The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
We have just three football games between now and August (although Vince McMahon may have something to say about that). Just four teams remain, with one of them boasting a quarterback with more Super Bowl rings than the other starting QBs have combined playoff wins. Be sure to check out our Vegas Lines and Outliers articles, as well as our Market Share report, to stay on top of the latest Vegas and workload related trends heading into the conference title games. Let’s get it.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the two-game main slate, although it has wider applicability.
The Big Two
The two stars from last Sunday’s ‘Minnesota Miracle’ are accordingly DraftKings’ two highest-priced receivers for Championship Sunday:
- Adam Thielen ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) and Stefon Diggs ($6,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
The Vikings’ pair of star receivers are the only two top 15 wideouts in DraftKings points per game (PPG) that haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs. Go figure.
Purple pass receivers
Diggs’ 6-137-1 explosion and game-winning score deservingly stole the postgame shows, but Thielen’s 6-74-0 line on nine targets was impressive in its own right. He had to get most of the job done against Marshon Lattimore, PFF’s No. 4 overall cornerback this season. Thielen repeatedly proved capable of defeating one of the game’s best corners on the outside:
Adam Thielen and Marshon Lattimore were BATTLING last week. Thielen played a season-high 59 snaps as an outside WR: pic.twitter.com/dxKxNN8Wip
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 17, 2018
After a regular season where Thielen played 41 percent of his snaps from the slot, he lined up outside on 79 percent of his plays against the Saints. It’d behoove the Vikings to again feature Thielen on the outside, as Eagles nickel back Patrick Robinson allowed the third-lowest quarterback rating on balls thrown into his coverage among full-time slot corners this season. This leaves Ron Darby and Jalen Mills to cover Thielen and Diggs on the outside, each of whom ranks outside of the top 50 cornerbacks in yards allowed per cover snap this season (min. 25% snaps).
Diggs displayed his game-breaking ability at the best time possible last Sunday, but an easier matchup on the outside hardly guarantees him another productive day. He’s struggled to provide his usual dynamic ability when forced to play outdoors during his career:
- #DomeDiggs since 2015 (18 games): 7.6 tgts, 5.8 rec, 72.7 yds, 0.5 TDs, 16.8 DraftKings PPG
- Diggs outdoors (24 games): 7.1 tgts, 4.4 rec, 55.3 yds, 0.3 TDs, 12.0 DraftKings PPG
This isn’t to say Diggs is incapable of producing outdoors, but there are more factors to consider with the Vikings pass attack than just individual WR/CB matchups. Offenses have scored 10.5 fewer PPG at Lincoln Financial Field since the beginning of last season. Keenum won’t have time to take shots downfield if PFF’s 13th-ranked offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency struggles to contain the Eagles’ tenacious defensive line that includes five of PFF’s top-30 highest-graded pass rushers this season. Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage.
Diggs and Thielen each carry the top two projected ceilings and projected floors among wide receivers in our Pro Models, but they also carry slate-high ownership against the league’s fifth and seventh-ranked defense in overall and pass DVOA. Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see how chalky the Vikings receivers are at different contest sizes. Consider using our Lineup Builder to make Case Keenum-Diggs-Thielen stacks on Sunday.
Hot Routes
Jarius Wright ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), and Laquon Treadwell ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Wright played a season-high 36 snaps from the slot versus New Orleans, while Thielen tied a season-low 16 such snaps. Treadwell was essentially exiled from the field, playing a season-low 15 snaps. Wright’s elevated status is obviously great news for his workload, but he’ll have his hands full with Robinson, the Eagles’ aforementioned talented slot corner who is PFF’s No. 6 overall cornerback. Despite the tough matchup, Wright’s elevated snap count on the slate’s second-highest implied scoring offense makes him a viable punt play on DraftKings in particular, where he has a 94 percent Bargain Rating.
Alshon Jeffery ($4,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Nelson Agholor ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel), and Torrey Smith ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Jeffery’s 4-61-0 line last Sunday against the Falcons was a step in the right direction, but it again demonstrates his fairly low ceiling with Nick Foles, who has led the offense to just two touchdowns over his last nine quarters under center. Jeffery’s larger problem is Xavier Rhodes, who has managed to shut down the heavy majority of No. 1 receivers he’s shadowed this season:
- Antonio Brown: 11 tgts, 5-62-0
- Mike Evans: 12 tgts, 7-67-0
- Marvin Jones (twice): 5 tgts, 2-42-0. 9 tgts, 6-109-2
- Davante Adams: 10 tgts, 5-54-1
- Josh Doctson: 7 tgts, 4-30-0
- Julio Jones: 6 tgts, 2-24-0
- A.J. Green: 4 tgts, 2-30-0
- Michael Thomas: 13 tgts, 7-85-2
The only receivers to score on Rhodes managed to do so with a large quantity of targets, a luxury Jeffery may not be afforded. Jeffery’s 14 targets since Week 15 are the third most on the team. Agholor and Smith have received 19 and 11 looks, respectively, although the latter has managed to exceed 40 receiving yards just once since Week 5. Agholor has the best matchup of the group vs. Terence Newman and Mackensie Alexander – PFF’s No. 58 and 107th-ranked overall cornerbacks this season.
