Wrapping up Week 3 is an NFC East division matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. The Cowboys have dominated this matchup of late, winning nine of their last 10 games against the Giants. They will look to Cooper Rush again to bring them some magic as he is 2-0 as a starter the past two seasons.
A surprising hot start has the Giants 2-0 for the first time since the 2016 season, and they have a chance to go 3-0 for the first time since 2009.
The total in this game may be one of the lowest we will see all year, but there are still some appealing props with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator that leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
Cowboys vs. Giants Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any given game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compared the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Saquon Barkley Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Giants elite running back Saquon Barkley is off to a great start as he leads the league with 118 rushing yards per game. After spending much of the 2020 and some of the 2021 season injured, Barkley’s success is a welcomed sight. His 6.1 yards per carry is a career-best thus far.
Not only is Barkley off to a great start running the ball, but he also has a 20.8% target share as he ranks third on the Giants in receiving yards and second in receptions. Getting the ball in Barkley’s hands has proved to be a recipe for success. He has 24 touches in back-to-back games, so expect heavy usage again tonight.
Looking at the bet suggestions, Barkley was the obvious first choice, as he is just a -128 favorite to get over this 23.5 receiving prop. With rookie Wan’Dale Robinson out and Kadarius Toney doubtful, expect Barkley to continue serving as one of Daniel Jones’ key targets in the passing game.
Ezekiel Elliott Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
From one running back to another, Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott has fallen off quite a bit over the past couple of seasons. The Giants ranked last in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA a season ago, but this prop line feels too high. Elliott has failed to reach 59 or more rushing yards in the first two games. He also hasn’t cracked 59 yards in 13 of his last 14 games, including one under against the Giants last season.
It is hard to say that Elliott is even the best running back on his own team. Tony Pollard has the Cowboys’ lone rushing touchdown this season and has recorded 50 or more rushing yards in each of his last three road games. After a career-best 2021 season, expect the Cowboys to get Pollard more involved.
Over the last four seasons, Elliott has averaged 53.8 rushing yards per game on the road compared to 62.3 per game at home. He also has 10 total touchdowns at home and only two on the road. For some reason, Pollard is way more involved on the road while Elliott takes a back seat. Ultimately, plenty of trends point towards Elliott not reaching this rushing prop line.
Giants and Cowboys Over 39.5 Points
Anytime a total points line is under 40 points in the NFL, bettors seem to have to do a double-take. Usually, the total makes sense, but this one looks a little off based on this matchup’s history. Over the last five years, the average points scored in this matchup is over 50 per game.
Another week with Cooper Rush getting first-team snaps can only benefit the backup quarterback. He put up 20 points in his previous two starts when Dak Prescott had to miss due to injury. Rush is a more than capable quarterback who may be getting Michael Gallup back from injury. Regardless if Gallup is in or not, the weapons are in place for him to succeed.
Despite the Cowboys dominating this matchup historically, the Giants are one-point home favorites. As I discussed earlier, Barkley is option one, two, and three of this Giants offense. If quarterback Daniel Jones can continue to find Richie James and Sterling Shepard downfield, this offense should be able to put up points on the Cowboys’ defense that may be missing their best pass-rusher in Micah Parsons. I wouldn’t expect a shootout, but this total feels too low.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Based on their simulations, the odds are +284, but FanDuel is offering +551. That’s a fair bit of value.
Happy sweating and good luck!
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