The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thanksgiving Eve features a 15-game feast starting at 7 p.m. ET:
Skaters
Studs
With the exception of the St. Louis Blues every NHL team is in play today. As far as high-end options, the pickings are aplenty:
Center
- Connor McDavid @ Detroit: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $9,200
- Steven Stamkos vs. Chicago: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $8,900
- Auston Matthews @ Florida: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,200
- Sidney Crosby vs. Vancouver: DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel – $8,400
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov vs. Chicago: DraftKings – $8,200, FanDuel – $9,200
- Alex Ovechkin vs. Ottawa: DraftKings – $ 7,500, FanDuel – $8,500
- Johnny Gaudreau @ Columbus: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $8,000
- Patrick Kane @ Tampa Bay: DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel – $8,300
Defense
- Brent Burns @ Arizona: DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $6,300
- Erik Karlsson @ Washington: DraftKings – $6,600, FanDuel – $7,100
- Victor Hedman vs. Chicago: DraftKings – $6,400, FanDuel – $6,400
- Kris Letang vs. Vancouver: DraftKings – $5,800, FanDuel – $6,500
Note: With five teams on a back-to-back and multiple key injuries, lineup changes and Vegas implications are likely to change as the day progresses. Follow along with us on twitter @FantasyLabsNHL.
When faced with a massive slate like today’s — covering all the zones with any effectiveness will be next to impossible — it’s imperative to take a stand i.e. correlating your lineups with a high upside stack.
There’s been few better pairings in 2017 with which to take a stand than Stamkos and Kucherov, who lead the NHL in points and have an absurd 0.76 correlation coefficient in our Models. The Lightning own today’s second-highest implied total (3.4 goals), and they host a Blackhawks team that has allowed 3.67 goals per game over its past four. The price is high, but the payoff could be huge: Kucherov and Stamkos lead the slate with 12 and 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, respectively.
If you’re fading the Tampa Bay studs, there are no shortage of alternative directions to pay up. Crosby (98 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating) and the Penguins, more than a little interesting on three days rest, are hosting a Canucks team on the back end of a back-to-back. Vancouver has allowed the ninth-most power play opportunities in the league and Pittsburgh has drawn the second-most penalties overall. The Penguins 22.9 percent power play success rate is fourth-highest, but at home, they’ve actually dipped to 11.8 percent, second-lowest in the NHL. It looks like they will also be without Evgeni Malkin (upper body), who leads the team in power play time on ice (TOI) and power play shots over the past month.
We’ve discussed Burns – and his inevitable positive regression – basically every week on NHL Inside the Lab, and in general, paying up for defensemen makes a lot of sense. He has yet to score a goal this year, but is this the day Burns finally flares up? The Sharks own the slate’s highest matchup expectation, going against the Coyotes, who have allowed the most goals in the league this year. Regardless, Burns’ floor is secure. He’s tied with Johnny Boychuk for a slate-leading 5.75 shots + blocks per game over the past month and remains one of the best peripheral options around which to build any team.
Values
Tim Heed (DraftKings – $4,000, FanDuel – $4,000): If Burns seems too pricey, Heed our advice: the Sharks’ power play stalwart remains a good option. Heed, a forward-turned-defenseman, plays on the Sharks’ first power-play line where he excels (97th percentile in power-play shots). Arizona has allowed the eighth-fewest power play opportunities in the league, but given his low price, Heed has a nice floor in the 90th percentile in shots+blocks over the past month.
Nick Bjugstad (DraftKings – $3,600, FanDuel – $3,800): Categorized as a winger on DraftKings and a center on FanDuel, Bjugstad ranks in the 93rd percentile in shots over the past month, leading all power play forwards under $4,000 on either site. It’s a premium shooting matchup against a Maple Leafs team that has allowed the fifth-highest Corsi-Against over the past month and who just lost at home to the Coyotes.
