Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football (NFL DFS). Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Drake Maye, QB (New England Patriots) Week 9 DraftKings Price $5,500; Week 10 DraftKings Price $5,800
The Patriots’ rookie quarterback topped 40 passing attempts for the first time in his short career last Sunday against the Titans. He amassed just 206 passing yards and a score to go with a pair of interceptions. That said, he has shown signs of improvement over the last few games and almost pulled out a comeback victory using his legs.
Drake Maye has three positive Plus/Minus results over the last four weeks and now reaches his highest DraftKings salary of the season. The fantasy optimism comes after he added 95 yards on the ground running away from the Titans defense. With 38 and 46 rushing yards in other games this season, his ground game certainly boosts his fantasy floor.
The Patriots face the most difficult matchup for fantasy quarterbacks this week in the Chicago Bears defense. With an over/under under 40 points, this may not be the week to jump on board the Maye train with a price hike on top.
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DeVonta Smith, WR (Philadelphia Eagles) Week 9 DraftKings Price $6,800; Week 10 DraftKings Price $7,800
The Eagles wideout has two straight games with at least 80 receiving yards and a touchdown for the first time this season. A rough start to the season for the Eagles has righted itself into a 6-2 record and playoff expectations once again.
DeVonta Smith has yet to showcase high-end fantasy production in 2024 without a single top-10 fantasy week, but he has shown consistency over their four-game win streak with three top-20 weekly finishes at the position. In each of those games, he has caught a 45 or 46-yard pass to boost his yardage totals.
With only one red-zone target in his last five games, Smith needs deep pass opportunities to pay off for fantasy owners, but the Cowboys should provide plenty of those targets this week as they continue to reel from a disappointing start to the season.
Cade Otton, TE (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Week 9 DraftKings Price $4,500; Week 10 DraftKings Price $5,500
All of a sudden, Cade Otton has turned into possibly the most consistent tight-end fantasy option in the league. He has three straight games with at least 10 targets and has caught 25 of those passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns.
Baker Mayfield continues to air the ball out with over 300 passing yards in three of the Buccaneers’ last four games. Otton earned a season-high 35% of those targets last week and has at least one red zone target in every game since Week 2.
The 49ers are in the top 10 of defenses against tight ends on the season, but it’s hard to find tight end options on the slate with higher consistency or upside than Otton.
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Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Kyler Murray, QB (Arizona Cardinals) Week 9 DraftKings Price $6,600; Week 10 DraftKings Price $6,300
A rough fantasy outing for Kyler Murray against the Bears last week still produced a convincing Cardinals victory. The Arizona signal caller finished 13-20 for just 154 passing yards and zero touchdowns.
Murray ran for just six yards, his second-lowest total of the season, to finish 30th in quarterback fantasy points on the week. He has at least 45 rushing yards in five games this season to boost his fantasy floor and had at least one passing touchdown in every game this season until the Bears matchup.
This could be an interesting buying opportunity on the price drop going into a Week 10 matchup against the Jets. New York boasts a strong defense, but Murray has put together top-10 fantasy weeks against other difficult defenses in the 49ers and Chargers already this season.
Tank Bigsby, RB (Cleveland Browns) Week 9 DraftKings Price $6,200; Week 10 DraftKings Price $5,700
It looked like Tank Bigsby may be taking over the lion’s share of opportunities in the Jaguars backfield until he reverted back to a secondary role this past Sunday with just eight touches. He rushed for just 22 yards on eight carries and didn’t record a catch.
The Jaguars face a stout Minnesota Vikings defense this Sunday that bottled up Jonathan Taylor last week. Bigsby’s snap rate retreated to 52% last week after earning about two-thirds of the snaps in each of the previous two games.
When given the opportunity, Bigsby has produced great results. He sits at 5.5 yards/carry on the season but has scored in just two games. Stay away from him in this matchup with Minnesota, but a second price discount could present a great buy-low strategy in future weeks.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (Arizona Cardinals) Week 9 DraftKings Price $6,900; Week 10 DraftKings Price $6,400
The Ohio State alum has had an up-and-down season with two top-5 fantasy weekly performances balanced by six weeks outside the top 20. Kyler Murray forced red zone targets to Marvin Harrison Jr. early in the season but has looked elsewhere over the past five games without a single red zone throw to Harrison Jr. in that span.
The talented rookie seems to be searching for his footing in the NFL and has yet to prove he can get the separation that came so easy for him in college. Harrison Jr. could break out at any point, but it’s unlikely to happen this week against a Jets defense allowing the fifth-lowest fantasy points to wide receivers.
Zach Ertz, TE (Washington Commanders) Week 9 DraftKings Price $4,300; Week 10 DraftKings Price $3,800
The last two weeks for Zach Ertz are a wonderful reminder that chasing targets for mid-level tight ends is often a losing game. Ertz tallied seven catches on 11 targets in Week 8 against the Bears, then followed that up with just one catch for five yards last week in the Commanders’ victory over the Giants.
With his snap rate falling to 48%, Ertz is nowhere near as exciting a lineup proposition as he was with a snap rate closer to 80%. His hands may still be solid, but his explosiveness is limited at this point in his 11-year career. Ertz may be worth a look at a cheaper rate, but it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in his production with the up-and-down target rate.
