Wednesday’s slate is of particular interest as several of the involved teams have shaken up their rosters as they head into the DreamHack Masters spring tournament. New players in new locations make long-term team-level stats a little less reliable and could catch many DFS players off-guard if they are not paying close attention. Let’s first get into the specifics.
CS:GO DFS Notes for Wednesday, May 20
- Earlier this week, Astralis announced that gla1ve is leaving the team on a medical leave of absence, which vaulted JUGi onto the active roster after the ex-North fragger signed with the team on May 11th. In JUGi’s first match with the team on Tuesday, he logged a team-low 32 kills and was the only member of Astralis to log more deaths than kills against Heroic. Before taking his leave of absence, gla1ve ranked last on the team in kill share, so JUGi’s addition doesn’t necessarily open up extra kill share for the other Astralis members. Interestingly enough, JUGi’s $6,600 salary is $200 more than dupreeh’s $6,400 cost, which seems strange given dupreeh’s long-term kill share is third-highest on the team.
- On Tuesday afternoon, MIBR announced they are “benching” meyern, who had been with the team since December. During the Road to Rio competition, MIBR was swept by both FURIA and Liquid, perhaps prompting the change. Meyern had accounted for only 18% of MIBR’s kills heading into DreamHack, a figure trk — who will take meyern’s place on the team — should be able to mostly account for after trk averaged 0.72 kills per round as a member of Team One.
- North played its first match with Kristou on Tuesday in a 2-1 upset victory over G2. Kristou is replacing Kjaerbye, who is also on medical leave and away from the team. Prior to yesterday’s match, Jumpy — the team’s coach — had been serving as a temporary fill-in over the previous three games, making North a difficult team to project in Wednesday’s match. North is listed as a +315 dog to Astralis, but with so much recent change on both teams, perhaps we shouldn’t be quick to write off North entirely. After all, they were listed +290 heading into their upset of G2.
Given all the recent movement, long-term data is not as useful and we may see some strange results on Wednesday. If you are of the same belief, this will be the perfect opportunity to try out our Range of Outcomes tool. By adjusting the Range of Outcomes setting in our Multi-Lineup tool, you will randomly adjust players’ projections up or down in each optimization run. This will build in more variance to your lineups and will in turn help make your lineups more unique in large field tournaments.
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