Based on implied probability, the Tennessee Titans’ fall from grace will continue on Thursday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys. The former AFC South leaders have dropped five straight, ceding the division lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, they head into tonight’s non-conference matchup against the Cowboys as steep 13-point home dogs, thanks to a rash of injuries and ineffective play.
Still, some wagers are worth considering as we delve into our last Thursday Night Football game of the season.
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As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Cowboys vs. Titans Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
CeeDee Lamb Under 73.5 Receiving Yards
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have been an unstoppable combination for the Cowboys this season. The duo has connected for 1,207 yards on 135 targets, putting Lamb among the elite wide receivers; however, we’ve seen a less imposing passing attack from Dallas when they play with the lead. Considering the 13-point spread, it would be wise to expect a diminished role from Lamb and the passing attack against the Titans.
The Cowboys have attempted 30 or more passing attempts in five straight, but four of those contests have been one-score games. Logically, it would follow that Dallas would play to its strengths, needing time, yards, and points to secure victory. But the Cowboys have deployed a different scheme when they play with the lead.
Prescott has attempted 29 or fewer passing attempts in four of the five games when the lead is out of reach. Further, we’ve seen diminished passing yards in those outings, with Prescott averaging 207.5 yards per game, well below his season average of 245.0.
Those metrics are negatively impacting Lamb’s contributions. The former first-round pick has recorded 77 or fewer receiving yards in all five contests, posting averages of 58.4 yards on 4.2 receptions.
The passing attack is an afterthought in blowout wins, with the Cowboys deferring to their running game to control the clock. That’s reflected in our projections tonight, with Lamb expected to stay beneath his 73.5 receiving yard prop.
Dalton Schultz Under 38.5 Receiving Yards
For many of the same reasons Lamb is expected to fall below his totals, Dalton Schultz‘s ceiling is limited by the Cowboys playing with the lead. There’s less of an emphasis on throwing the ball, turning things over to Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott in the running game instead. Consequently, Schultz will be hard-pressed to eclipse his modest prop.
The Cowboys’ tight end has taken on a secondary role on offense this year. The Stanford product has been targeted six or fewer times in five of his last six outings. Worse, he’s hauled in just 60.6% of those passes, contributing to his below-average 65.7% catch rate.
Predictably, his yardage is down with the fewer passes Schultz is corraling. He’s surpassed 33 receiving yards just twice over his six-game sample, with an average of 38.5 receiving yards per game.
This prop is bang on Schultz’s recent performances. Still, with fewer passes expected against the Titans and a possession-driven approach to the game planning, we’re expecting the tight end to fall below his prop. That aligns with our projections, supporting that the edge is on backing the under.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
It’s been an up-and-down season for Elliott. At times, the former All-Pro running back has played second fiddle to Pollard, although we’ve gotten more consistent efforts from Zeke over the past few weeks. With a focused rushing attack expected against the Titans, Elliott is expected to make it over his rushing yard prop.
Zeke has started the last three games for Dallas, accumulating at least 15 carries in each contest. And despite the increased workload, we’ve seen fewer yards per carry across that sample. Elliott is averaging 3.7 yards per rushing attempt in his last three games, below his season average of 4.1. Further, he’s fallen below 3.6 yards per carry in two of the three contests. That makes him a progression candidate as his per-carry totals work back up toward career norms.
That improved play could be facilitated by a Titans’ rushing defense struggling to contain opponents at home. Tennessee gives up an average of 100.3 rushing yards per game at home, above their season-long rating of 80.1. Further, they’ll see a heavy dose of rushing plays, exhausting their defense and leaving Elliott with an exploitable advantage as the game drags on.
This prop has moved to the top of the ScoreAndOdds probability chart ahead of kick-off. According to our algorithm, Zeke has a 76% chance of exceeding his total. That aligns with our analysis, which supports increased emphasis on the rushing attack, helping Elliott establish himself as one of the game’s top performers.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on Scores And Odds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
According to ScoresAndOdds, this three-leg wager should carry a +354 price tag. However, FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging a bettor-friendly +525 in their SameGame Parlay. We’re playing that advantage on Thursday Night Football in Week 17.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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