Ohio sports betting is live, and there’s no better place to make a Cowboys vs. Buccaneers same-game parlay than at FanDuel Sportsbook. We have picks — including player props — and a special Ohio sportsbook offer to get you started ahead of Monday Night Football.
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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Preview
Capping off Wild Card Weekend is an NFC clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys. This is a rematch from Week 1, where the Buccaneers won a 19-3 slugfest after Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered an injury. Both teams come into this game after very underwhelming performances in Week 18.
The Cowboys had a slim chance at the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC last week but looked far from playoff-ready in their 26-6 loss to the Commanders. Prescott threw an interception for the seventh consecutive game. Despite a pitiful loss last week, the Cowboys are still 2.5-point road favorites as they finished the season with a 12-5 record, fourth best in the NFC.
The Buccaneers held on to win the NFC South division despite finishing with a losing record. It was the first losing record in Tom Brady‘s illustrious career as a starter. His record against the Falcons also dropped to 11-1 after last week’s loss. However, he set the NFL record for completions for the second-straight season. Brady has yet to lose to the Cowboys with a 7-0 record, with two of those games coming as a Buccaneer. Can the great Tom Brady put together another playoff run?
As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Dak Prescott Under 16.5 Rushing Yards
Ever since Dak Prescott suffered his ankle injury in 2020, running the ball has been almost an afterthought. From 2016-2020, Prescott averaged 19.6 rushing yards per game. That total has decreased to 11.7 over the last two seasons. His rushing attempts also dipped from 3.9 to 3.3 per game, so Prescott is relying on his arm more than his legs.
Eclipsing 17 or more rushing yards has been a difficult endeavor for Prescott, who has only accomplished that feat in eight of his 29 games (27.6%) over the last two seasons. It shouldn’t be surprising that this was the best prop in the Parlay IQ tool at 72%. I would take this prop if it got bet down to 14.5 rushing yards, given how few yards he has picked up lately.
The Buccaneers have allowed only 3.8 rushing attempts per game to quarterbacks, which is tied for the 12th-lowest in the league. They are allowing 16.8 yards allowed, but that also ranks a little below average. Prescott will undoubtedly use his legs if he has to, but he has turned into a check-down and pass-first quarterback. Take this under with confidence.
Tony Pollard Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Sticking with the Cowboys, running back Tony Pollard is the second player prop in our parlay. It is difficult to look into last week with the Cowboys looking so bad, but from weeks 14-16, Pollard averaged 4.7 receptions on 6.0 targets per game. During that three-week stretch, he averaged 37.3 yards per game, well over his current prop.
The Buccaneers have been an above-average defense all season long despite having an 8-9 record. Their defense ranks 13th in rush DVOA and 15th in pass DVOA per FootballOutsiders. Getting Pollard involved in the offensive game plan will be critical to the Cowboys’ success, and his change of pace from Ezekiel Elliott makes this duo so effective.
After Elliott’s injury, which caused him to miss weeks 8-10, Pollard averaged 38.7 snaps to Elliott’s 34 per game from weeks 11-16. Pollard is much more involved in the aerial attack as his 9.9% target share ranks fifth on the team and is more than double Elliott’s. Pollard is averaging 23.2 receiving yards per game for the year, making this a solid prop to take.
Leonard Fournette Over 38.5 Rushing Yards
Another running back worth getting exposure to is the veteran Leonard Fournette. Even though rookie Rachaad White has made a name for himself in the second half of the season, Fournette is still a significant threat on the ground. This rushing yard prop of 38.5 feels a little too low for Fournette, who eclipsed that mark in four of his last six games.
Playoff Lenny is another factor on our side with this over prop. He has recorded 51+ rushing yards in each of his last eight postseason appearances. Not only that, but Fournette has scored a touchdown in seven-straight postseason games. When the tough yards need to be gained, the Buccaneers are more likely to rely on Fournette than the rookie.
In their first meeting this season, Fournette had 21 rushing attempts for 127 yards, averaging six yards per carry. It was his only game eclipsing 100 rushing yards. The Cowboys’ defense was much more susceptible against the run than the pass during the regular season. They allowed 200.6 passing yards (8th) and 129.3 rushing yards (22nd) per game. Fournette may be in a 60-40 timeshare with White, but he is healthy and will be relied upon in this Wild Card playoff game.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +300, while FanDuel is offering +537. That is exceptional value on this parlay!
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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