Jaccob Slavin (DraftKings – $4,000, FanDuel – $3,800): Slavin ranks the 97th percentile of shots + blocks over the past month, sixth-highest of any player in the slate. He’s clearly underpriced relative to his peripheral stats and role on the second power play unit. Implied for 3.3 goals at home against the Rangers, the Hurricanes own the highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the first power play unit of Carolina Hurricanes:
Since ownership tends to mirror Vegas lines, the Hurricanes may be slightly less owned just outside the top tier implied for 3.3 goals. That said, Carolina is in the perfect spot to pile up peripheral stats against a Rangers team that has the third-highest Corsi-Against in the league. Unsurprisingly, the Hurricanes have the highest Corsi-For of any team as their offense revolves more around shot volume than shot quality. Faulk stands out with 95th percentile shots+blocks stat line over the past month, and both Teravainen and Staal provide a high ceiling in the 90th percentile in goals over that same period.
With the highest implied total on the slate against a Montreal team allowing the third-most goals the Predators onslaught is firmly in play on DraftKings:
With this stack, you gain access to the Predators top line, both power play units, and Josi is easily one of the top one of the top peripheral stat plays on the slate in the 99th percentile in shots+blocks over the past month. Nashville has drawn the second-most penalties in the league and Montreal owns the league’s seventh-worst penalty kill.
With the third-highest implied total and goal expectation on the slate, the Islanders top power play unit will likely be popular today on both sites:
The Islanders lead all teams on the slate in goals for per game (4.08) and trail only the Lightning in total fantasy points over the past month. Leddy’s shots have spiked from 1.82 per game over the past year to 2.83 over the past month and he leads the team in TOI over that same period. Tavares is a stud you want access to today, he ranks in the 99th percentile in goals, points, and power play shots over the past month. He should abuse the Flyers, who are in an absolute tailspin with five straight losses, but also one of the five teams today on the back half of a back-to-back.
A solid pivot off of the Islanders PP1 could be the aforementioned Boychuk (DraftKings – $4,400, FanDuel – $4,300) who is tied with Burns for the most shots+blocks over the past month.
While Tampa Bay understandably rates highly on both sites, it’s way easier to jam in a Lightning stack on FanDuel:
We don’t need to spend too much more time on why Stamkos and Kucherov are elite plays, but Namestnikov probably deserves much more love than he’s been getting. Not only is he in the 94th percentile in shots+blocks over the past month, but he’s also in the 70th percentile in blocks. That may not seem noteworthy, but keep in mind wingers tend to block far less shots than centers and defensemen; and he’s currently third at the position while also contributing 0.91 points per game.
Adding a goaltender to your stacks can always add tremendous value, so consider Vasilevskiy in your Lightning stacks as well. Intuitively, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to get a win.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, but ownership should be relatively flat on such a large slate lacking a massive favorite:
- Pittsburgh -196 vs. Vancouver
- Nashville -190 vs. Montreal
- Tampa Bay -163 vs. Chicago
- Minnesota -154 @ Buffalo
The Penguins have not yet announced a starter, but they have allowed the 11th-fewest shots on goal this year. As the highest money line favorite of the day, whoever starts will likely be popular, but the lower floor for cash games is notable since Vancouver owns the fourth-worst Corsi-For expectation on the slate.
Montreal owns the fourth-highest Corsi-For expectation tonight, which is part of the reason whoever starts in goal for Nashville is in one of the best spots of the night in regards to save prediction and the likelihood of a win. Be sure to check out our Starting Goalies page to confirm the Predators starter.
Vasilevskiy is a strong option as the second-largest favorite with the sixth-highest save prediction today. It may be tough to get there in cash games as the second-most expensive option on DraftKings at a position for which it historically makes sense to pay down.
Henrik Lundqvist could yield all kinds of upside in tournaments — road dog goalies tend to be overlooked — with the second-highest save prediction on the slate. At a position with a ton of variance, you can vastly outmaneuver the pack by rostering a low-owned goalie against a chalk offense, especially if they steal an unlikely win.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
