to the success of CeeDee Lamb in the passing game.
Since the Week 7 bye week, Lamb has earned a serious uptick in workload. He has averaged nearly 15 targets per game in the last three weeks with 34 total catches. He has at least 150 receiving yards in each of the last three games, with four total touchdowns and three straight top-2 PPR finishes at the position.
Lamb has ascended to a clear top receiving option in the NFL and in the salary charts. With the Panthers up next in the Cowboys’ sights, Lamb should continue to see elite target opportunities.
Trey McBride, TE (Arizona Cardinals) Week 10 DraftKings Price $3,500; Week 11 DraftKings Price $4,400
Could last week’s production be the new normal for Trey McBride with Kyler Murray back under center?
McBride caught eight of nine targets for 131 yards against the Falcons last week. His 16.4 yards per reception is McBride’s highest of his career. Aside from an outlier 14-target game in Week 8, McBride has not topped six targets in any other game this season.
The Cardinals’ offensive outlook is night and day with Murray compared to rookie Clayton Tune. McBride got a healthy price bump off his massive game, but he is still well below the top-end tight end options on the slate. This could still be a buying opportunity if you believe the workload will continue.
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Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Lamar Jackson, QB (Baltimore Ravens) Week 10 DraftKings Price $8,000; Week 11 DraftKings Price $7,900
Lamar Jackson remains the best dual-threat quarterback in the NFL, but fantasy owners have not seen his cheat code upside over the last three weeks. Jackson has just two total touchdowns in that stretch with two games under 200 passing yards.
Despite a lack of fantasy output for Jackson, the Ravens’ offense has chugged along to 30+ points in each of the last three games. That scoring has gone primarily to the running backs. Even with J.K. Dobbins going down to a season-ending injury, Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell have thrived in this offense with eight total touchdowns in that three-game span.
Jackson is still the director of the offense, but Baltimore’s recent success has come without the ball in his hands. Expect another hard-hitting AFC North clash this weekend against the Bengals.
Tony Pollard, RB (Dallas Cowboys) Week 10 DraftKings Price $7,300; Week 11 DraftKings Price $6,600
With Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb earning price hikes and the Dallas offense destroying opponents, it’s notable that Tony Pollard continues to disappoint in the lead-back role.
Since the bye week, Pollard’s carries and rushing totals have been consistently mediocre. He has at least 12 carries with 50-55 rushing yards in each game. The Cowboys have scored 120 total points over the last three weeks; Pollard has scored zero.
The lead running back in Dallas has historically been a highly relevant fantasy role with Ezekiel Elliott. Thus far, Pollard has not lived up to that expectation, and it’s difficult to trust him moving forward with the lack of production in big scoring games for the Cowboys.
Christian Watson, WR (Green Bay Packers) Week 10 DraftKings Price $4,900; Week 11 DraftKings Price $4,600
The Jordan Love experiment has largely failed this season in Green Bay, and Christian Watson has been a primary victim of the lack of consistent quarterback play.
Watson had an incredible seven touchdowns in a four-game span with Aaron Rodgers during his rookie campaign last season. In six games so far in 2023, Watson has just one score and five games with less than 40 yards receiving.
With home run speed, Watson’s athletic ability makes him one of the most explosive deep ball receivers in the league. That potential has turned into four-straight games outside the top-50 of PPR wide receivers.
Evan Engram, TE (Jacksonville Jaguars) Week 10 DraftKings Price $4,500; Week 11 DraftKings Price $4,300
The Jaguars met a buzzsaw last week against an angry 49ers team coming off a rare losing streak. Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense managed just three points on the day, and Evan Engram totaled just 12 receiving yards on four catches.
On the positive side, Engram continues to earn consistent targets. He has at least seven targets in each of the last eight games. Unfortunately, his production on those targets has not led to fantasy stardom. He finished in the top 10 of PPR tight ends in six games but has yet to crack the to five.
Engram’s upside is largely capped by a lack of red-zone opportunities. He has yet to score in 2023 after just four touchdowns last season. He is a high floor option for lineups but does not provide lottery ticket upside potential.
