This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET on FOX, NFL Network and Amazon Prime. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
Over his past four games, Dak Prescott has thrown for at least 355 yards three times, failing to do so only against the Patriots’ top-ranked pass defense while putting up big totals against the Vikings (387) and Bills (355), both of whom are on par with the Bears among the league’s better pass defenses. On the flip side, he’s thrown for more than 278 yards in only one of six road games.
Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are neck-and-neck for the top projected floor, median and Projected Plus/Minus in our DraftKings Showdown Models, but despite the latter being more expensive, I’d lean toward Zeke over Dak in the Captain spot. The Bears will be without defensive tackle Akheim Hicks (elbow) and linebacker Danny Trevathan (elbow), their top-graded run defenders at their respective position groups, according to Pro Football Focus. With the Bears offense liable to struggle and wind expected to be a factor, Dak has greater odds of suffering from game script than Zeke, who may end up playing every snap with No. 2 back Tony Pollard (ankle) questionable.
With Zeke in the Captain spot, you can also fit Chicago starting QB Mitch FalseTrubisky and lead runner David Montgomery with $6,000 remaining, which is best used on Brett Maher and Blake Jarwin. Though Maher is on shaky ground after whiffing on both of his field goal attempts in last week’s loss to Buffalo, he’s still attempted multiple field goals for nine straight games and posted double-digit points in four of his last seven, while the Bears have allowed multiple field goal and extra-point tries in six of their last seven. Our models give Maher the top floor projection after Dak, Zeke, Trubisky and Montgomery. Jarwin is a punt play with a good matchup; he has caught multiple passes in each of his past four games, and the Bears rank 24th in DVOA versus tight ends.
On FanDuel, you have to fade either Trubisky or Montgomery if you want to get in Dak and Zeke. Trubisky is projected for 4.5 points more than Montgomery and is thus a better point-per-dollar value, so the best bet is to round out the lineup with Trubisky, Tarik Cohen, who has actually out-snapped Montgomery in each of the past four games, and Javon Wims, who has run a route on at least 88% of Bears dropbacks in each of the three games Taylor Gabriel (concussion, out) has missed.
Core GPP Plays
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