Exposure to Jeffery should be focused on DraftKings, where his 99 percent Bargain Rating is tied for the highest mark among all wide receivers. Agholor and Smith are better options on FanDuel. The whole unit will have their hands full with a Vikings defense that ranks among the top five units in fewest DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers this season (per our Trends Tool). Still, the Eagles pass offense would benefit from the potential absence of safety Andrew Sendejo (concussion, questionable). Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to view daily practice participation and estimated game statuses for each team’s starters.
Brandin Cooks ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Chris Hogan ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), and Danny Amendola ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): The Patriots delegated Kenny Britt and Phillip Dorsett to the sideline last week, as Hogan played 83 percent of the offense’s snaps. He resumed his role as the team’s red-zone dominator, converting his only catch into a four-yard touchdown. Cooks was a mere inches away from cashing in on multiple Tom Brady deep balls. Meanwhile Amendola picked apart the Titans underneath, racking up 13 targets – the most he’d seen in a game since 2013.
This week’s matchup might not be as pristine for Amendola. He could lose some targets and slot snaps to Rex Burkhead (knee, probable) and has a brutal matchup against underrated slot corner Aaron Colvin, who allowed the third-fewest yards per cover snap among full-time slot corners this season. He joins an exclusive club of just six corners to play at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps and not allow a touchdown. Cooks and Hogan should run most of their snaps against A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey – PFF’s No. 8 and No. 6 corners this season.
The Jaguars’ league-best defense in overall and pass DVOA gave up 42 points and 462 passing yards against the Steelers last Sunday, but they’re certainly still capable of causing Brady problems thanks to their talented secondary and the league’s second-best pass rush in adjusted sack rate. Hogan and Cooks carry two of the top five highest projected ceilings among wide receivers, while Amendola has a slate-low -3.3 Projected Plus/Minus.
The Model Wide Receivers
Just like their quarterback, the Jaguars wide receivers find themselves atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Dede Westbrook ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
- Marqise Lee ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
- Keelan Cole ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
- Allen Hurns ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel):
Blake Bortles has converted his 49 playoff pass attempts into a combined 301 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Due to in-season injuries from Lee and Hurns, these are the only games in which the offense has played with a fully-loaded receiving cast. It’s clear Bortles has more trust in some receivers than others:
Westbrook has been Bortles’ go-to target, but Lee and Cole have been the lone recipients of Bortles’ three passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. Only four teams utilized 3-WR sets less than the Jaguars this season (Sharp Football Stats), so Hurns’ lack of snaps and targets the past two weeks are likely more a result of the offense’s game plan than a demotion of some kind. He has the best individual matchup of the group against the Patriots, as slot corner Eric Rowe is PFF’s 18th-worst graded cornerback out of 122 qualified corners this season. Still, Hurns remains the fourth-most relevant receiver in the Jaguars’ run-first offense and his projected ownership of 13-16 percent doesn’t exactly make him a high-upside/low-ownership dart throw.
Westbrook and Lee will see a combination of Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore, both of whom have allowed a quarterback rating under 100 and less than 1.1 yards per cover snap this season. As FantasyLabs’ Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman noted in his aforementioned Vegas outliers article, this current Patriots defense is a different beast than the one we saw in September and October. Every quarterback they faced passed for a minimum of 300 yards in Weeks 1-6, but not one quarterback has surpassed that threshold since. The Patriots allowed an average of 10.6 DraftKings PPG with a +1.0 Plus/Minus to wide receivers in their first six games of the season compared to just 8.7 PPG and a -0.9 Plus/Minus since.
The Jaguars’ plethora of competent receivers are the only group this round that will be taking on a secondary ranked outside of the top seven units in pass DVOA. The Patriots’ 21st-ranked defense has improved throughout the season, but is still the softest unit on the slate in the week’s highest implied contest. Lee and Westbrook each carry the highest projected ceilings and floors among the group thanks to their status as the offense’s clear-cut top-two receivers, but Cole – and somewhat Hurns – offer contrarian value on DraftKings with Bargain Ratings over 96 percent.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
• Defense & Special Teams
Good luck this week!
News Updates
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Photo Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
